Interesting, but that last row is wrong. It's NEVER 100%
Yeah, they are clearly rounded to the nearest 1%.
Firstly, I should correct the formula. The stronger players score is actually this.
1 / (1 + 10^( -k / 400)
I slightly garbled it in an earlier post by rearranging it in my head. Ahem.
The only assumption of the Elo rating system is that the probabilities are near enough consistent. For the formula to work well when used to rate players, there is the assumption that it works regardless of which players actually meet. This is not a given.
If you have three players A, B and C, you have three scores for A v B, B v C and A v C, but there are only 2 degrees of freedom for ratings differences. The thing you need is that if the rating differences for A-B and B-C are worked out, and if you add them together, the formula gives the actual expected score for A against C. It turns out it works rather well. Professor Elo was well aware of this issue and checked the statistics were ok. There is another function that can also be used, which is quite different in form but only slightly different in shape.
If you invert the formula, you get that if you score S against a player, then s = 1 / (1 + 10^(D/400)) where D is the rating difference.
This means that D = 400 * (log_10( (S -1)/S) )
In this form you can see that D is actually a constant times the logarithm of the odds of winning ( because S -1 is the score for your opponent, S is your score).
So the fact that rating differences can be added is the same as saying odds can be multiplied.
If the odds for A against B are x and the odds for B against C are y then it is assumed that the odds for A against C are x * y. This seems quite intuitively reasonable, and turns out to be quite accurate.
Well, unfortunately, a ton of people on this site have a dellusion that they refuse to play anyone 50 points lower than them cause it will be TOO EASY LMAO. Those stupid rating filters.
you are right according to this chart they have only 57% chance of winning
exactly, and also statistics don't mean much when it comes to actually playing the game. Even if the game is easy, you get to practice your tactics. See how fast you can force mate ya know.