Chess will never be solved, here's why

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tygxc

@5543
"Induction from a tiny sample of imperfect examples"
++ Induction from over 1000 perfect games with optimal play from both sides: ICCF WC Finals draws. Also from millions of human and engine games. Also from common sense.
It is possible to artificially construct a game that reaches a 7-men position with castling right,
but it is sure that it is not with optimal play from both sides.

MARattigan
tygxc  wrote:

@5543
"Induction from a tiny sample of imperfect examples"
++ Induction from over 1000 perfect games with optimal play from both sides: ICCF WC Finals draws. Also from millions of human and engine games. Also from common sense.
It is possible to artificially construct a game that reaches a 7-men position with castling right,
but it is sure that it is not with optimal play from both sides.

Induction from a tiny sample of of imperfect examples that don't necessarily use the same rules and are in many or most cases terminated by an inductive imperfect evaluation even.

Incidentally no show yet for your calculation of the theoretical result and error rates in my games here. Are you still working on it?

If you do that we can all concentrate on the topic instead of discussing your proposals.

Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@5543
"Induction from a tiny sample of imperfect examples"
++ Induction from a pathetically tiny sample of over 1000 believed to be by one imprecise human, but in no sense proven to be perfect games with believed to be by one imprecise human, but in no sense proven to be optimal play from both sides: ICCF WC Finals draws.

Also from millions of human and engine games most of which have even weaker claim to perfection (although, to be pedantic, there is no weaker claim than no claim at all). Also from common sense based on human induction from a tiny sample of games all of which are not provably perfect.

 

Mike_Kalish
tygxc wrote:

@5547
"Because I said so"
++ Indeed, I said so before. I repeat:





This is not helpful. I threw in the "Because I said so" as an analogy, and THAT is what you choose to respond to?  How about the part where you say "I know, because I know, because every serious chess player knows, because Grand Masters know."  That's how you know? My point, which you clearly missed, was that it's not enough to say "I know" without some supporting evidence. Maybe you feel you've already provided that, but if so, you could have cited it as a reference. But your statement was, prima facie, weak. 

MARattigan
tygxc wrote:
"earlier KNNKP" ++ Not relevant. A draw is claimed in 7 men, so 5 men is never reached. [line inserted to set context]

"Where does it say that in the FIDE handbook?"
++ All positions with 7 men or less are already strongly solved (apart from castling rights, which in practice are lost in a 7-men position.)

No. All positions with 7 men or less are not already strongly solved apart from castling rights; you just have a learning problem.
The over 1000 perfect games with optimal play from both sides we have from the ICCF world championship finals never go to 7 men: they claim an endgame teblebase draw.
Weakly solving Chess does the same.
Weakly solving Checkers did the same.

You didn't answer my question.

Incidentally still no show yet for your calculation of the theoretical result and error rates in my games here. Are you still working on it?

Once you've done that we can stop discussing your proposal.

It doesn't work.

Does the fact that it's not appeared mean you've already done it and reached the same conclusion, but you still post because you like to troll?

MARattigan

Especially not @Optimissed's.

Mike_Kalish

I didn't assume "we cannot know that". I just needed more from tygxc than just "I know because everyone knows". He may very well know, and everyone may very well know, but I was looking for some evidence from him, since he was the one making the claim.

MARattigan
tygxc  wrote:

@5544
"What do you need the supercomputers for?"
++ They do the bulk of the work: 3 engines, 5 years, 24/7.
The 3 good assistants work 5 years, 40 h/week to launch the calculations and to occasionally terminate them in case of a clear draw or loss so as to save engine time.

You obviously missed the point. 

I can post you a solution if we accept the definition of solution you are quoting. (I nearly said, "the definition of solution you are using", but of course that would be wrong.)

So again; why do you need the supercomputers?

Incidentally still no show yet for your calculation of the theoretical result and error rates in my games here. Are you still working on it?

Once you've done that we can stop discussing your proposal.

It doesn't work.

Does the fact that it's not appeared mean you've already done it and reached the same conclusion, but you still post because you like to troll?

MARattigan
tygxc  wrote:

...

++ Yes, some positions of 7 men may be useful to check facts, e.g. endgames KRPP vs. KRP.

...

Coincidentally, I have a batch of KRPP vs. KRP games running at the moment.

They take some time to complete because I give SF15 up to 34 minutes per move, but I'll post them as soon as possible.

Will you then check if your "calculations" work on that set?

Then we can stop discussing your proposals.

tygxc

@5561
'Other things being equal, any material gain, no matter how small, means success,' - Capablanca
++ 'Any material gain' is easy to see: 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses a bishop.
'Other things being equal' is more difficult to judge, that is why the good assistants should be ICCF (grand)masters. In this case it is easy: white has no compensation of any kind.
Thus white is lost. The provided analysis only confirms that: checkmate in 82.

tygxc

@5567
"I have a batch of KRPP vs. KRP games running at the moment"
++ Interesting. Let us see.

MARattigan
tygxc  wrote:

@5561
'Other things being equal, any material gain, no matter how small, means success,' - Capablanca
++ 'Any material gain' is easy to see: 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? loses a bishop.
'Other things being equal' is more difficult to judge, that is why the good assistants should be ICCF (grand)masters. In this case it is easy: white has no compensation of any kind.
Thus white is lost. The provided analysis only confirms that: checkmate in 82. Don't you mean 2 (for White)?

Any of the outright beginners in the chess craze at my local that I mentioned earlier could have told you that. 

Their judgement has about the same chance of correctness.

tygxc

@5566
"why do you need the supercomputers?"

++ To calculate all 10^17 relevant positions.
That takes 5 years on 3 engines of a billion positions per second.

MARattigan
tygxc wrote:

@5566

I can post you a solution if we accept the definition of solution you are quoting. (I nearly said, "the definition of solution you are using", but of course that would be wrong.) [line again inserted to set context]
"why do you need the supercomputers?"

++ To calculate all 10^17 relevant positions.
That takes 5 years on 3 engines of a billion positions per second.

My point was that according to your definition of "solve" none of that is necessary. Try again.

Mike_Kalish
Optimissed wrote:
mikekalish wrote:

I didn't assume "we cannot know that". I just needed more from tygxc than just "I know because everyone knows". He may very well know, and everyone may very well know, but I was looking for some evidence from him, since he was the one making the claim.

Yeah but maybe he doesn't express himself in the way you would prefer him to.

There's no "maybe" about it. He definitely didn't express himself the way I would have preferred. 

MARattigan
Optimissed wrote:
MARattigan wrote:
...


When you finally realised that you understood one of my posts and that it was correct, and you decided to argue the same way with Elroch, I was hardly holding my breath. ...

I didn't understand the post you're referring to. I try not to understand horsesh*t, otherwise I'd finish up as sane as you.

You had made a statement I happened to agree with, but without any cogent argument in support.

I made, in fact, a very minor point about the shambles of rules laid out in the FIDE laws.

Mike_Kalish
Optimissed wrote:

^^ That's for a reason, which it would be impolite to mention,.

Well, I have to say that I'm pleased to see politeness restored somewhere between Posts 5575 and 5577.  tongue

Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@5561
'Other things being equal, any material gain, no matter how small, means success,' - Capablanca

Steinitz - "I can give God pawn and move and still win"

Since all statements by world chess champions are true (@tygxc assures me) the conclusion is clear.

mpaetz
tygxc wrote:

@5519
"a solution awaits the development of much better engines or a breakthrough in methodology"
++ We already have engines that calculate a billion positions per second.
We already have a methodology.
Start from ICCF drawn games, explore 3 alternative lines at each white move.
Stop calculations when the good assistants determine an obvious draw or loss.
The 10^17 relevant positions can be done in 5 years.
If you deny the good assistants,
then it may well become 5 million years of irrelevant calculations.

Your proposal makes some assumptions I don't accept:

     Chess is inherently a draw. Ignoring ICCF won/lost games because "there must have a mistake" could miss a line of play that would indicate chess could be a win.

     That the "good assistants" could pinpoint the only three viable alternatives, and thinking there could only be three alternative moves. 

     Thinking the good assistants will always be correct in their assessment of what will be the "obvious" result. 

     Believing that present-day machines and programming cannot be relegated to "the dustbin of history" by any revolutionary advances that would make your five million years of calculation a joke.

mpaetz

     Again, just because I, or tygxc, or you, or Sveshnikov believes that chess is inherently a draw does NOT make it so. Starting with the idea that chess is a draw and achieving "not a proof or an attempted proof" but simply a reinforcement of our opinions is essentially worthless.

     If you had read the post you would realize that it was tygxc that used the phrase 'five million years" to pooh-pooh my belief that a more reliable proof is possible in the long run.