Predictions: How Long Will He be Champ?

How long do you think Carlsen will reign as World Chess Champion? 

I think it will be similiar in length to that of Karpov and Kasparov... at least 10 -15 years.

What do you think?

Not for very long. There are too many good player for him to keep his title for more than 10 years. I hope he gets defeated next year since Carlsen is very unlikeable to me, if not my least favorite player.  He will probably last for 8 years though.

i will defeat him within 5 years.

I don't expect anyone in the current top 20 (except young ones like Giri and Caruana) will be able to take the WC title from him period.  10 title defenses, 20 title defenses, doesn't matter.

How long though?  Don't know.  10-15 years wouldn't surprise me.

less than ten years, he will become bored.

Did Karpov or Kasparov get bored? :)

I honestly think that it won't be as long as some assume. Not because he doesn't have the talent (I still think he's improving) but because he's accomplished everything now. I'm not predicting a Fischer type of retirement or anything like that but think about it, he's earned more than any chessplayer for several years before he won the world championship. He's had it goin' on like a pot of neck bones (American hood slang for those of you who are wondering wtf?).

It seems as though he's been subjected to the question of not 'can you win the world championship' but rather 'when are you going to win the world championship'? Well, now that's a moot point. He's earned 3M this year, at least 1.5 for a few, & probably a couple of lean years of only a Mill or so. I hope he invested well. He might do good financially from chess for a couple of more years but I think his interests are going to reach out to broader horizons.

I don't know.  He stopped school to do chess and he's a fighter at the board.  He gives level headed responses, prefers maneuvering positions, and often appears very clam but I think he has competitive fire on the inside.  You may be right, and I certainly don't know Carlsen personally, but it would surprise me if he left chess to do something else.

I think he has the potential to be one of the greatest... He does have youth on his side.

Agree, #8. He won't have the fighting spirit like he had. Time for him to move on. Now he is the champion, he will be the target to beat. In a tournament, even a player of last place will try to beat him. Because beating the champion is like winning the tournament.

Nice picture bean.

Well, he has been the #1 rated player for some time... you dont think the GM's the world over had extra incentive already to beat the highest rated player in the world when ever Carlsen sat across the board from them? :)

That makes too much sense.

That's a very nice sunset. Where is it?

The champion will always be the target. Even Fischer had an outstanding records prior to he being a champion. He would be thought as 2nd when he played in the team "the rest of the world".

When Anand was the champion, beating Anand had more incentive than beating the highest rated player.

You make some good point Mr. Bean... plus Im a huge fan of your comedy.

Still... players always had incentive to beat Carlsen and now more so... yes. But i think he will rise to the ocassion.

Agdestein (Carlsen's former coach) was asked what Carlsen would aspire to after winning the World Championship, and he answered that he would seek the same thing he has always sought: perfection!

As long as he wants that and feels he is still getting closer to it, I believe that chess will hold his interest. He could keep improving for another ten years still, and it's hard to see at the moment who could seriously challenge him in the near future, but time will tell.

No it didn't. People spoke much more highly of somebody beating Carlsen than of beating Anand.

My money is on Wei Yi, 14 yrs old and 2600 rating. But again, many young players showed a lot of promise at a young age, only to fizzle out after hitting their ceiling.

Leko, Karjakin, Bu Xiangzi, Radjabov....etc, come to mind.

There is only Caruana IMO who may have a shot....but he needs to improve greatly by next year and be more consistent.

I think he'll keep the title for the next few years at least. Possibly longer....The most serious threat to the title is himself. Success can be an enemy. If he doesn't continue to challenge himself to get better. If he lets success go to his head.... then he will likely fall. If he keeps pushing himself and working on his game, I see no massive threat looming on the horizon. Carlsen himself will be the biggest factor on how long he reigns as WCC. Unlike Fischer, he does have outside interests and relationships. He needs to maintain a ballance. I think he can. But only time will tell for sure. Next years candidates match will be very interesting.