Is there such thing as "luck" in chess?

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lfPatriotGames wrote:
mikekalish wrote:
BrotherMoy wrote:

So then if you all agree that there is luck in chess because of human action, you must also believe that there is luck in math because of human action.

[nitpick]Math isn't a human action. It is a language designed to describe the physical word quantitatively.  DOING math is a human action.  [/nitpick]

That makes sense to me. Couldn't the same thing said of math also be said of chess? Isn't chess a big math problem? So if it's solveable (like a 6 piece endgame) then there really isn't any luck. But humans DOING chess is where the luck comes in. Which leads to the next question, how much luck is in computers playing chess?

 

Imagine the game of pachisi was solved, then tossing the dice or seashells would remain a random factor, whereas chess being solved would mean luck needed play no role if players can play from the initial position using the tablebase. 

My question for you is which game brings out the impact of luck in all human endeavour clearer, chess or pachisi?

There is no luck in tic-tac-toe with its 3x3 design and uniform pieces, but there is luck in chess with its 8x8 design and different pieces, because any game on these grounds goes beyond our limits.

But pachisi is obviously more about luck than chess. Or is it?

It may be in pachisi in the long run luck levels out and the better players win. Or it may be so simple to play that usually goodness levels out and only the luckier players can win. 

Chess has no dice or shells to toss (cards or lots to draw or coins to flip). But the complexity of structures and their capacities regularly makes it impossible for players of any strength to judge whether a continuation is sufficient or not. Even in this game fairer than life we have to use heuristics and can only try our luck. To be brought to this conclusion in chess, innocent of introducing any form of random generators, lets us smile. 

But, to return to the math and chess comparison, does chess itself contain luck? It doesn't matter if the tablebase is doable for us, the notion of the game being either a draw or a win and we just do not know it is enough to say chess as such contains no luck. Just if the tablebase would show a draw or a win after all, that seems a matter of luck (if we have a preference). 

Chess is conceived life-like, to be navigated by heuristics. Worse players will place worse bets, but even the best players will have to place bets and bets to feed memory with curiosity. Like in, I bet you would like to find out about this line, two!

 

 

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I know he has said that. I'm sorry to have to bring this up but his position regarding the coin toss was an anomaly, due to his stance and non-realistic definition regarding  luck.

If you think that makes your positions different, you would be mistaken. Just disregard the coin toss. Your pretence is rhetoric only.

No, because Coolout also believes that wind is not a source of luck in sports, for example.  This is *far* different from my position.  Try again.

LeoTSimoes26

yes

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

In real life, referring to someone, to one's peers, as devious and rather stupid would convey so much more efficiently that which one could only struggle to convey by playing that person's rather sordid game.

Therefore, it's only natural that one of us should have misunderstood Coolout. Where is he, by the way?

Another trip back to crazytown, I see.  I am not Coolout wink.png.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I think the two of you are extremely similar though. That isn't an implication about anything other than your similarity. It can be genuinely difficult to tell the difference. Different variations of similar tactics. 

Nope.  That's just you.  Nobody else here has harbored the notion that we are the same person.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

It's "far different" from your belief about the wind. It does not tell us that C's and your opinion of luck in chess differ from one another's and, indeed, they don't differ. I have a memory and you don't always stay on board with whichever story you're supposed to be running with at any given time.

Now stop trying to out-argue me even after you just lost the argument. It's irritating.

You haven't won an argument on the forums since your mid 60s.  I assume that's where the bitterness and bile comes from.

Let's see you produce a single instance of two posts I made that don't agree with each other.  You have (checks calendar) 9 years to choose from.  Go.

llama36
btickler wrote:
nMsALpg wrote:

We can't reliably quantify the strength of a move even after the move is made... so certainly the course of a game has some randomness to it.

Not being to perceive, understand or interpret an outcome is not the same as that outcome being random.

I didn't say the outcome is random, I said there's some randomness involved, which there is. Even when engines play, they play multiple games to determine which engine is better. This is because chess is a game of making educated guesses.

DiogenesDue
nMsALpg wrote:

I didn't say the outcome is random, I said there's some randomness involved, which there is. Even when engines play, they play multiple games to determine which engine is better. This is because chess is a game of making educated guesses.

...and educated guesses = skill-based decisions.  Not random luck.  Just because you cannot calculate out 30 moves does not mean anything that happens 30 moves down the road in a chess game is ergo luck.

llama36

Chess is dynamic enough that players don't have complete control over the types of positions that will arise. This means sometimes making the best decisions (based on the information you have) leads you to a bad outcome. For example when a position arises that is objectively good for you, but 1 out of 20 times will require a skill set you don't have, and is therefore practically bad for you.

When good decisions (which are logical decisions based on all the information available) lead to bad outcomes the process is functionally random.

llama36
btickler wrote:
nMsALpg wrote:

I didn't say the outcome is random, I said there's some randomness involved, which there is. Even when engines play, they play multiple games to determine which engine is better. This is because chess is a game of making educated guesses.

...and educated guesses = skill-based decisions.  Not random luck.  Just because you cannot calculate out 30 moves does not mean anything that happens 30 moves down the road in a chess game is ergo luck.

I feel like you're treating it as an all or nothing preposition. Chess is not a game of pure chance, of course. But it is also not a game where players are in complete control.

Tic-tac-toe, for example, is a game where a reasonably intelligent human player is in complete control of the outcome.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

Why go to all the trouble of misrepresenting yours and Coolout's attitude to luck in chess, when it was quite an innocent comment, regarding an obvious similarity, which many others will have picked up on? There can only be three possible motives. One is to cause confusion. One is to establish that you genuinely have different opinions, although that would seem a bit far fetched. Who would be convinced?

The final one is that you just like arguing for argument's sake and would argue that black's white if you thought you could get away with it. Same as Mr C, actually. Coincidentally, you both of you state you're on a mission to re-educate people who think wrongly and who make shameful posts. He's learning to express himself better in English and I think he copies people's styles. I've noticed him using yours almost word for word. Must make you feel good. Wish people would pretend to be like me. Think of how it would help my ego-problems!

Anyhow, I only mentioned all that because you really took me by surprise in denying a similarity regarding your beliefs in the absence of luck from chess.

It took you by surprise because you can't remember the course of the thread.  It's funny how the actual course of events is "far-fetched" for you.

You ought to recall that I am the poster who kept taking Coolout to task for calling "shameful" on everything/everyone.  You won't find my usage of that word anywhere on these forums other than in that context.  Your ego likes to twist things into pretzels you find yummy, but...the cake is a lie.  Sorry if that reference will fly by you.

DiogenesDue
nMsALpg wrote:

I feel like you're treating it as an all or nothing preposition. Chess is not a game of pure chance, of course. But it is also not a game where players are in complete control.

Tic-tac-toe, for example, is a game where a reasonably intelligent human player is in complete control of the outcome.

Tic-tac-toe is another game of perfect information, without the minimum luck possible for a game design.  The *only* difference between Chess and Tic-tac-toe in this context is that human beings cannot grasp how to force a win or draw in Chess...the former has 10^5 positions, and the latter has 10^44.

llama36
btickler wrote:
nMsALpg wrote:
btickler wrote:
nMsALpg wrote:

I didn't say the outcome is random, I said there's some randomness involved, which there is. Even when engines play, they play multiple games to determine which engine is better. This is because chess is a game of making educated guesses.

...and educated guesses = skill-based decisions.  Not random luck.  Just because you cannot calculate out 30 moves does not mean anything that happens 30 moves down the road in a chess game is ergo luck.

I feel like you're treating it as an all or nothing preposition. Chess is not a game of pure chance, of course. But it is also not a game where players are in complete control.

Tic-tac-toe, for example, is a game where a reasonably intelligent human player is in complete control of the outcome.

Tic-tac-toe is another game of perfect information, without the minimum luck possible for a game design.  The *only* between Chess and Tic-tac-toe in this context is that human beings cannot grasp how to force a win or draw in Chess.

Yes, because humans can't make use of the perfect information.

Let me know whether you agree with the following:

When "good decisions" (which are logical decisions based on all the information available) sometimes lead to bad outcomes, the process is functionally random.

"Good decisions" in chess sometimes lead to bad outcomes.

Therefore chess has some randomness.

DiogenesDue
nMsALpg wrote:

Yes, because humans can't make use of the perfect information.

Let me know whether you agree with the following:

When "good decisions" (which are logical decisions based on all the information available) sometimes lead to bad outcomes, the process is functionally random.

"Good decisions" in chess sometimes lead to bad outcomes.

Therefore chess has some randomness.

I disagree.  It's not "functionally" random, and it's not random.  Admitting that your position is only calling chess "functionally" random is a step in the right direction, though.

Don't make me prove to you that .999 repeating decimal = 1 wink.png.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I commented on that a few posts earlier. B&W or all or nothing thinking.

But you already admitted that I have said there is luck in chess.  Oops.  Are you going to tell us that I'm "functionally" all or nothing now?

llama36
btickler wrote:
nMsALpg wrote:

Yes, because humans can't make use of the perfect information.

Let me know whether you agree with the following:

When "good decisions" (which are logical decisions based on all the information available) sometimes lead to bad outcomes, the process is functionally random.

"Good decisions" in chess sometimes lead to bad outcomes.

Therefore chess has some randomness.

I disagree.  It's not "functionally" random, and it's not random.  Admitting that your position is only calling chess "functionally" random is a step in the right direction, though.

Don't make me prove to you that .999 repeating decimal = 1 .

I need to eat to stay alive, so I go to the store to purchase food. On the way I'm struck by lightening and as a result I don't stay alive.

It's not random in the sense that non-quantum laws of physics are predictable, but when good decisions result in bad outcomes we call that randomness or luck.

If you're hiding behind some level of philosophical determinism it'd be nice to be upfront about it.

DiogenesDue
nMsALpg wrote:

I need to eat to stay alive, so I go to the store to purchase food. On the way I'm struck by lightening and as a result I don't stay alive.

It's not random in the sense that non-quantum laws of physics are predictable, but when good decisions result in bad outcomes we call that randomness or luck.

If you're hiding behind some level of philosophical determinism it'd be nice to be upfront about it.

The lightning argument was about 100 pages ago.

There's no lightning in the logical construct of a chess game, nor anything remotely like it.  You don't even need a physical universe to play a game of chess.

 

llama36
btickler wrote:
nMsALpg wrote:
btickler wrote:
nMsALpg wrote:

Yes, because humans can't make use of the perfect information.

Let me know whether you agree with the following:

When "good decisions" (which are logical decisions based on all the information available) sometimes lead to bad outcomes, the process is functionally random.

"Good decisions" in chess sometimes lead to bad outcomes.

Therefore chess has some randomness.

I disagree.  It's not "functionally" random, and it's not random.  Admitting that your position is only calling chess "functionally" random is a step in the right direction, though.

Don't make me prove to you that .999 repeating decimal = 1 .

I need to eat to stay alive, so I go to the store to purchase food. On the way I'm struck by lightening and as a result I don't stay alive.

It's not random in the sense that non-quantum laws of physics are predictable, but when good decisions result in bad outcomes we call that randomness or luck.

If you're hiding behind some level of philosophical determinism it'd be nice to be upfront about it.

The lightning argument was about 100 pages ago.

There's no lightning in the logical construct of a chess game, nor anything remotely like it.

 

The lightening isn't an important part of the logic chain. I'd rather you address the point I'm making about good decisions resulting in bad outcomes, which happens all the time in day to day life.

DiogenesDue
nMsALpg wrote:

The lightening isn't an important part of the logic chain. I'd rather you address the point I'm making about good decisions resulting in bad outcomes, which happens all the time in day to day life.

I don't need to, because this discussion is about the game of chess, not day to day life.

llama36
btickler wrote:
nMsALpg wrote:

The lightening isn't an important part of the logic chain. I'd rather you address the point I'm making about good decisions resulting in bad outcomes, which happens all the time in day to day life.

I don't need to, because this discussion is about the game of chess, not day to day life.

You seem to like to dodge. Is that why this topic has lasted so many pages?

Let me try to understand. Are you disagreeing that in a game of chess good decisions can result in bad outcomes?