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1618_of_PsyChess
1618_of_PsyChess
Jun 29, 2019
0
#1
good morning, I was wondering, how could you work out the following problem in a statistics format: what are the chances that a decision played at move 10 in one chess game, is identical to the 10th move played in a second chess game? would love to hear your thoughts! in preparing for a statistics class at my college and I wanted to refresh myself with this topic! 😊 thank you for your thoughts! and best of luck in Your Games! Emilio A.
1618_of_PsyChess
1618_of_PsyChess
Jun 29, 2019
0
#2

PawnstormPossie wrote:

Probability of combinations

Is the information useful though?

Will this apply to random players, GMs, patzers only, a specific style, etc?

Are predictability/correlations a future focus?

Prescriptive analytics?

... 👁🧠👁... whoa.... yes, the information would be useful. it will apply to all players of chess. predictability and correlations are a future focus... and lastly, I'd like to ask what "patzers" are and "prescriptive analytics"? I am unfamiliar with these terms, and would like to educate myself on them. thank you for commenting! looking forward to our dialogue.

DiscipleOfKeres
DiscipleOfKeres
Jun 29, 2019
0
#3

Is this even possible to calculate? 10th move, the game can take some pretty wacky turns. If it is the same players following theoretical lines over and over, there might be a higher chance. My guess is you would have to look at grandmasters who have played each other 20 times or who are following fashion.

1618_of_PsyChess
1618_of_PsyChess
Jul 3, 2019
0
#4

PawnstormPossie wrote:

Also possible that you meant...

What's the probability of 2 games being played identically after 10 moves.

Or the probability of 2 games reaching the same postion after 10 moves & only the 10th moves required to be identical.

A long story short, be precise in what you want. Expect very large numbers after 9 moves.

Will respond when I can, for now however, thank you for commenting! I'd like to let you know that I will be and currently am (with the help of fellow classmates and professors from school) working to better define what kind of data we will be searching for. I'm excited to say that this is turning into a project, and I will soon be posting "better defined" entries. 😊 thank you everyone for commenting your thoughts! each comment honestly and significantly does, "Guide My Researching" 🙏😊 best of luck in Your games!