Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@12569

"It can be inductive like Tromp's method to establish the number of legal positions or like Monte Carlo Methods."

"Wrong" ++ Right. You can calculate pi, or e, or sqrt(2) with Monte Carlo Methods.

Jeez - it's as if you don't even understand that the ESTIMATES reached are UNCERTAIN.

"Using a chess/checkers engine to guide the construction of a weak solution is very useful" OK

"If you construct a supposed weak strategy for white and there is a single legal black move that leads to a position you have not analysed, you don't have a weak strategy."
++ I construct a weak strategy for black to draw, and can leave logically inferior white moves like 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? or 1 Nf3 d5 2 Ng1 unanalysed as trivial. If black can draw against the good moves, then black can a fortiori draw or even win against the bad moves. It is trivial.

Trivially invalid, yes.

Firstly, the examples you need to deal with are NOT a few random opening moves, they are quintillions of moves in positions never seen before. A low evaluation move can be the best move. Deeper versions of things like a queen sacrifice. 

TumoKonnin
tygxc wrote:

@12560

"17 grandmasters producing 1 ply each per 5 days means it would take you over 8000 years to produce the number of moves in the partial saved checkers database"
++ The 17 ICCF (grand)masters run 3,060 CPU for 2 years to consider 10^17 positions.
Schaeffer ran 50 CPU for 2 years to consider 10^14 positions to weakly solve Checkers.
The storage of 10^7 positions has nothing to do with it.

"which were right and which were wrong"
++ The absense of decisive games implies the absense of errors (?), and that implies the absense of error pairs (?)(?) i.e. error (?) + missed win (?). That the games end in certain draws retroactively justifies all black moves as fit to draw and all white moves as unfit to win.
As soon as all reasonable white moves are exhausted Chess is weakly solved.

"if they can't see anything to do they agree a draw instead" ++ This is disrespectful.
They play drawn positions a long time, trying to squeeze something out of nothing.
If a player has no hope to avoid checkmate, then he resigns.
If both players have no hope to checkmate, then they agree on a draw.

"start your calculations with Tromp's basic rules positions which take no account of it."
++ I start estimation from Gourion's positions. A position is defined by 9.2.
When a position is repeated 3 times it is a draw.

“The absence of decisive games implies there were no errors”

Total and utter garbage. Recall a drawn game, for example, my terrible game here: https://www.chess.com/game/live/117916202157

This is a stalemate, a draw. Now, imagine this game (no matter how much it sucks) is an ICCF game.

We don’t know if there was an extremely deep error in this game. But by your logic, there isn’t, because it is a drawn, but note my game (which represents an ICCF game) is total and utter trash. This is proof your argument is invalid because all you do is assume “if draw then it perfect game 🤪” which once again is utter bogus.

TumoKonnin
tygxc wrote:

@12570

"the probability that chess is not a draw is XXX"
++ The probability that chess is not a draw is 1/117^116 = 10^-240.

Omg tygxc, we keep saying that is literally INCORRECT, AND YET YOU KEEP ON USING IT.

tygxc

@12565

"So where are they?" ++ The 17 ICCF (grand)masters maintain a record of their analysis.
The moves played are a summary.
'I maintain both manual and electronic records.' - Edwards

"You only get 17 moves in 5 days to add to your solution."
++ More than that, also the logged analysis.

"sets of 100% SFvSF draws from winning tablebased positions"
++ Winning positions are irrelevant to weakly solving Chess: cannot be reached from the initial position with optimal play by both sides.
Besides the human behind the engines can handle KNN vs. KP, as Troitsky did.

"whether perfect play from the starting position would produce a decisive result or not"
++ Certainly not. See here.

"Is it Stockfish rings you up to check if its moves are reasonable or the players?"
++ No, it is the other way around. The human ICCF (grand)master decides which moves to submit to his engine and which not.

"I think SF is a superb programming effort" ++ ICCF is not Stockfish.
It is a human ICCF (grand)master + engines. human + engines > engine > human.
'For me, the key is planning, which computers do not do well — Petrosian-like evaluations of where pieces belong, what exchanges are needed, and what move orders are most precise within the long-term plan.' - Edwards

"what it does in simpler tablebased positions"
++ Which are irrelevant and which Troitsky could handle without any engine.

"both Stockfishes having no hope to checkmate doesn't mean the position is actually a draw" ++ An engine has no hopes or lack of it.
It are the human ICCF (grand)masters who propose, or accept a draw when they have no hope.
In TCEC the engines play on longer, but with the same result.

"your positions determine possible forward play under competition rules or correspond to the nodes searched by Stockfish and quoted as nodes/sec"
++ Diagram = placement of men on the board
Position = diagram + side to move + castling rights + en passant flag = FEN - halfmove clock - fullmove number
Node = position + history (tracks 3-fold repetition and 50-moves rule) + provisional heuristic evaluation e.g. +0.31

"Gourion's diagrams omit an unknown percentage of positions with promotions."
++ Tromp has calculated the number of positions with promotions to pieces not previously captured (including illegal positions). He established his fraction of legal / total around 9 promotions to pieces not previously captured.
0 1.9E40
1 3.8E41
2 3.6E42
3 2.2E43
4 9.5E43
5 3.0E44
6 7.2E44
7 1.3E45
8 1.8E45
9 1.9E45
10 1.4E45
11 7.2E44
12 1.7E44
13 7.3E42
14 4.5E40
15 5.5E37
16 1.1E34
Total 8.7E45

"the nodes/sec figures you quote are not positions/sec"
++ They are not indeed. Node = position + history + provisional heuristic evaluation.

tygxc

@12576

"A low evaluation move can be the best move" ++ Sure, that is not what I say.
'Chess is a generalised trade' - Botvinnik.
You can trade material, time, position.
You can never give up material, time, or position for nothing.
1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? gives up a bishop for nothing. Dismiss.
1 Nf3 d5 2 Ng1 gives up 2 tempi for nothing. Dismiss.
1 Nh3 gives up position compared to 1 Nf3. Dismiss.

tygxc

@12577

"Recall a drawn game, for example, my terrible game here"
++ I perform no statistics on 1 game, but on all 116 games, not on a selection of them.
I do not consider a fast time control game of a weak player, but 5 days/move of ICCF (grand)master + engines.

tygxc

@12574

"no word on tygxc's maths education" ++ More than any here and more than you will ever reach.

TumoKonnin
tygxc wrote:

@12574

"no word on tygxc's maths education" ++ More than any here and more than you will ever reach.

Just asking can u take a picture of ur certificate on maths?

TumoKonnin
tygxc wrote:

@12577

"Recall a drawn game, for example, my terrible game here"
++ I perform no statistics on 1 game, but on all 116 games, not on a selection of them.
I do not consider a fast time control game of a weak player, but 5 days/move of ICCF (grand)master + engines.

You didnt respond to the rest of my post.

MEGACHE3SE
tygxc wrote:

@12565

"So where are they?" ++ The 17 ICCF (grand)masters maintain a record of their analysis.
The moves played are a summary.
'I maintain both manual and electronic records.' - Edwards

he's asking for the weak solution analysis that you claim exists, the iccf analysis ≠ weak solution analysis.

btw gotta love the tygxc method of evidence: quote from one guy = all 17 of them.

"You only get 17 moves in 5 days to add to your solution."
++ More than that, also the logged analysis.

you dont actually, even if you blindly assume that the moves played in iccf are correct, there is even less evidence to claim that any of the other moves looked in analysisat are accurate.

"sets of 100% SFvSF draws from winning tablebased positions"
++ Winning positions are irrelevant to weakly solving Chess: cannot be reached from the initial position with optimal play by both sides.

Besides the human behind the engines can handle KNN vs. KP, as Troitsky did.

"whether perfect play from the starting position would produce a decisive result or not"
++ Certainly not. See here.

ah yes, as evidence for the claim that the ICCF games are perfect, use those same ICCF games as exeamples of perfect games. totally not circular logic

"I think SF is a superb programming effort" ++ ICCF is not Stockfish.
It is a human ICCF (grand)master + engines. human + engines > engine > human.
'For me, the key is planning, which computers do not do well — Petrosian-like evaluations of where pieces belong, what exchanges are needed, and what move orders are most precise within the long-term plan.' - Edwards

wow i didnt know random quotes changed programming facts.

"what it does in simpler tablebased positions"
++ Which are irrelevant and which Troitsky could handle without any engine.

cant call any position irrelevant without voidign the term solution.

"both Stockfishes having no hope to checkmate doesn't mean the position is actually a draw" ++ An engine has no hopes or lack of it.
It are the human ICCF (grand)masters who propose, or accept a draw when they have no hope.In TCEC the engines play on longer, but with the same result.

so basically you just keep assuming perfection.. as evidence for perfection.

tygxc

@12578

"we keep saying that is literally INCORRECT"
++ With what authority or arguments? What is then your literally CORRECT calculation?

TumoKonnin
tygxc wrote:

@12578

"we keep saying that is literally INCORRECT"
++ With what authority or arguments? What is then your literally CORRECT calculation?

The one we’ve been TELLING YOU

TumoKonnin

For the last few months!

MEGACHE3SE
tygxc wrote:

@12578

"we keep saying that is literally INCORRECT"
++ With what authority or arguments? What is then your literally CORRECT calculation?

oooh classic fallacies, there doesnt need to be a correct calculation provided to point out the inaccuracies in your own claims.

your "calculation" literally assumes the opposite of what you are calculating the chances of. its irrefutably incorrect.

i will say, it's hilarious that you consider yourself some judge of authority when you dont even have a math education past middle school.

MEGACHE3SE
tygxc wrote:

@12574

"no word on tygxc's maths education" ++ More than any here and more than you will ever reach.

still no word on tygxc's math education. why are you so scared of giving it?

tygxc

@12584

"if draw then it perfect game"
++ No, that is not what I say.
If you toss a coin and it lands heads, then it may be a fair coin.
If you toss a coin 116 times and it lands heads 116 times, then it is a loaded coin.

MEGACHE3SE
tygxc wrote:

@12577

"Recall a drawn game, for example, my terrible game here"
++ I perform no statistics on 1 game, but on all 116 games, not on a selection of them.
I do not consider a fast time control game of a weak player, but 5 days/move of ICCF (grand)master + engines.

yeah a different person playing a game makes suchhh a big difference in mathematical proof LMFAO

TumoKonnin

Also, wheres ur math degree? We’ve been waiting

tygxc

@12583

"can u take a picture of ur certificate on maths?"
++ I can, but I will not. Next you will ask a picture of my ID to see if my diploma's are mine.
Next you will ask for a picture of me with a newspaper to see if the ID is mine.
Privacy.

TumoKonnin
tygxc wrote:

@12583

"can u take a picture of ur certificate on maths?"
++ I can, but I will not. Next you will ask a picture of my ID to see if my diploma's are mine.
Next you will ask for a picture of me with a newspaper to see if the ID is mine.
Privacy.

And what makes you believe i would ask that?