First move-advantage more of a believe than real?

Wow 8 in a row seems pretty good -- isn't that a 1 in 256 chance?

I think so, yeah.  This coin seemed to favor tails though.  Maybe my imagination.

Eons ago when I took statistics, I read about a professor who assigned students to either flip a coin 100 times and record the result or imagine flipping the coin and record the result.  He could almost always tell who flipped the coin and who imagined it.  Flippers would almost always get six in a row but the imaginers would never imagine more than five.

Haha, very cute. Although I could imagine myself imagining more than five.

You expect me to believe that Elubas?

Frankly I can't imagine you, imagining me imagining you imagining yourself imagining more than five.

Err... that may be due to technical difficulties though.

Yes, it is hard to imagine :)

Estragon, I wouldn't presume to lecture someone who's rating is so much higher than my own, but I've never thought of "equality" as being equivilant to "drawn." 

An equal game to me means "equal chances for either side to secure an advantage." While 'drawn' means "there is no way for either side to secure a winning advantage at all.  And those aren't the same thing at all. 

For example, we all know of opposite color bishop endings where one side is ahead a couple of pawns, but there is no way to make progress. The side with pawns has an advantage but no way to secure a winning advantage. By way of contrast,  we can have a very equal, but sharp, opening where the most likely outcome is a victory for either white or black and very few chances of a draw. Neither side has an advantage, but both sides have a chance to develop a winning advantage as play proceeds. 

Do you use the terms differently? 

More of a belief than real?  Do you use terms differently?

Sometimes a draw is just a draw.  Much like that famous Freudian Cigar.

Because Black has the advantage white is allowed to move first to

compensate for that...

Actually, the odds of flipping a coin and having it come up the same side five times in a row is 1/32 (3.125%).  Not exactly 50/50.

Excellent points, Estragon and Kingpatzer...

Actually 1/16. The first flip is guaranteed to be "one in a row."

Just compare:

http://members.aon.at/sfischl/white.txt

http://members.aon.at/sfischl/black.txt

One example:

Kramnik +69 -9 =105 with white, +16 -23 =147 with black (2000-09).

but the first flip is not guaranteed to be say "heads" so if you want to try and thow 5 heads in  a row it would be one out of 32.

What are the odds of an average player playing White against an equal player winning 5 in a row???  assume only one try to do this and conditions are also equal and both players at the top of their game...

Hmm, regarding the more general "five in a row," rather than "five heads in a row" or "five tails in a row," Jamie may have a point here. 

If it specifically had to be "five heads in a row," then of course if you start with a tails, you may as well start over. Starting over is not necessary if it just has to be five of one side, as four more tails will do. It is 100% certain that after the first flip, you will either demand four tails in a row (1/16), or four heads in a row (1/16). Whichever one that is, it's still a 1/16 chance.

And of course mathematically, if there is a 1/32 chance of getting five heads in a row, and a 1/32 chance of getting five tails in a row, then of course getting five of one side would be 2/32 since either of the two of those 32 possibilities would work.

So I guess waffllemaster is not quite as lucky as I thought

Did you know the average statistic is only 78% accurate??

Interesting point.  That would make a good trick question.

Black is on zugwang on the second move.

How about adding human + computer games together and divide by two for average statistics.

Black can chose a line he likes, but he will have to fight for equality nonetheless. 

That would be awesome. Initial position. White to play and draw :p (the best he can do).