IS IT SAFE TO GO TO TOURNAMENTS YET...3?

Well i didn't had a cold in the last 25+ years....there is no way i will get covid 19...

It's not rocket science if you are very careful and if you eat properly and exercise a bit and avoid to be in contact with a lot of peoples....

I guess I don't understand how effective the vaccine is. I thought it was about 90% effective. I totally agree that staying healthy is the single most important thing for avoiding covid (or any other ailment). 

But to say there is no way you will get covid seems a little too confident. In our state the OHA just released new statistics on cases between August 1 and August 14. 2,982 of those cases, or 14.4% are what they call breakthrough cases. It's people who have been fully vaccinated but still get covid. 

Of those fully vaccinated people who got covid, 5.8% were hospitized and .8% died. It's obviously rare for someone who is fully vaccinated to become very sick or die, but it does happen. Which why I asked the question about odds of everyone getting it eventually. 

If the vaccine is 85 to 90% effective, how long would it take for someone vaccinated to eventually get covid. I was thinking it might be similar to rolling a dice, where it's also about 85% chance of not rolling any one number. But if you roll enough times, eventually you WILL roll that one number that only has a 15% chance. Maybe that's not a good analogy, that's why I was asking if a math person could weigh in. 

Not rocket science.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-calculus-of-herd-immunity-11622748230

When enough people (say 80%+) of people have anti-bodies, the virus stops spreading and dies out due to lack of sufficient carriers to keep the spread sustained.  It doesn't matter if you are only 80% immune if the virus is just gone.   Vaccine efficacy is all about creating immunity in broad groups, not individuals.

That's the basic premise of vaccines, and it has been explained that way in elementary school science classes since before anyone on this thread was born.  People that don't get that are responsible for the variants and the continued circulating of Covid-19.

  Wow!...  you dusted off the cobwebs and giving life to my thread...  Thank you.....keep up the good work.  I'm shutting down my computer next week to re-locate. I'll turn it back on as soon as I can...... that is if I survive the hurricane that's heading towards Massachusetts Sunday......

What a nasty and arrogant comment.

The latest models at least show hurricane Henri weakening before landfall...

Marie

Thank you for posting those. Both were constructive and informative. I think most people here already know most of the information in them, but parts of them may be new. They only skirted around the question I had though. I agree the covid will be around forever, and will not be eradicated like smallpox. Whether it ends up as an annoying annual disease, who knows. It doesn't seem like there is any possibility that vaccines will keep up with variants and mutations. Even if every person on earth were vaccinated, it would still mutate or adapt to the vaccine, and keep spreading. Probably not as fast, but it seems possible if every person were vaccinated the mutations could be much worse. 

In our state, and possibly nationwide or even globally, variants and mutations account for more and more cases. The number of people who have been vaccinated, but still get covid keeps going up. Vaccine effectiveness started out in the 90 percent plus range. But here it's in the mid 80s, and dropping. 

Which is what prompted my question. How long will it be before everyone, vaccinated or not, gets covid. I realize some people will never get it. They may be 80 years old, get a vaccine every year, and die of old age before they ever get covid. I was more wondering about younger people. People who are maybe in their 20s, get the vaccine, have a 85% chance of not getting covid. It seems like if it's 85% every single year (assuming it doesn't fall further) eventually the odds will catch up to them. Anyway, good videos. 

lfPatriotGames I'm not near 80 and I'm happy that you enjoyed them.

they say apple just told e/o to stay home til january.

Absolutely true for any population/country that teaches basic medical science in schools.
What's "nasty" is being willfully ignorant and putting everyone around you at risk.

I will repeat...the minority of people who refuse to vaccinate are responsible for perpetuating the spread of the virus, and driving mutations into new variants.  

This comment was from July 2020. Even though it was obvious the number of cases was much higher than reported, it may have been (and still is) higher than we expected. Today, August 26,2021 a Columbia University study says that as of December 2020 about 31%, or 103 million Americans have had covid. By today I'm sure the number is over half. 

It's only a matter of time before pretty much everyone has had covid, vaccinated or not. I still haven't figured out when that will be, but my guess is it will be in about 3 years. I think it will be very rare exceptions at that point that someone has eluded it for that long. The real question is what will the mutations and variants look like by then. I'm sure by then the mutations will have adapted and overcome many of the vaccines. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/26/covid-oregon-health-system-brink

Absolutely. Many are absolutely furious at the governor because of what she did leading up to this. All the "I told you so" types are coming out of the woodwork. Oregon already has the lowest, or near lowest number of hospital beds per capita of any state in the country. On top of that, the governor refused more. She wanted to keep the number low. The lockdowns and other measures prevented people from acquiring natural immunity, so obviously when (not if) the cases rise there is now this feigned surprise at a large number of cases. Again, the I told you so people are having a field day. 

And if that were not enough, there is now a mandate for hospital staff to become vaccinated. That is obviously going to create a lot of nurses and doctors quitting or getting fired because there is a significant number of hospital staff that will refuse vaccinations under any circumstance. So intentionally creating fewer hospital spaces, intentionally creating hospital staff loss, what could possibly go wrong?

Mix with three parts idiocy, stir for several months, and watch disaster unfold. 

Lucian Truscott from Salon magazine wrote an interesting piece about having the covid. He was vaccinated, rarely went out, always wore a mask (and gloves) limited contact with people (all after being vaccinated) and still got it. He speculates on how he got it, but can't rule out vaccinated people transmitting it to vaccinated people. I think it's going to take someone like him, who has had a breakthrough case to explain why everyone is going to get covid, multiple times, vaccinated or not. 

I will never get it! and one guy bad luck is not going to impact most and i didn't got a cold in the last +25 years. 

Most peoples get a vaccine for the flue and never get it but with covid 19 on top we have the mask and the social distancing and the passport for anyone who go inside any public or private building(gym and store etc etc). Not one protection but 6 levels with the horde immunity and washing your hands very often when you touch something that can be contaminated.

The vaccine is just one tool.

Almost 80% of fully vaccinated here. and 85% before the end of the year.

Your guy cannot be safe even with two vaccine if only 45% are fully vaccinated and if he is not doing everything he could to be safe or if he is working around strangers that are contaminated.

I certainly hope you don't get it, but it seems inevitable at this point. Most doctors and experts agree that it's impossible to eradicate a disease like covid simply because it mutates so much, so fast. From what I understand the covid vaccine doesn't prevent you from getting covid, it prevents you from having severe reactions to it. Which is why so many people who have been vaccinated are spreading it. Even if every person on earth were vaccinated, it would still mutate and spread. There are even those who are now saying the mutations are coming mainly from the vaccinated because that's the where the most resistance is. Like when a doctor tells you to take your antibiotic for 7 straight days and emphasizes not missing a single dose. Otherwise that's how the new strains are formed, by adapting against the antibiotic if it's misused. 

Add to that now they are saying that the unvaccinated who have had covid are between 6 and 13 times more protected against future covid than those who have been vaccinated. Which if that's true, raises all sorts of questions about mandating anything. Because if vaccinated people are spreading covid, and unvaccinated people who previously had covid really are that much more protected, it would then make sense why so many people want natural immunity. 

The reason public health officials are calling for more mask-wearing is that there is clear and mounting evidence that – though rare – breakthrough COVID-19 infections can occur in people who are fully vaccinated. This is particularly true with emerging variants of concern.

Your vaccination status only changes your risk of catching COVID-19 and becoming ill. It doesn't change your risk of exposure to the virus out in the community.

According to the CDC, 99.9 percent of Americans who have been vaccinated do not get seriously sick if they contract COVID; breakthrough cases make up less than 1% of all COVID cases.16 août 2021.

The vaccine made by Pfizer in New York City and BioNTech in Mainz, Germany, was 92% effective at keeping people from developing a high viral load.

A “breakthrough” simply means that a vaccinated person has tested positive for the disease-causing agent, not that they will become ill or transmit the infection to someone else. Most vaccinated people who are infected do not have symptoms, and those that do tend to have mild illness.4 août 2021.

Should people who had Covid get the vaccine?
 
Yes. Medical experts recommend that people who have had COVID-19 should still get the vaccine.