I see it like any other threat or forcing move. After promotion the basic "threat" is to keep the material. So yes, you should consider not taking it. But only if you have a forcing move of your own to play. Usually this forcing move will need to have a threat that's worth ~8 points of material or more. (8 because they lost a pawn, but gained a queen.)
Is it best to capture a promoted pawn?
I had the same thought but also considered the type of. piece that might recapture. Strictly on point count, capturing with a minor piece makes more sense than with a rook recapture. 8-3=5 (N/B x Q) vs. 8-5=3 (R x Q) I also considered the rule of thumb that when down in material it is best to avoid simplifications and exchanges. I may not be able to prevent the pawn from promotion but I don't have to add insult to the injury by choosing to simplify. He can gain 8 but I can choose to keep my 5 on the board. Let him expend the tempo if he wants to simplify. So if I were to create my own rule of thumb, take the queen if you only give up a minor in exchange. Otherwise keep the rooks on the board.
Speaking in generalities of course, as a rule of thumb, should a defender consider NOT capturing a newly created Queen?