Covid-19 Discussion (moderated)

Kids🙄 

Good morning...I think we've about exhausted the Trump lead-up to our situation.  It is what it is at this point.  Let's avoid arguing about news outlets and their accuracy/inaccuracy in a general sense and if there's a problem with an outbreak-related story/article, point that out/refute it based on content.  

Meanwhile, my father was just taken to the hospital 15 minutes ago (not related to the outbreak).  Nobody in the house could go with him, due to shutdown, and I live 90 minutes away.  The newer shutdown restrictions will not allow for visitors, either, even after he is stable.  Here's hoping the VA hospital is not going to let him get infected and that they will call my mother to get pertinent info since he is not coherent.  It would suck big time if he dies there without him being able to see anyone.

That was your 5th one-liner without a word about the actual outbreak.  Sorry, but you're going to have to play in someone else's sandbox...

Honestly, my prayers and thoughts are with you.

What about you?  Have you got anything to say about the outbreak/virus?  How are restrictions where you live?

I always try and find the positives on things.  From what i see here in California, people are actually listening.  The streets are pretty much empty.  I do the grocery shopping for my mom since she is 79, and in a wheel chair.  The grocery store has been relatively empty, so i think people are adhering to the stay at home rule (for the most part).

In the UK the shutdown continues, but anecdotally I feel that more people are out and about than when it began (I am still working delivering groceries). There are many people walking, cycling, running plus more private cars on the road in my opinion. One form of exercise and essential travel are legitimate reasons to leave your house, but it seems like not all folks would fall into this category. I remember at the beginning the Chief Medical Officer stating that if strong measures were introduced too early people would begin to ignore them as they became 'fatigued'. Possibly what is happening. The weather is turning for the better so it will be interesting to see if people have the self control to stay indoors. The police have been told to be less zealous in their enforcement and recently a woman who was arrested at a train station and given a substantial fine for failing to co-operate when asked about the nature of her trip (ie. is it essential?) was cleared of all charges and given an apology. She was charged under new Covid 19 specific legislation which gave police these powers but was charged under the incorrect section of the act. 

Here locally on NextDoor somebody posted a video of 8-10 people playing volleyball at a park a few blocks away and asked people to stop doing this kind of stuff.  A big argument ensued as some people tried to say "leave them alone and mind your own business...they are keeping social distance" and others incredulously pointed out that you can't play volleyball with a shared ball and then try to claim "social distance" ...plus, people diving for the same ball, sweat flying around...it was just ludicrous.  One of the mothers (it was apparently some group of cousins) was posting from the parking lot of the park as she watched them playing, saying to back off and that they were just killing time while their cousins from *out-of- state* were waiting to be picked up for the drive home.  Surreal.

So, yeah, that's how the virus is spreading ...driving back to their home town where there might not be any cases yet, stopping at a gas station mini-mart every 90 minutes along the way, etc.

That's the bad.  The shelter in place does seem to be working fairly well, though.  Episodes like I listed above are outliers.  We're still doing food delivery to try and support the local economy.  Ironically, Clay Oven, which serves Indian food, has by far the best procedures in place we have seen.  The delivery person never even touches the bag, it arrives stapled shut in zipped outer container, which the delivery person unzips and holds open, then you pull it out yourself.  The food is all in plastic containers and then wrapped in saran wrap, so you cut away the saran wrap with scissors, wipe the scissors, and you're good to go.  No tips allowed, so no cash changing hands.  Round Table Pizza's procedures as a comparison point, not so much..."here's your pizza" passed over bare handed, no change in procedure at all.  Most fall somewhere in between.

But there are still people saying "I dunno if I would order from any ethnic restaurants right now...".  

Let's go "two and through" on the news source attacks.  From here forward, you get one freebie before blocks.  Haverum and Marie you've both have had your freebies already.

Okay:  "I don't agree with Fox News on this point, and here's what I have to say..."

Not okay:  "XYZ news source is a right/left wing P.O.S."

On this spectrum, stay closer to "okay" and far away from "not okay" ...I will block for veiled implications, etc. especially ones that are not specifically outbreak-related.

On a more general note...if you're about to post something and it's a one-liner that does not have any content beyond casting an aspersion at something/somebody, reconsider whether it is worth posting.  You can still argue with/against various opinions, but try to ensure you are making a new point/adding something.

We went through this "Ethnic Phobia" during the Iran hostage crisis.  Anyone, and anything that was even thought to be Iranian was hated, avoided, and just looked at like they were causing trouble.  I guess its to be expected.  Now today, if you go somewhere and cough, you get looked at like you're spreading death.  We get this in politics (btickler, i will apologize now for this, and will delete it if requested).  If you dont belong to "my party" you're wrong. 

I guess its just human nature.

I have always suffered from allergies.  Used to get 2 shots a week for years.  When i turned 18 i decided enough is enough.  March is my allergy cough month, so you can imagine the looks i get. 

You can always just click on the "Follow" checkbox in the bottom right corner. No need to post.

OK folks - I have and will be be deleting the posts that I deem are explicitly political with insufficient connection to the topic at hand.

The different positions about the orientation of news media was essentially complete ages ago and I am also deleting any posts about that as well.

If this thread reaches the point where I deem the effort to moderate outweighs the benefit of keeping it open, I will lock it.

Thanks,

David, moderator

Seriously?...how heavy handed is that?

The OP has been quite clear that he intends to keep the Thread on track and I for one, have been following a useful and informative Thread.

There are plenty of Threads elsewhere on here that would better serve your desire to lock.

All it takes to keep this from getting locked is some common sense, and self-control.  Easier said than done i guess.

The MedCram youtube channel has some interesting videos about Covid-19.  They get a bit med-geeky at times but the doctor there does a nice job of explaining things.

Maybe I'm misinterpreting the data but something odd I've noticed is that there seems to be a disparity between the IHME model and the Worldometer numbers.

 New York, for example.  The model shows something like 60,000 hospital beds needed for Covid-19 now.  Worldometer shows there are 102,000 cases in NY currently.  I read somewhere that the hospitalization rate for Covid is 22% in NY.  Even taking into consideration the part of the IHME graph indicating uncertainty, 22% falls far short of what the model is projecting.  

I'm probably missing something obvious.  

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Haven't watched it yet, but I will for sure.

I will check em out as soon as i get home to my state mandated quarantine.

I'm not really following the IHME projections, but it looks like they are only updating every 3-4 days, so corrections midstream will probably be frequent.

If you've ever played Plague Inc. games on Steam, they simulate virus outbreak with various parameters you can control, and honestly, these epidemic projection models work on the same basic concept (in fact it's quite likely the games came from someone's epidemic modeling software).  Overall, you can predict an outbreak based on the R-naught value and various other environmental factors with some amazing success, but the models are far more accurate at the macro scale than the micro scale, because they rely heavily on statistical modeling.

I would say if a predictive model is staying withing the right order of magnitude in various areas, it's doing pretty well.