2 Boxes Paradox
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Mar 13, 2026
0
#2
Hmmmmm, I think if I was actually put in this situation, I would one-box with box A, but online, in a hypothetical life, I would totally pick box 2 XD
Is it really a paradox? It doesn't contradict itself much; if he "almost always right", there's a specific probability tied to it. It's like gambling, and obviously The Boxer is going off appearance and demeanor, kinda like the "guess your age" things at fairs...
If I was in this situation I would two box to attempt to get $1000 + chance for million.
Obviously I would only get the thousand but without knowing how the predictor works I think most people would take guaranteed money
Obviously I would only get the thousand but without knowing how the predictor works I think most people would take guaranteed money
But I agree with newu it doesn’t really contradict itself so not really a paradox
newu-phone wrote:
Is it really a paradox? It doesn't contradict itself much; if he "almost always right", there's a specific probability tied to it. It's like gambling, and obviously The Boxer is going off appearance and demeanor, kinda like the "guess your age" things at fairs...
The computer aspect complicates everything, but it's not going off of physical appearance, otherwise it'd be less accurate. To simplify things, we'll say the computer can predict the future with astounding accuracy. Now, there is a non-zero chance it gets it wrong, but it has predicted correctly every single other time.
I also want to clarify, I did say the wrong thing. This is a problem, not a paradox.
I'd pick only box B, as there is such certainty it will guess correctly, and honestly, I don't think I'm unique enough to be the one in a million that it gets wrong. Very interesting arguments for each side, keep them coming!
Magic-Twix wrote:
... An exceptionally accurate "Predictor"...
...You can choose to take only Box B (one-boxing)...
... If it predicted you would one-box, it put $1,000,000 in Box B...
...The Predictor is almost never wrong...
... Doesn't this mean you almost certainly would get 1 million..? I don't see the issue...
Yes, that is the argument of the 'One-Boxers.' The counter-argument is that either way, you have more than you would have with one box. The thought process is:
Machine gets wrong
1 box $0
2 box $100,001,000
Machine gets right
1 box $100,000,000
2 box $1,000
This is what I said earlier: Each side feels that the answer is obvious.
BOTH
Mar 13, 2026
0
#12
#4, 7
There are several different kinds of paradox. This has 2 opposite yet valid solutions. It is kind of a paradox
There are several different kinds of paradox. This has 2 opposite yet valid solutions. It is kind of a paradox
Mar 13, 2026
0
#13
The question being asked goes like this: you get two options take $1000 (a) or take A & (b) which has the chance to be $1000000/nothing, before you can pick a person try’s to predict what you will pick, if they “predict” that you pick (a) then they put $1000 in (b), or they predict that you will pick both so they put nothing in (b), it is now your turn to pick…
Mar 13, 2026
0
#14
As long as the computer is better than 1001/2000 chance of being right (basically a coin toss) 1-boxing is mathematically better.
But, magic predicting doesn’t exist (if we knew it, we could disobey it) so I think the premise is a bit flawed. If this thing got to interview me or know my thoughts on other philosophy problems and used that to predict, I would take both
But, magic predicting doesn’t exist (if we knew it, we could disobey it) so I think the premise is a bit flawed. If this thing got to interview me or know my thoughts on other philosophy problems and used that to predict, I would take both
Mar 13, 2026
0
#15
This is very similar to rock paper scissors except you have two options and your trying not to have the same as the other person
Mar 13, 2026
0
#17
So in conclusion, on average you'll make zero dollars and zero cents per day if you do this once a day, every day.
I just heard about this and this is fascinating to me- be sure to leave your thoughts below!
(Gemini's Explanation of the Problem)-
An exceptionally accurate "Predictor" (or superintelligent AI) presents you with two boxes:
Box A (Transparent): Always contains $1,000.
Box B (Opaque): Contains either $1,000,000 or nothing.
You can choose to take only Box B (one-boxing) or both Box A and Box B (two-boxing).
The Predictor already made its move -before even asking you- based on what it predicted you would do:
If it predicted you would one-box, it put $1,000,000 in Box B.
If it predicted you would two-box, it left Box B empty.
The Predictor is almost never wrong. If it has played this game 1,000 times, its prediction has been correct every single time.
What do you do? Once some people respond, I'll share my thoughts. This is particularly fascinating because people are split almost 50/50 on this, and each side believes that their answer is the obvious one. Share your thoughts!