Yes, 5 defenders if black just keeps his knights in the same spot, which, well, he might not want to do for the whole game. And again, just because right now black has more defenders of e4 than white, doesn't mean he always will.
Black could try blockading and I'm sure that doesn't lose, but it's a pretty defensive plan. But I would agree that it's difficult for white to get control of either b5 or e4.
Even in tournament games I tend to evaluate things like this... which often leads to middlegame errors because positions are more dynamic than that (even sometimes in endgames this causes me to error)
But with the engine backing me up I feel a little safer saying these things 
Well, I put it in the engine without the c3 knight or f8 bishop and I tried to hold. The engine saced a pawn to play b5 and claimed +3
So maybe I'm wrong here.
Ah, yeah the engine would do something like that. But yeah just as an example, if black's knights want to stay on their "solid blockading area" then I'm not sure what's stopping white from playing Qd3, Re1 and f3 for example. Maybe the engine has a concrete response to that, but that's chess. It's not that the position is dead or something, just balanced, with both sides having plans and counters to those plans.
It would be an interesting test position between two players. Play a few G/20 (or something) from that position and then check your analysis and games vs an engine.
lol, somehow Na4 looks like an annoying move, just trying to put a knight on c5, and ...b6 to defend against that might be a move black doesn't want to play. Nothing too special I guess, but it's not like white doesn't have any possible ideas. Even I admitted right from the start that white has a tough time making a plan, but that doesn't mean it's impossible, just that it's tough :)
Should be around -0,4
And I generally struggle with these kinds of positions too. I often overestimate the side with the material advantage even though the rook might not be doing anything to be happy about. And then in some other game I try to be "different" and sac the exchange, and it goes completely wrong. But, I've been working hard on this stuff and I think I'm a lot better with it, now.
But yeah, I would say, don't discount e4 just because white hasn't organized such a push yet. All he has to do is, well, organize it, and then things aren't as clear. Especially in this kind of position where black is being a bit defensive, just letting white set up his position.
Yeah, I'm liking white now. In a real game I'd be playing for a win for sure, but now even in analysis I'm thinking white may be winning (or close to it). If black can't stop the breaks then I'm not sure what he's doing.
Without counting it may look like black is better, but notice white is up in material and has no weaknesses.
Well, I was thinking black would try for some kind of kingside push at the right moment. And that, if the kingside opened up, the fact that black has more minor pieces might allow him to do well on that side of the board, despite the fact that his king is open. I guess it kind of depends on what white does. I think black has to come up with counters to white's plans, he can't just sit there and let white play e4. I think black should have counters, but he has to be resourceful.
So, yeah, I'm going from slight advantage to white to, moderate advantage, maybe +.4 or something.
Yeah, I was looking for a way to e.g. make f4 work. I tend to be pessimistic about these kinds of breaks, but it may be better than passive defense.
Yeah, black's pieces look nice, and you might say, well the minors are just as good as the rooks so who cares. But it seems like there's something too... quiet, about the position, that I didn't pick up on from the start. I mean, black has nice pieces when he sacs the exchange in the sicilian (...Rxc3), but what really makes that work for him is that he has real targets and outposts. He can simply try to win white's queenside pawns, after which he can push his pawns there I guess (I don't play the sicilian with either color so who knows). But there's energy to that exchange sac. This... not so much. You wonder if black's not just waiting for white to squash him, slowly but surely.
In that regard, if you move white's pawn from a2 to b2 (or move white's b3 pawn to a3, but that one is a little too obviously bad for white to be interesting), giving him doubled b pawns, now, maybe black is doing quite well. He would have real targets, could put something on the b4 outpost, basically now his pieces actually have something to do. He's not just waiting anymore. Black has good pieces, but he needs something to do with them.
Hard to believe opening the h file will be useful for black.
I know this is a really silly position, but for example
Seems to be the maximum black could hope for over there.
By the time something like this happens, surely the b5 break (or something similar on the queenside) will be generating play for white.
To post #40: It's not a matter of belief. The moment the h file gets opened, the less safe space for White's King. In the position you're showing, you're just forgetting Black's Knight on e4 and the pressure on f2 and g3. On the other hand, you also gave the open f file for free, meaning Rh7–Rf7 carries a heavier punch.
About the 'minority attack' some people propose here... get serious. The moment White starts pushing his Queen side pawns, the moment Black goes mediaeval on White's King. Not to mention that White's Queen's side pawns will be easier to attack, and Rooks are awful defenders.
If only for concept, the minority attack is countered with attack on White's King, typically by pieces on g2 and h2, trying to force pawn advances to fuel Black's activity. Here, they're already advanced, Black's a pawn up while White lacks the pawn on d4. Then, the recipe b4–b5 can't work as White's too far behind on each side's plans.
Help me understand, because I'm having trouble imagining the ideal sort of position for black.
Here's an example of what I'm currently imagining (the in between moves aren't great of course, but I like white quite a lot after move 30)
The kingside seems to take a very long time to prepare. I don't know why you say white can't fight on the queenside.
The engine helped me find this for example:
I show a variation where black plays a6 and the knight is sacrificed on c6 anyway.
But even if white does not sacrifice, white can play b5 to undermine d5. Yes black can play c5 but d5 will be very weak.
23...Rf8 hoping for g5 f4 with pressure on f2. Ok, now I understand your idea better. If the computer didn't show me the sacrifice on c6 I would agree with you.
I show a variation where black plays a6 and the knight is sacrificed on c6 anyway.
But even if white does not sacrifice, white can play b5 to undermine d5. Yes black can play c5 but d5 will be very weak.
23...Rf8 hoping for g5 f4 with pressure on f2. Ok, now I understand your idea better. If the computer didn't show me the sacrifice on c6 I would agree with you.
The Knight is sac'd on c6 for purposes the engine knows but you don't indicate. Interesting. Then you disregard engine's choice and still say b4–b5 is an option, because d5 is weak as it's attacked by a Rook and defended by a Knight. I fail to see how that qualifies as weakness. And engine's choice doesn't agree with your opinion either.
The moment you see that the engine's proposal is giving a Knight for two pawns and activity, the moment you should understand that, by positional means, White game is inferior. And, in the position you give, Black's Knights have pawn and piece support in the center, while White's Bishop is shut off. For instance, after 26...Nc4 White has to work on how to defend his Queen's side pawns, and now it's White who's in material disadvantage.
You said b5 makes no sense for white without a pawn on d4, so I'm giving a reason that b5 works, at least in one position.
Material is equal after white plays the sacrifice, but I agree that black looks good, at least to my human eye. The engine does not agree though. But ok, white does not have to sacrifice yet. The idea is to show white can play on that side of the board. He could wait for black to start moving on the kingside.
I also agree that I misunderstood the position (and probably still don't understand it very well) but the engine is saying white can play against black's queenside pawns.
I mean... that might sound crazy because usually bishop for c3 knight in that structure would mean all the dark squares are dangerously weak. But if the blockade holds then neither of white's rooks can play (at least that's what it seems like to me).