Who will win the FIDE Candidates 2024?

I believe you. I am hoping for Nepo to become the greatest player who never become World Champion.

nah he shows time and time again he is a 2750 not 2850 world cahmpion yet as he has NEVER crossed 2800 in his life! in classical

Rooting for Hikaru, but nepo is surely the top contender, yet again.

Spamming nonsense 2 weeks after April 1st is not an "April Fools joke".

The technical term for that is "spamming nonsense".

Everyone but Abasov and Firouzja is technically within striking distance. Any of them is capable of going on a tear when in form and the only one showing a dip in form is Fabi. He's not in bad form but he's also done nothing with the chances he's had. It's kinda tough to say anyone's predictions were off when the tournament is half done

it's probably gonna be Nepo again, which is kinda boring. much rather see Ding-Fabi than a rematch from last year.

It's probably not gonna be Nepo again. No way that Nepo is more probable than all the other players combined. I'd say Nepo has 25% chance at best.

Has anyone ever won the candidates 3 times in a row?

Magnus didn’t like playing Nepo so much he just quit. Ding Fabi would be better

After a not too thorough google search it looks like nobody has won 3 times in a row but 5 players have won back to back. Smyslov, Spassky, Korchnoi, Karpov, & Nepomniatchi.

Interestingly they all have something in common.

@magipi

fair point, but 25% is too low based on the standings & the last 2 tournaments (in my humble opinion). only 6 players have a somewhat realistic chance. let's say 40% Nepo, 60% field.

Yeah, I'd vote Nepos chances being closer to 40% than 25%.

He has Abasov today & has white this time. They drew the other game with Nepo having black. Nepo will definitely be going for a win this time, he has white, it's the day after a rest day, Abasovs in last place, etc. Nepos gonna be throwing the kitchen sink at him. Maybe. Hahaha.

I'm increasing my estimate of Nepos chances of 1st place to 50% because I just looked at the schedule & he had 4 blacks in the 1st half, so he'll have 4 whites the 2nd half. His nearest competition (all half point behind): Gukesh, already 4 whites. Fabi, already 4 whites. Pragg, 3 whites.

Nepo, Fabi and Naka are favorites.

Caruana

No, he doesn't like the time control or the exhausting format. It's not fun for him any more. He seems more interested in shorter time controls - still classical, but shorter - and in Fischer Random.

Rd 8 live now, looks like Gukesh has a nice edge vs Vidit and Nepo vs Abasov kinda drawish.

It seems that if Gukesh wins and Nepo draws they'll both tie with 5 pts.

Honestly quite impressed by Gukesh's play, albeit risky at times, he's been doing great securing key positions. Definitely one to root for.

Naka has an edge vs Fabi too, if he converts he might come back to it sharp speared.

Though it doesn't look like a decisive one and seems hard to convert.

Naka won.