Expert Patzer

Very good point, bb_gum, and I agree. Sometimes after reviewing some of my games where I thought I killed it, I notice screw ups even without an engine analysis. You can definitely have a very different perspective on how well games were played from the winner, or losers standpoint.
What I'm talking about is a little different though. Some days I see the board really well, make few mistakes and play pretty strong chess. And those days aren't all wins, I lose as well but still feel like I played well. Other days I do really dumb things like miss basic forks and blunder a lot.
I wonder if mood has something to do with it. Maybe sometimes I'm bored of chess but play anyway out of habit, and other days I really feel like it. On chesstempo the other day my rating dropped from 2030 to 1786. I couldn't get any right. The next morning I went back to it and got the rating back to 2009 after 20 min. I don't understand it.

compare chess to say, tennis, both a one on one competition and both employing strategical tactical operations to achieve victory
kind of similar
but if i have a nagging injury or am otherwise physically hindered i know this before hand- i know what my condition is before a point is ever played
in chess, unless i have stayed up all night on a blitz or tactics trainer binder, it is much more difficult to pinpoint how well i can expect to perform
i can be studying, practicing, playing games- basically keeping sharp- do some tactics trainer and drop 200 rating points; i can play a live game and feel comfortable, make one innocuous move and all of a sudden im underwater
i definitely recognize what the op is talking about

Good way to put it. I would say lack of motivation could explain it at times.

compare chess to say, tennis, both a one on one competition and both employing strategical tactical operations to achieve victory
kind of similar
but if i have a nagging injury or am otherwise physically hindered i know this before hand- i know what my condition is before a point is ever played
in chess, unless i have stayed up all night on a blitz or tactics trainer binder, it is much more difficult to pinpoint how well i can expect to perform
i can be studying, practicing, playing games- basically keeping sharp- do some tactics trainer and drop 200 rating points; i can play a live game and feel comfortable, make one innocuous move and all of a sudden im underwater
i definitely recognize what the op is talking about
Yeah it's like sometimes we're dialed in, and other times far from it.

When I was a kid I had a lot of trouble with restlessness and focus. If something interested me it would have full access to my concentration, and I would excel at it. If something didn't interest me, I couldn't even force myself to focus, and of course would do poorly. I wonder if I've carried those focus problems into adulthood with me. I have no control over it at all, it just comes and goes.
Anyone else feel like they play at a completely different level every time they sit down for a bunch of games? Somedays I feel like I could go toe to toe with the big boys, other days I'm not getting beaten as much as I'm just losing games on my own, playing without the slightest common sense. We all have good and bad days for sure, but this seems drastic to me.