Who will win the FIDE Candidates 2024?

I wrote a program to estimate the chances of each outcome after round 14. I used game outcome probabilities calculated from https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html using the players current elo scores, which of course may not be very accurate.
Code : https://codefile.io/f/vFFbpHe7Z3

Result :

{'Hikaru': 0.306, 'Gukesh': 0.142, 'Ian': 0.149, 'Gukesh,Ian': 0.047, 'Fabiano,Gukesh,Ian': 0.014, 'Hikaru,Fabiano,Gukesh': 0.036, 'Fabiano': 0.037, 'Hikaru,Ian': 0.052, 'Hikaru,Gukesh,Ian': 0.075, 'Hikaru,Fabiano,Ian': 0.018, 'Hikaru,Fabiano,Gukesh,Ian': 0.031, 'Fabiano,Gukesh': 0.017, 'Hikaru,Fabiano': 0.035, 'Hikaru,Gukesh': 0.039, 'Fabiano,Ian': 0.004}

 If you assume each player is equally good, setting their ratings equal in the calculation, you get this :

If your wondering what are the chances of who will win after Round 12 here is a Website that tells the stats:

http://stachesstics.com/

Based on pairings, Hikaru and nepo have the best chances in my opinion, followed by Gukesh and Fabi.

You

Perhaps you misread the pairings? Nepo play against Hikaru and Caruana, while Hikaru plays against Nepo and Gukesh. Hard to imagine harder pairings than those.

I wish Hikaru or Gukesh will win

Gukesh :fist :platinum

#111 I was actually betting on the colour. Gukesh has a decent chance, but he might lose against Alireza again, I am not really sure about him.

Have you seen their first game? Gukesh was clearly winning there.

Yes but I have this feeling, you can say a personal opinion more than a fact/ logic based one. Logically speaking, Gukesh is the one who has the easier pairing and the best shot. But my brain isn't ready to see a 17year old in WCC 😂

I am rooting for Hikaru. He really could win although Fabiano and Nepo remain in the conversation.

These last 2 games are the most important games of Hikarus life. I say Hikaru rather that Ian, Gukesh, or Fabi because Ian & Fabi have already won the candidates & Gukesh is so young there are certainly more chances for him. But with Hikaru there might not be another shot any better than this, if at all.

So this game today between Ian & Hikaru, in 6 hours, is gonna be epic. It's for everything that Hikaru has ever pursued chess for. It's that important.

Hikaru and Nepo have just drawn. They now have 8 points each.

New odds if Fabiano wins and Gukesh wins.

Tan is gonna win in WOMENS!!

yeah

Gukesh D

I think Gukesh & Hikaru will draw, Fabi will do the impossible and defeat Nepo, creating a rapid tie breaker between Gukesh & Fabi.

nah i think Hikaru will win and Fabi will win then I think Hikaru will beat fabi in tiebreaks to earn world championship match against Ding then BEAT Ding cause he has good score against him and if Gukesh wins the tournement then he will LOSE to Ding Liren just like he Lost to DING LIREN in Tata Steel 2024!