I think they found when analyzing world championship games that an average of 12-14 moves was required before the computer started realizing their moves were good moves ie agreeing -- so I'd always considered this somewhat of a measuring stick.
Also it's not impractical to say that we could estimate how many moves, at least on average, a GM calculates ahead. Of course there are different styles of players, but it's not as if this is an impenetrable mystery.
I think calculation plays major part during end games and tactics
Tigergutt we're not after an exact number, we want an accurate range, like orangehonda posted. In fact I'm not even giving much of an estimate, I was only quoting you because your example is not how it really works. All I really know is they can calculate alot, most at least 10 moves if they really have to and that even goes for complex positions.
Elubias, they is all beatable OTB, the secret of thinkin' an' calculatin' is to know WHEN to do it - to do that you has to already have an innate understandin' of positions an' strategy - that takes time an' patience, an' is not acquired overnight or from any ol' book 
I'm recollecting the part of this thread where someone said that most games end after around fifteen moves. If people think so far ahead then why doesn't someone give up after 10 moves or five moves.
The calculation of GMs isn't limited by their ability to visualize... at least not nearly as much as it's limited by the quality of moves.
I can (and do) see 10 or 12 full moves ahead when I analyze deeply... but they're not quality moves so it doesn't matter much.
GMs are very good at narrowing down the reasonable moves, though. When they calculate, they know what moves to check on each branch, so that they can check 2 or 3 candidates on each instead of calculating all 25+ possible moves at each turn. Having such an ability is a must at that level, but of course it's only occasionally useful to calculate far. Other times it will waste you a lot of time.
I just wonder if most people don't realize that it's not the ability to visualize that holds strong players back (in most positions).
Usually the depth a position requires wont stress a GMs visualization ability to the limit. Experienced players error when they fail to even consider a key move, not because the end of their calculation became fuzzy and they were blocked from seeing any further.
It is often asked how many moves ahead a master or grandmaster can visualize, and there is a commonly held opinion that the difference between a top-class player and a beginner lies in his ability to calculate.
Admittedly, exact calculation is indispensable if a player is to make progress, but it is not the only skill required and is by no means the most important difference between the master and the average player.
There are many players who can produce good, accurate combinations but who nevertheless fail to achieve master strength. This is mainly because of their inability to draw up in advance a logical plan arising from the nature of the position.
It is only possible and indeed desirable to calculate specific variations when we are dealing with certain clearly defined positions. In most positions it is the correct plan which leads us to the required moves.
Ludek Pachman, from his masterwork Complete Chess Strategy
GrandMasters can Calculate Many full moves if they analize deeply ,
MAGNUS CARLSEN in a interview answerd :
Sometimes 15 to 20 moves ahead !!
But the trick is evaluating the position at the end of those calculations !!
But consider that more Moves you Analize more probably it is to make blunders. !!
So usually they Analize only the best 3 Full Moves .
The Keys for winning in Chess are :
1 Opening (Like a Book)
2 Develop (Quickly and Well)
3 Positions Look for best on Chessboard
4 Tempo (Gain)
5 Control (Center & Open Files)
6 Pawn Structure (Keep Solid)
7 King Safety (Defence)
8 Plan (Have One in every situation)
9 Moves (Make your Best) *
Opponents Moves (Stay Aware & Alert)
10 Think (During the Game Always Analize and Evaluate Your Position and Moves Deeply Considering that Sacrificeing 1 or 2 Pieces can lead to a WIN in other few Moves) !!!!!
Up to 12, as in no more than 12? For either analysis or visualization that's too low. I'm rated 1900 and I can analyze 12 moves deep. I'm so far below GM it's silly.
Although again, my 12 move variation will likely be worse than a GM's 10 second impression.
As Pfren's Pachman quote says, even some non-masters can calculate very well, but because our knowledge is low it doesn't make much difference.
Carlsen mentioned in an interview once that he can calculate as far as 20 moves, if needed. Though he said his usual amount is 4 to 5 moves ahead.
Carlsen mentioned in an interview once that he can calculate as far as 20 moves, if needed. Though he said his usual amount is 4 to 5 moves ahead.
Yeah, I hang around 3 to 6 moves. It's my impression this is about what all players do for an average position.
I just wonder if most people don't realize that it's not the ability to visualize that holds strong players back (in most positions).
Usually the depth a position requires wont stress a GMs visualization ability to the limit. Experienced players error when they fail to even consider a key move, not because the end of their calculation became fuzzy and they were blocked from seeing any further.
Right. But I wouldn't consider pure visualization trivial, either. I know when I was, say, under 1600, I often wasn't comfortable with holding a calculated position in my head. Because the position actually in front of me would be so different from what I was supposed to calculate, and if I forgot where each piece was in my calculation, I'd have to start all over again. So "holding" the position in your head long enough to still be able to assess it takes concentration for sure, and it's harder the deeper you go. But your point is valid too, there's certainly more to it than just visualizing.
Carlsen mentioned in an interview once that he can calculate as far as 20 moves, if needed. Though he said his usual amount is 4 to 5 moves ahead.
Yeah, I hang around 3 to 6 moves. It's my impression this is about what all players do for an average position.
On average, yeah. But it hugely depends on the circumstances. Naturally, up a whole rook in an endgame you just have to not hang a fork or your rook. On the other side, in a variation where it's just a bunch of queen checks and only your opponent's king position changes with each move, you can calculate 10-15 moves pretty easily (even most class players I would think), and oftentimes you should in that kind of scenario, as the cost is low and the benefit is high.
"Although again, my 12 move variation will likely be worse than a GM's 10 second impression."
Haha, yeah, that's so crazy.
Yeah, it definitely depends. There are those 1 or a few times per game where you need to see really deep into things. I'm sure 100% of GMs are better than me at it too.
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So Elubas, do you have this problem too? Some positions, lets say an endgame, I can hold the future position in my head easily even if it's far away.
But in some middlegame positions, where a lot of moves happen in a small space without much capturing, I notice I can get confused quickly. There's a lot to change from current to future position, and because it's mostly in one area the current position really distracts me.
elubas you are a strong chessplayer that i respect. i see you have some theories and thats fine. i think its impossible to say a exact number but you think it is. as long as you cant give me an exact number the burden of proof is on you. if you have a way to find out then go ahead. if you give me the number i will give up and admit you are right