True or False Chess is a Draw with Best Play from Both Sides

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DiogenesDue
ponz111 wrote:

PATRIOT  We can only go by what you actually post--not something that you might have intended to post?

The funny part is posting a "less obvious position" example that still has an obvious resolution.

DiogenesDue
MARattigan wrote:

 

The Nalimov EGTBs in any case are overkill. You have completely solved (Basic Rules) chess if you can produce a routine that guarantees a win from any winning position. It doesn't have to be in the minimum number of moves and it doesn't need to produce more than one move for a given position.

A chess beginner with an aptitude for programming could probably produce a routine to replace the 14 KB KRK Nalimov EGTB in less than a couple of hundred bytes if you drop that overkill. I could also replace the 1 MB + KBNK EGTB in around 1 KB with the same proviso.

Such EGTB replacement routines are no doubt possible for all generic endgames (including all 32 pieces). Moreover I think the ratio of the size of such routines as a fraction of the corresponding EGTB size would probably exponentially decrease with EGTB size.

The problem is, of course, that the larger the EGTB size, the harder is the analysis for such replacement  routines, but this is not the same as saying that such routines do not exist.

If storage capacities continue to grow at their historical rate, I wouldn't be surprised if in a decade or two, a complete solution to chess would fit on the average person's mobile. I would be surprised if it actually did.   

You're posting a paradox wink.png.  There is no "solving" for "basic chess rules" that way.  If you want to evaluate "winning positions", then you have to prove what is actually, provably "winning" first.  Doing that requires traversing the 10^46.7 positions.  It's not enough to say "this result draws/wins every game ever played" when every game ever played by man or engines is still a tiny fraction of total games.

An extrapolated proof is only good if you can be certain your extrapolations are valid, and in this case, you can't prove your extrapolations are valid without looking at all the positions and backing it out.

If you want to solve chess, as in the definition of "solved games" ala checkers, there isn't a shortcut.  Even if you were certain you had the solution, how would you even prove it was correct?  You'd still have to traverse the 10^46.7 positions...

P.S. If a chess beginner could just write a 100 byte routine and solve the game, it would have been done by now, because there has been a good amount of interest.  Any engine developer ala Hans Berliner or whomever could have taken it on long ago.  Don't try to posit an easy solution that you just don't have the time or will to come up yourself.  You sound like Geodexic happy.png.

You are looking at a problem with 10^46.7 as the result set and then saying you can increase the calculating efficiency from 14K to less than 1K.  Great.  Only 45 orders of magnitude to go.  This argument has been put forth dozens of times in the "will computers ever solve chess?" thread, but reducing the problem set by even 99.999999% still does not make a realistic dent in the calculation and storage required.  It's still galaxy sized supercomputers trying to store a solution the universe isn't big enough to hold.

Thee_Ghostess_Lola

izzit ok to feel frazzled already ?

cartoon-tired-sleepy-woman-weak-health_68196-381.jpg

lfPatriotGames
GMproposedsolutions wrote:

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! posts 3538 and 3539

Though not related to a proof, I tried what I could to steer those studying bot versus bot to hone in on the most promising lines leading white to a forced win. Seems that's not their focus but wish it were.

Such as when Leela beats SF 5% of the time and 95% are draws, I saw let's look at those 5% wins and do more studies including for the same opening lines, make Leela play against Leela.

Why not. It would be interesting if eventually it's not 5%, but rather .001% or something wins and 99.999% draws. But nobody, man or machine, can figure out why something keeps winning that small percentage. 

ponz111

PATRIOT   If you look at the 5% [not sure if this is correct percentage] wins that Lela might beat stockfish it is not the same line over an over. 

Believe me if Lela saw a line that always wins she would play it.

Why does Lela win  a small percentage only vs stockfish??The answer is rather easy.  The game of chess is a draw if both sides play without error.  Sometimes stockfish makes an error.

lfPatriotGames
ponz111 wrote:

PATRIOT   If you look at the 5% [not sure if this is correct percentage] wins that Lela might beat stockfish it is not the same line over an over. 

Believe me if Lela saw a line that always wins she would play it.

Why does Lela win  a small percentage only vs stockfish??The answer is rather easy.  The game of chess is a draw if both sides play without error.  Sometimes stockfish makes an error.

Could be. Or it could be that they are getting closer to a forced win. I'm sure you are right, it's not the same line every time. But maybe each of those wins (and draws) is more knowledge about what it takes to force a win. Maybe its far too early to know which is the actual result of chess. Maybe when the win rate gets down to .0001% then it will be discovered what the forced win is. 

Just curious, do you know if any of those wins were with black?

Prometheus_Fuschs
btickler escribió:
MARattigan wrote:

 

The Nalimov EGTBs in any case are overkill. You have completely solved (Basic Rules) chess if you can produce a routine that guarantees a win from any winning position. It doesn't have to be in the minimum number of moves and it doesn't need to produce more than one move for a given position.

A chess beginner with an aptitude for programming could probably produce a routine to replace the 14 KB KRK Nalimov EGTB in less than a couple of hundred bytes if you drop that overkill. I could also replace the 1 MB + KBNK EGTB in around 1 KB with the same proviso.

Such EGTB replacement routines are no doubt possible for all generic endgames (including all 32 pieces). Moreover I think the ratio of the size of such routines as a fraction of the corresponding EGTB size would probably exponentially decrease with EGTB size.

The problem is, of course, that the larger the EGTB size, the harder is the analysis for such replacement  routines, but this is not the same as saying that such routines do not exist.

If storage capacities continue to grow at their historical rate, I wouldn't be surprised if in a decade or two, a complete solution to chess would fit on the average person's mobile. I would be surprised if it actually did.   

You're posting a paradox .  There is no "solving" for "basic chess rules" that way.  If you want to evaluate "winning positions", then you have to prove what is actually, provably "winning" first.  Doing that requires traversing the 10^46.7 positions.  It's not enough to say "this result draws/wins every game ever played" when every game ever played by man or engines is still a tiny fraction of total games.

An extrapolated proof is only good if you can be certain your extrapolations are valid, and in this case, you can't prove your extrapolations are valid without looking at all the positions and backing it out.

If you want to solve chess, as in the definition of "solved games" ala checkers, there isn't a shortcut.  Even if you were certain you had the solution, how would you even prove it was correct?  You'd still have to traverse the 10^46.7 positions...

P.S. If a chess beginner could just write a 100 byte routine and solve the game, it would have been done by now, because there has been a good amount of interest.  Any engine developer ala Hans Berliner or whomever could have taken it on long ago.  Don't try to posit an easy solution that you just don't have the time or will to come up yourself.  You sound like Geodexic .

You are looking at a problem with 10^46.7 as the result set and then saying you can increase the calculating efficiency from 14K to less than 1K.  Great.  Only 45 orders of magnitude to go.  This argument has been put forth dozens of times in the "will computers ever solve chess?" thread, but reducing the problem set by even 99.999999% still does not make a realistic dent in the calculation and storage required.  It's still galaxy sized supercomputers trying to store a solution the universe isn't big enough to hold.

No, you do not need to traverse all of the game tree to make a proof. It's the only way we know of to prove it but it doesn't mean it's the only possible way we could prove it. Wikipedia explicitly says so...

ponz111

PATRIOT I DON'T KNOW IF ANY OF THE WINS YOU MENTIONED WERE WITH BLACK? 

lfPatriotGames
ponz111 wrote:

PATRIOT I DON'T KNOW IF ANY OF THE WINS YOU MENTIONED WERE WITH BLACK? 

I dont know. I'm asking you. You're asking me if you dont know. How should I know if you know or dont know.  I don't know if you dont know. Just seems like a very odd question. 

ponz111

GMprop   What part of my reasoning do you not understand.?? 

Yes players get stronger and stronger the win rate will be lower and lower, I have always said that and it is happening.

But if I understand what you are posting is that you think the win rate will eventually go down to something like 0.00001% wins and you somehow think that good lines could be found in that. 0.00001%??   You will only find that one of the players made a mistake. You will not see correspondence players copying that line as for one thing there are many first opening moves not related to that sole line and and--correspondence players will see the mistake and avoid such a line.

I am curious---do you really believe with best play there is a forced win from the opening position???

If so-who do you think wins--White or Black??

Question for you: Do you understand in some cases the win  rate has gone down to zero??

 

 

DiogenesDue
Prometheus_Fuschs wrote:
 

No, you do not need to traverse all of the game tree to make a proof. It's the only way we know of to prove it but it doesn't mean it's the only possible way we could prove it. Wikipedia explicitly says so...

Define what you think you mean by"game tree" wink.png

You don't have to cover the Shannon number (10^120) in a proof, but you do have to traverse 10^46 positions.  Maybe you should read the actual thread on it, which is 6 years old and 343 pages and covers everything WIkipedia does and a lot more.  

https://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/will-computers-ever-solve-chess?page=1

DiogenesDue
GMproposedsolutions wrote:

10^46 is excessive in my opinion 

Luckily, opinion is largely meaningless in this particular area.  But hey, thank goodness you came along and at least tried to let the world know that they were looking at this all wrong, and that you could solve the problem, alone, with a donated PC.

ponz111

GMproposedsolutions     Sometimes it is hard to tell if you actually believe what you post or are you trying to make some kind of weird joke?? tongue.png

Notice you did not respond to my questions!?tongue.png

MARattigan
ponz111 wrote:

It is also quite true and rather obvious that 6 or 7 piece EGTBs  have only a small relevance to 32 piece EGTBs?  

...

Not obvious at all. EGTB generation for a given set of men requires prior generation of all those that can result from a capture or pawn promotion. So all 6 and 7 men EGTBs would be a fundamental requirement for the starting pieces.

MARattigan
btickler wrote:
MARattigan wrote:

 

The Nalimov EGTBs in any case are overkill. You have completely solved (Basic Rules) chess if you can produce a routine that guarantees a win from any winning position. It doesn't have to be in the minimum number of moves and it doesn't need to produce more than one move for a given position.

A chess beginner with an aptitude for programming could probably produce a routine to replace the 14 KB KRK Nalimov EGTB in less than a couple of hundred bytes if you drop that overkill. I could also replace the 1 MB + KBNK EGTB in around 1 KB with the same proviso.

Such EGTB replacement routines are no doubt possible for all generic endgames (including all 32 pieces). Moreover I think the ratio of the size of such routines as a fraction of the corresponding EGTB size would probably exponentially decrease with EGTB size.

The problem is, of course, that the larger the EGTB size, the harder is the analysis for such replacement  routines, but this is not the same as saying that such routines do not exist.

If storage capacities continue to grow at their historical rate, I wouldn't be surprised if in a decade or two, a complete solution to chess would fit on the average person's mobile. I would be surprised if it actually did.   

You're posting a paradox .  There is no "solving" for "basic chess rules" that way.  If you want to evaluate "winning positions", then you have to prove what is actually, provably "winning" first.  Doing that requires traversing the 10^46.7 positions.  It's not enough to say "this result draws/wins every game ever played" when every game ever played by man or engines is still a tiny fraction of total games.

An extrapolated proof is only good if you can be certain your extrapolations are valid, and in this case, you can't prove your extrapolations are valid without looking at all the positions and backing it out.

If you want to solve chess, as in the definition of "solved games" ala checkers, there isn't a shortcut.  Even if you were certain you had the solution, how would you even prove it was correct?  You'd still have to traverse the 10^46.7 positions...

P.S. If a chess beginner could just write a 100 byte routine and solve the game, it would have been done by now, because there has been a good amount of interest.  Any engine developer ala Hans Berliner or whomever could have taken it on long ago.  Don't try to posit an easy solution that you just don't have the time or will to come up yourself.  You sound like Geodexic .

You are looking at a problem with 10^46.7 as the result set and then saying you can increase the calculating efficiency from 14K to less than 1K.  Great.  Only 45 orders of magnitude to go.  This argument has been put forth dozens of times in the "will computers ever solve chess?" thread, but reducing the problem set by even 99.999999% still does not make a realistic dent in the calculation and storage required.  It's still galaxy sized supercomputers trying to store a solution the universe isn't big enough to hold.

You're assuming that the only valid method of proof is brute force and ignorance. If you want to prove that the arithmetic mean of two positive real numbers is greater than the geometric mean, a really bad way of attempting it would be to try it out for every pair of positive real numbers.

I didn't say that a chess beginner could solve the game in 100 bytes. I said that he could write a routine to win from any winning king and rook versus king position in less than a couple of hundred bytes. I'll write you a javascript for it if you like.

For this I would have to consider maybe a half dozen generic positions, not the the circa 400,000 positions in the endgame.

You omitted to note that I would estimate less than 1K for the 1MB+ EGTB bishop and knight endgame. I could also write you a javascript for that. Again this would be based on about fifteen properties of the position rather than considering the 11 million individual positions. The compression ratio has jumped from 14 to 1000+ and I expect would continue to increase exponentially for an optimal routine as the number of positions in an endgame increases. 

This is not a proof that a conceivably practicable solution of chess on these lines exists,  just a conjecture, but @pfren has already pointed out, a solution by EGTBs appears to be completely impracticable simply from a storage point of view. If such a practicable solution does exist, the hard bit is finding it.

pfren

Even using the false assumption that each of these 10^46 positions can be stored at just one atom, it is still way too much to get the available storage for solving chess. The number of atoms in the Universe according to the latest evaluations do not excheed 10^82, and it is more than apparent that we cannot take a short ride to gazillions of these atoms.

Prometheus_Fuschs
btickler escribió:
Prometheus_Fuschs wrote:
 

No, you do not need to traverse all of the game tree to make a proof. It's the only way we know of to prove it but it doesn't mean it's the only possible way we could prove it. Wikipedia explicitly says so...

Define what you think you mean by"game tree" . 

You don't have to cover the Shannon number (10^120) in a proof, but you do have to traverse 10^46 positions.  Maybe you should read the actual thread on it, which is 6 years old and 343 pages and covers everything WIkipedia does and a lot more.  

https://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/will-computers-ever-solve-chess?page=1

Ok, show me the proof that you need to "traverse" all legal positions to solve chess...

Thee_Ghostess_Lola

is Leela a female engine ?...cuz its a girl name uknow.

Thee_Ghostess_Lola
pfren wrote:

Even using the false assumption that each of these 10^46 positions can be stored at just one atom, it is still way too much to get the available storage for solving chess. The number of atoms in the Universe according to the latest evaluations do not excheed 10^82, and it is more than apparent that we cannot take a short ride to gazillions of these atoms.

i have abt 7 quintillion-billion atoms in my brain. i have no idea how many u have left. tho no dbt ouzo has probably scorched plenty a many.

MARattigan

I don't think ouzo removes atoms from the brain. It just changes their arrangement.