Who will win the candidates and who will win the WC

Sort:
ricorat

Nepo's known to start tourneys off strong then crumble unfortunately. We'll see what happens, but right now he's on fire 🔥🔥

DreamscapeHorizons
Ian Nepomniachtchi 3/4 (+2 -0 =2) [games]
Fabiano Caruana 2.5/4 (+1 -0 =3) [games]
Jan-Krzysztof Duda 2/4 (+0 -0 =4) [games]
Richard Rapport 2/4 (+0 -0 =4) [games]
Hikaru Nakamura 2/4 (+1 -1 =2) [games]
Teimour Radjabov 1.5/4 (+0 -1 =3) [games]
Ding Liren 1.5/4 (+0 -1 =3) [games]
Alireza Firouzja 1.5/4 (+0 -1 =3) [games]

 

 
BunniesAndRockClimbing
Ian Nepomniachtchi 3   2W 2D 0L
Fabiano Caruana 2.5   1W 3D 0L
Hikaru Nakamura 2   1W 2D 1L
Jan-Krzysztof Duda 2   0W 4D 0L
Richard Rapport 2   0W 4D 0L
Teimour Radjabov 1.5   0W 3D 1L
Ding Liren 1.5   0W 3D 1L
Alireza Firouzja 1.5   0W 3D 1L
       
DreamscapeHorizons

Naka has white against Nepo tomorrow.  That could turn into a crazy game.

tygxc

Right now: Nepo and Nepo.
One more win and he can coast to victory with draws.
Carlsen has indicated he may not defend his World Championship title unless the challenger is Firouzja.

DreamscapeHorizons

Nepomniachtchi is playing the petroff against Nakamura. 

MaetsNori

Hikaru currently has a +1 advantage against Ian.

But it's a very subtle advantage that might slip away at any moment.

EDIT: They both keep finding the top engine moves. Very tense battle.

Second edit: But Hikaru is in time trouble.

BunniesAndRockClimbing

You'd think Hikaru would be the least likely to be in time trouble!

shih2020

I believe tomorrow Alireza will come back as a contender. I think Nepo is great till now but will not survive till the end. Rapport and Duda seem to play solid and will be difficult to beat.

DreamscapeHorizons

Firouzja has white against Caruana tomorrow.  That'll be tough to win. Probable draw.

Nepo is white against Duda, I think Nepo can win that. 

Radja is white against Rapport, I think Rapport can win.

Naka has white against Ding, I predict a draw.

DreamscapeHorizons

2nd rest day tomorrow.  These are the standing after 6 rounds. 

an Nepomniachtchi 4.5/6 (+3 -0 =3) [games]
Fabiano Caruana 4/6 (+2 -0 =4) [games]
Hikaru Nakamura 3/6 (+1 -1 =4) [games]
Richard Rapport 3/6 (+0 -0 =6) [games]
Ding Liren 2.5/6 (+0 -1 =5) [games]
Jan-Krzysztof Duda 2.5/6 (+0 -1 =5) [games]
Teimour Radjabov 2.5/6 (+0 -1 =5) [games]
Alireza Firouzja 2/6 (+0 -2 =4) [games

 

llama36
BunniesAndRockClimbing wrote:

You'd think Hikaru would be the least likely to be in time trouble!

Definitely that's what people would think, but surprisingly it's more usually the opposite i.e. if all you do is play speed chess then your long-game calculation becomes inefficient and so you'll be slower than your peers.

BunniesAndRockClimbing

True, good point

ricorat

Today's most important game imo is Rapport-Nepo. Rapport has white and if he's able to beat Nepo, he'll slow down the leader, and go up on the scoreboard 

llama36

Caruana spending ~30 minutes on move 6... surprising.

tygxc

#57
Caruana may have never played against the O'Kelly Variation before.

llama36

It's nearly impossible for a top GM to be unfamiliar with a position as early as move 5... but sure, obviously this wasn't in his prep.

tygxc

#59
No top grandmaster plays the O'Kelly variation.
Keres thought for 2 hours over move 5 against Szabo at Budapest 1950.

ricorat
tygxc wrote:

#57
Caruana may have never played against the O'Kelly Variation before.

According to the database it appears he's played against it once against Artemiev and Caruana lost that game. He surely wasn't expecting Teimour to play it though as it's very uncommon

tygxc

#61
Radjabov has never played the O'Kelly variation before.
Caruana has faced it 4 times and has played 3 c3 in all 4 games, so Radjabov has surely prepared for that.