Obviously gains fall off as you climb, not to mention draws and losses hit you for more points. I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to reach ratings that are even above his performance ratings.
If he were regularly turning in 3100 and 3200 performance ratings, then sure, it's possible... but really 2900 is amazing enough. Lets take this 100 points at a time 
Fischer was also in the same position as Magnus...the cusp of "going where none other has gone before"...and we all know how he turned out...mad as a hat, some would say.
Fischer was mad to begin with.
Talent on a par with Morphy, Capablanca, Fischer, and Kasparov with rating inflation says that prospects look good.
Alot of talk about rating inflation, I can't speak on it though but USCF ratings have stayed pretty steady recently (IIRC there was a period of inflation 20-30 years ago so a 2100 player in the 80's or 90's is about as strong as a 2000 now). Can it be proven that this is not simply an increase in ability? Have FIDE ratings in general inflated or only among the top players?
He'll be able to make it - because he will raise the level/rating
of the elite once they are able to begin to emulate his style/strength.
I would have imagined 3000 unlikely for a decade or more. But Carlsen just keeps turning in wins. He plays almost exclusively in super-GM tournaments so he can continue rising when he is 100 points over most competitors (as did Fischer, as did Karpov, as did Kasparov).
He's averaged 20 points gained per year since first becoming the World #1, but that included time when some felt he allowed his modeling career to distract him. For Carlsen, that means there were some tournaments he didn't win. Those may be more rare these days. Who knows, what if the kid starts taking it seriously?
With the schedule he keeps, 30 points a year isn't at all unrealistic. He's gained 11 points in this tournament so far, and gained 13 in 8 games at London last month. Spring of 2017 could see Magnus at 3000 at just 30/yr.
hmmm buddy i see ur point....that wd b great
well in this tounament he had three consecutive wins.....may be he will beat kasparows record of 9 outta 13
Not convinced about 3000, but certainly 2900. He is currently 2871 in the lives rating list.
I agree with IM pfren.
He has a clear strategy. Get out of book early...and find the middle and end-game ASAP. He clearly has understood that he is superior, especially in his end-game...so he is playing to his strengths. He is playing Openings that not too long ago everyone was saying " can't play that, it will certainly be a draw". What I also admire is that he is not into the short draw BS. His peers know that Carlsen will test them to the limit- 50, 60, 70 move games, knowing that they will break sooner or later.
I think his peers are embarassed...or at least they should be. Sorry guys but "The Candidates" will be about who will get 2nd and 3rd...because the 1st place is already booked- this is in March, so I have already cleared my schedule...should we dare talk about the match we are all waiting to see? Anand vs Thor...oops Magnus? We will wait after The Candidates for that...
Not convinced about 3000, but certainly 2900. He is currently 2871 in the lives rating list.
I agree with IM pfren.
He has a clear strategy. Get out of book early...and find the middle and end-game ASAP. He clearly has understood that he is superior, especially in his end-game...so he is playing to his strengths. He is playing Openings that not too long ago everyone was saying " can't play that, it will certainly be a draw". What I also admire is that he is not into the short draw BS. His peers know that Carlsen will test them to the limit- 50, 60, 70 move games, knowing that they will break sooner or later.
I think his peers are embarassed...or at least they should be. Sorry guys but "The Candidates" will be about who will get 2nd and 3rd...because the 1st place is already booked- this is in March, so I have already cleared my schedule...should we dare talk about the match we are all waiting to see? Anand vs Thor...oops Magnus? We will wait after The Candidates for that...
YESTERDAY in an interview vishy anand while praising carlsen said that he is a great player who can play almost any position.so i think that he will definitly clear the candidates and the match of vishy and magnus will be a treat to watch
Although I like Anand, he must be shaking in his boots...seeing how the boy wonder has out-progressed all the super-GMs. Interestingly thought, Carlsen has a worst record against both Anand and Kramnik, though we may need add a pinch of salt to that fact, since that is historical data which does not reflect his current form. I am certain that chess fans will be glued in March.
You can't reach a rating of 3000 by just playing against the human top players. He has to beat computers to achieve such rating. And he doesn't want to play against computers. So he will never reach 3000...
Too many draws at the top level for him to get above 2950.
True it is possible but let's not put expectations on him with some arbitory number--let's enjoy his nice personality and outstanding chess as he is and it is now.
I was watching him play the other day and then he was interviewed and in the interview he was able to expouse on dozens of complex lines as if he were a supercomputer with human help. I have never seen an interview of a supergrandmaster who could grasp and explain so many complex lines with seemingly little effort. There never has been someone like him so far in the history of chess.
All the GM interviews they can spout lots of lines and (very deep) they had calculated during the game. The one with Carlsen he was doing it with a board, which is less impressive. The others I've seen are just casually mentioning plans and variations 10 moves deep. I've seen IMs blitz out a dozen variations a second in post modems on boards (probably showing off).
Not that Carlsen coudln't do it without a board, I'm sure he could, but recalling variations in an interview isn't that impressive to me to be honest.
In Carlsen's favor with present computers the knowledge and training exists
to reach over 3000.
magnus carlsen vs nakamura awesome game going on......computers are showing +7 oh another win for carlsen....hats off sir
In Carlsen's favor with present computers the knowledge and training exists
to reach over 3000.
hmmmm
This is Carlsens elo-performance during the Tata chess steel tournament in Wijk aan Zee:
| ELO-Performance | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Color | Ga | Po | % | ∅ | Per. |
 |
7 | 6½ | 92.86 | 2714 | 3136 |
 |
5 | 3 | 60.00 | 2733 | 2805 |
|
12 | 9½ | 79.17 | 2722 | 2952 |
Quite impressive!
The only way Carlsen could cross 3000 would be if we get about 20-30 2850-2900 rated players and he stays consistent for 10 years.
If the top players of today played against nothing but 2600 players it would be almost impossible to make 2800. The reason that six players have crossed the 2800 barrier is because they had a bunch of 2720-2770 players to play against.
Or to put it another way, in order for Magnus to be relatively as good as Fischer he'd have to reach 2935 if Lev Aronian stayed in second place at 2810.
The only way Carlsen could cross 3000 would be if we get about 20-30 2850-2900 rated players and he stays consistent for 10 years.
Theoretically, if he gets his game to a consistent 3000 standard, he should get there no matter how far behind the rest are. If there are no players close to him, that may only make a difference in that it will be harder to improve his game with no one pushing him even further.
If the top players of today played against nothing but 2600 players it would be almost impossible to make 2800. The reason that six players have crossed the 2800 barrier is because they had a bunch of 2720-2770 players to play against.
Or to put it another way, in order for Magnus to be relatively as good as Fischer he'd have to reach 2935 if Lev Aronian stayed in second place at 2810.
No. As a player pool increases and more people take it more seriously the harder it becomes to completely dominate as the old Masters did. If he put as much distance as that between himself and the no 2 he would almost certainly have become a "greater" player than Fischer.
At one point, I thought 2900 was impossible, even for Carlsen. Now, it looks like he may break it in the next few months!
Having said that, 3000 really is out of reach, even for Carlsen.