Evaluations Wanted


I see this said from time to time in discussions like this. I have to wonder at the people who say it. They are obviously regurgitating something they have seen Grandmasters say, which is fine...
But practically speaking for almost everyone on this site.. this is hogwash. I see people bashing Computer Program's ability to play endgames and strategize in closed positions all the time.. but the fact is computers strategic play is better than your average player. It is better than your average club player... and in my opinion it is stronger (strategically) than your average IM.
Regarding the original topic of this thread... When I used to use Chessmaster 8000... I used to analyze Grandmaster games and it was extremely rare for either player (winner or loser) to have 100% agreement with chessmaster. The human element rears its ugly head in almost every game. Those were of course OTB games from grandmasters and not Correspondence games... but even amongst very strong players like GMs... 99.9% agreement through 6 games is highly unlikely.
Incidentally, my efforts to channel Capablanca with my Ouija board (this is not specifically prohibited in the rules) have met with less than desirable results. I am either not dealing with the Capablanca I think I am, or he has really let his chess skills go in the dark yonder.

This may be the best thing I've seen in the last month on Chess.com.


Just to confirm what someone has already said on this thread, computer analysis (I'm using Fritz as an example here, but I assume ChessMaster works similarly) can be adjusted to increase or decrease the number of comments by setting a 'mistake' level. Using 100 as the value for a pawn, if the level is set at 100, then Fritz will inform you if the move played in the game is worse than the move it thinks is best by more than a pawn's value. If it's worse, but by less than a pawn, it won't suggest it's improvement in the analysis.
This is the most likely explanation for the high degree of accuracy you describe. Even computers suggest different moves in the same positions, so unless your suspect is using exactly the same version of ChessMaster, it seems rather unlikely they are cheating.

My evaluation from this thread? The average person isn't too good with percentages.
There wree 6 games analyzed with a maximum game length of 37 moves. So at most 222 moves were analyzed (there were actually fewer, but we don't know the exact number). 221 correct moves out of 222 is 99.6%, not 99.9% or 99.99%. Since there were somewhat less than 222 moves analyzed and we shouldn't count moves that are in the opening book, I'd estimate 150 moves were really checked, putting the percentage correct around 99.3%.
On a more serious note, the percentage of moves that agree with a computer analysis depends greatly on how weak the opposition is. It is not so difficult to play flawlessly when your opponent consistently makes tactical errors. I think it's difficult to make these kinds of judgements based on statistics alone. You would have to examine particular moves. For example, there are times when a human plays a winning move that leads to a simple win where a computer would play a winning move that it believes to be stronger but leads to a more complex position.

Here's an obvious mathematical item not yet brought up, with an old name of the Peter Principle.
Everyone start with a 1200 rating, and gets matched with fairly like-rated folks. If your playing ability is quite a bit above that, you're going to win a lot of games until your rating here reaches it's approriate level. In fact, it's likely to overshoot and correct.
My own profile shows something like 9-10 straight wins and then a bunch of losses as the level of competetion went up, and now I'm something like 12-5-1.
At the same time, the chance that my move choices match Chessmaster's 99.99% of the time is zero. I don't think ever I've had a game (nor do many with ratings below 1800) without a tactical error, whether blunder or more subtle.

This may be the best thing I've seen in the last month on Chess.com.
Concur wholeheartedly with silentfilmstar's praise of Oginschile's last comment.
I also agree that this was the funniest comment I have read on Chess.com since it started. I suggest that oginschile resigns his current games with me asap and becomes a comedy writer instead.

"I suggest that oginschile resigns his current games with me asap and becomes a comedy writer instead."
No such luck. I'm gonna force you to mate me in 25 moves like always happens.

I can't find "that person" anywhere on the site. Are you sure that's their username, or did erik already ban him or her?
Sorry. I tried to resist.
Nice...that's like when Homer Simpson was working from home and reading directions for his job on how to work on his computer: "Next step, press any key. Where's the 'Any' key?"

In this thread I've been exposed as a vacuous hack writer incapable of asking a direct question as well as being an incompetent computer cheater. Fortunately, I've also been tele-psychoanalzed as an exhibitionist, so being exposed may not be that big a deal. On the bright side, I've also had some pretty good responses by various individuals of sound and rational minds which have given me a little more insight into the use of computer analysis in certain situations.
I'd now like to look at this from a slightly different perspective with an actual direct question.
If you were to use a computer program(s) to identify whether the moves of a particular game were generated by the human mind or by a computer algorithm, exactly what in the analysis would you consider indicative of computer use?

On another site this is (was) done using a statistical method. Essentially, the games are run through Fritz or some other engine using a script to automate the process. The matchup rate between the moves played and what Fritz thinks are the top three moves is noted. The details are obscure (deliberately I think) but if percentage of player moves matching Fritz reaches a certain threshold (about 85% I think) then that is cause for suspicion. On its own, this is not actually enough to condemn someone. The games are then examined by humans who determine whether it is likely that a human player would choose those moves. In some positions there will be one clearly best (or forced) move where anything up to 100% match would not be really surprising. In others there may be very little to choose between several moves and a player consistently matching engine choices could then be suspected of cheating.
Other factors that will affect things are the software used, the hardware it is run on, how the engine is set up (time for move, search depth etc.). It is also no use analysing opening moves, they may well come from the engine's opening book, they could equally well come from a database or book.

I remember seeing an analysis done by people who seemed to know what they were doing. Some may recall a few years ago people thought Fischer was playing blitz games online. He destroyed the best online talent, including a few blitz games with Nigel Short who apparently asked him some questions and was convinced that it was indeed Fischer.
The long and short of it was they determined the user was actually using an engine... chess tiger if i recall... but to throw any testers off... the user was displaying not only the best move but the second best move as well... and would at times make the second best move. In a blitz game, the second best move is often good enough to still win.
This certainly doesn't answer your direct question (Excellent job by the way directizing your questination), but I thought it was interesting the depths it can take to catch a wily cheater.
I just always figure if someone beats me, they probably cheated. No investigation required.



In Game Over: Kasparov versus the Machine, Kasparov made it very clear that computer style of play opposed to humans is like apples and oranges.
"The computer played like a machine, it was lousy, well not lousy, it did not pay any attention to King saftey."
He also said some things that computers do not have deep strategic thinking like humans and after watching the documentry it was pretty obvious that humans do not play like computers and it would be unatural to do so, so if this person plays in aggreement with Chessmaster 90% of the time you can bet your boots that he/she is cheating.

Thanks for your input, Cleptomania.
I never had any intention of accusing anyone. I came upon a situation that aroused my suspicions and piqued my curiosity as to whether I could somehow make an infallible determination concerning that person - a personal challenge, not a public one. I wasn't sure what the limited computer analysis actually revealed, so I put the issue in a public forum and received a crash course in compter analysis. As a rule, I don't believe that worrying about cheaters is worth the paranoia and too much "protection" or surveillance might actually be worse than none at all. Still, as an academic exercise, I would find it interesting to learn the indicative signs that differentiate your opponent's moves as human or computer-generated.
now, may I have my wallet back?