Well, to come back to Carlsen : he seems to have a quite stable rating now, between 2860 and 2880, as was said. Which means he is just a bit short of striking distance from 2900.
a very good tournament by Carlsen means around +10 elo points, so two very good tournaments in a row (which is quite possible obviously) should leave him around 2890.
He needs at least three very good performances in a row to reach 2900, which seems very unlikely for me at this moment.
Carlsen and the quest for 2900
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PDubya wrote:
There's a tendency to get excited about round numbers. 2700chess.com for example. The focus on players crossing 2800.
Traditionally 2400 = IM, 2500 = GM
I would like there to be 2600, 2700, 2800 and 2900 norms/titles. I think that would be really great. So even if you're no longer at that level (e.g. Aronian), you can have that title.
The trouble is the title Grandmaster is already such a good sounding title there is little to be added by adding to it, or creating a different title.
Super GM is a bit naff, Elite Master doesn't sound as good.
How about:
2800 = Lord of Chess
2900 = God of Chess
As was said at the beginning of the forum, the real next milestone is not 2900, but 2917, which is a prime number.
2903 = prime minister of chess.
You mean 2903 Angelo...
TChosen1 wrote:
You mean 2903 Angelo...
Oh, I forgot this one. Now I feel really, really ashamed.
it should be WC only after GM. but chess.com refers to magnus carlsen as GM -.- and fide card as well... http://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014
8128 : Perfect Master
ChessBooster wrote:
even if he reaches 2900 what does it means ? that he is a man from space or what? every strong player could run for highest ELO ever (Fischer if wanted to play, Gary, Kramnik, Aronian still could). Gary had 2852 i think, almost 15 years ago and he could run for 2900, all he needed is to play several tournaments and make +5 or +10 each which was easy for him those days.
it's just a fist of numbers nothing more than that.
/thread
i guess 3100 makes you a ladies man
I guess 3200 makes you a worldwide god
Carlsen's hypothetical quest to attain a 2900 rating resumes this week at the Gashimov Memorial.
The field is stellar, and unquestionably Candidates level in strength (2773 Elo Average). No less than three current or former Undisputed World Champions (Carlsen, Anand, Kramnik) are in the field, along with three of the strongest young Elite Masters (So, Giri, Caruana).
Against such a field Carlsen will need to score 6/9 to preserve his existing rating (no easy feat). A perfect 9/9 would take him to 2896, but realistically he will likely score around 6 to 6.5.
A 2800 rating beckons for the top half of the field. Caruana needs 5/9 to maintain his 2800+ level.
Anand can get back there with 6/9, while Giri can also get there with the same score. Kramnik will need 6.5, while So needs 7/9 after his mixed US Championship results.
MVL, Shak and Adams flesh out the solid line-up, along with local Mamedov, who only needs 3/9 to preserve his 2651 rating, an indication of just how strong this field is.
What are everyone's predictions? Hard to go past Carlsen for the win.
"realistically he will likely score around 6 to 6.5"
6.5 would mean +4 in only 9 rounds in such a strong field, I think 5.5 (+2) might be more realistic.
fabelhaft wrote:
"realistically he will likely score around 6 to 6.5"
6.5 would mean +4 in only 9 rounds in such a strong field, I think 5.5 (+2) might be more realistic.
In those close top level tournament, the winner almost always make at least 66%, and almost never more than 75%. Thus the likeliest result for Carlsen is 6/9 - which is logical, since it correspond to his rating.
PDubya, thanks for this insight!
AngeloPardi wrote:
fabelhaft wrote:
"realistically he will likely score around 6 to 6.5"
6.5 would mean +4 in only 9 rounds in such a strong field, I think 5.5 (+2) might be more realistic.
In those close top level tournament, the winner almost always make at least 66%, and almost never more than 75%. Thus the likeliest result for Carlsen is 6/9 - which is logical, since it correspond to his rating.
5.71 is his expected score, which is closest to 5.5, but that is without weighing in what the extra black means. At this level winning with black is quite tough, and Carlsen only has four white games. If he scores 100% in them and draws his black games he will get 6.5 but 100% against players like Kramnik et al won't be easy, and there is no guarantee he will be undefeated with black either.
I didn't do the computation so you are probably right. With an extra black it will be tougher.
A brilliant tournament by Carlsen so far has seen his rating rocket up to 2871.7. Currently his TPR is 3000+ and with 4 games remaining against So, Giri, Kramnik and Mamedov he is on track to threaten 2880.
What is notable among other players is what I am going to term "The 2800 curse", in which any player who officially attains 2800 (FIDE ratings list) will almost immediately plunge back down beneath it and continue falling. In the past year we've seen (approximately):
Aronian: 2835 to 2770
Caruana: 2835 (2851 live) to 2795
Grischuk: 2810 to 2786
Giri: 2802 to 2780
What this implies is these players are perhaps over rated, and as more games are played amongst the top pool of players they are now finding their true strengths. Interestingly, Anand is surging towards 2800, which confirms the belief among many pundits that he remains the second strongest player in the world.
| # | Name | Rating | Change | Tournament | Date | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anand | 2791 | ½ b | −1.0 | Gashimov Memorial (1) | 17.04.2015 | |
| 2 | Mamedyarov | 2754 | 1 w | +3.5 | Gashimov Memorial (2) | 18.04.2015 | |
| 3 | Caruana | 2802 | 1 b | +4.2 | Gashimov Memorial (3) | 19.04.2015 | |
| 4 | Adams | 2746 | ½ b | −1.6 | Gashimov Memorial (4) | 20.04.2015 | |
| 5 | Vachier-Lagrave | 2762 | 1 w | +3.6 | Gashimov Memorial (5) | 21.04.2015 |
PDubya wrote:
There's a tendency to get excited about round numbers. 2700chess.com for example. The focus on players crossing 2800.
Traditionally 2400 = IM, 2500 = GM
I would like there to be 2600, 2700, 2800 and 2900 norms/titles. I think that would be really great. So even if you're no longer at that level (e.g. Aronian), you can have that title.
The trouble is the title Grandmaster is already such a good sounding title there is little to be added by adding to it, or creating a different title.
Super GM is a bit naff, Elite Master doesn't sound as good.
How about:
2800 = Lord of Chess
2900 = God of Chess
.
But actually, the title Elite Master doesn't sound so bad. I've been thinking about it, and it has kinda grown on me.
Then, if that becomes too inflated, they can create a new title. World Master, perhaps.