IS IT SAFE TO GO TO TOURNAMENTS YET...3?

Immunity varies significantly from person to person, so while many people mount a strong, durable immune response that protects them against delta after a previous infection, some may generate a weak immune response and remain at risk.

Due to the unknowns, some experts are advising people who have had COVID-19 to get at least one vaccine dose to boost their antibody levels.

Others, however, are recommending people who’ve had COVID-19 to get fully vaccinated, either with two doses of a messenger RNA (mRNA) shot or the one dose of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine.

Yes, I agree with all that. But the recent numbers dont lie. (well, maybe they do, we'll see). There is a high probability that people who have been vaccinated will not become seriously ill or die. But there is ALSO a very high probability that those who are not vaccinated will also not be seriously ill or die. It's just that the vaccine helps, the odds are even better. Here though the number of vaccinated people getting covid is rising sharply. Recently in LA about 25% of those admitted to hospitals were vaccinated. Here it's similar. Here it's about 15%, but rising. So breakthrough infections aren't rare at all. They are becoming more and more common. 

But if it's true that unvaccinated people who have had covid really are 6 to 13 times more protected against future covid that certainly puts the vaccinated only at a disadvantage. It is recommended that people who have had covid still get a vaccine, I agree. But how do we know the long term results at this point? What will the immune response be between to relatively similar people where one gets a vaccine every year, and the other has had covid 2 or 3 times? If natural immunity really is better (probably still too early to know for sure) wouldn't those who are naturally immune be better off long term?

I really don't know enough about the details of how the virus or vaccines work but there seems to be growing evidence that the vaccines are very effective, but losing effectiveness. And natural immunity is more dangerous, but increases effectiveness. I've heard it has to do with how each work. The vaccine apparently only tackles a small portion of the virus where natural immunity the body reacts to more parts of the virus, or can identify more of the virus. Anyway, regardless it seems like the covid is here to stay and it really does seem like everyone will get it eventually. 

I was wrong about Oregon being near the bottom of the list for hospital beds per capita. It's actually THE lowest, at 1.7 per thousand people. Both the current and former governor wanted even less. It was due to changes that came about under the ACA, which could, in theory, keep costs lower for having fewer hospital beds. Unintended consequences I guess. 

On top of that the Oregon Nurses Association said that 100 nurses are now on unpaid leave because of a August 31 deadline that came and went for mandatory vaccinations. We are already understaffed and the mandate is clearly causing even more shortages. Not to mention ANOTHER mandate coming October 18. The ONA warned this will lead to even further staff shortages. It stands to reason horrible decisions at the top will lead to horrible consequences on down the line. Unpleasant reality, but not at all unexpected. 

Someone unvaccinated is 16 times less likely to get infected, so claims of 25% of infections being breakthrough cases are highly dubious.

Here are some of the latest CDC numbers:

https://www.chess.com/forum/view/off-topic/covid-19-discussion?page=156#comment-63071137

I was wrong about the number of breakthrough cases I mentioned earlier in LA. Officials in LA had said about 25% of cases were breakthrough cases. While that might have been true at the time they have revised their numbers. In March officials in that city said breakthrough cases were at about 2%, which is fairly rare. But that number went up as the months went by. It went up as high as 25%. But now government officials say it's 30%. So not rare at all. Of course there is the possibility they are intentionally lying about their case numbers, but I'm not sure what their incentive would be to do that. 

It's not at all surprising that breakthrough cases are increasing so much. Here it's still only about 15%, but that's still not rare. As the virus mutates against the vaccines (and immunity wears off) it should be expected breakthrough cases will increase. I would expect in another 8 or 10 mutations and variants one or more variants will make vaccines much less effective or possibly not effective at all. Sorta like the common cold. 

Is that what you meant to post?

I will qualify with "in areas with 70%ish vaccination rates" if you like, but it seems obvious enough.

Obviously if you have a group of people that are 100% vaccinated, then *all* your cases will be breakthrough cases by force.  

   I hate to come full circle with this thread but, the 1st 2 interations were closed by Staff in the very early days of Covid for not staying on topic. When the vaccines came out, it was looking good that we had this virus licked. Now with all the dam variants, I may have to re-name the thread....."Is it safe to go to work yet,?......school yet,? vacation yet,? Even thou Massachusetts has a high vaccination rate, the governor is thinking about mandating masks a little longer because the virus just doesn't want to go away.

It will never go away. That fact I would bet my life on. Every single person, vaccinated or not, is going to get it. Hopefully most everyone has little or no symptoms and vaccines seem to help with that. But at least we can be thankful it's only a coronavirus and not ebola or something. Watching the covid mutate is like watching Hikaru Nakamura play a blitz game. It's like wait, what just happened there?

Anyway, good to see you again. 

How long have coronaviruses existed?
 
The most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of all coronaviruses is estimated to have existed as recently as 8000 BCE, although some models place the common ancestor as far back as 55 million years or more, implying long term coevolution with bat and avian species.

 Ultimately, in most cases, antibodies developed by the immune system to fight off the invader linger in enough of the affected population to confer longer-term immunity and limit person-to-person viral transmission. But that can take several years, and before it happens, havoc reigns.

The H1N1 strain became endemic, an infectious disease that was constantly with us at less severe levels, circulating for another 40 years as a seasonal virus. It took another pandemic—H2N2 in 1957—to extinguish most of the 1918 strain. One flu virus kicked out another one, essentially, and scientists don’t really know how.

Containment. The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2003 was caused not by an influenza virus but by a coronavirus, SARS-CoV, that is closely related to the cause of the current affliction, SARS-CoV-2. Of the seven known human coronaviruses, four circulate widely, causing up to a third of common colds. The one that caused the SARS outbreak was far more virulent. Thanks to aggressive epidemiological tactics such as isolating the sick, quarantining their contacts and implementing social controls, bad outbreaks were limited to a few locations such as Hong Kong and Toronto.

Containment worked so well there were only 8,098 SARS cases globally and 774 deaths. The world has not seen a case since 2004.

Vaccine power. When a new H1N1 influenza virus, known as swine flu, caused a pandemic in 2009, “there was an alarm bell because this was a brand-new H1N1,” It was very similar to the 1918 killer.

The 2009 vaccine helped to temper a second wave of cases in the winter. As a result, the virus much more rapidly went the way of the 1918 virus, becoming a widely circulating seasonal flu, from which many people are now protected either by flu shots or by antibodies from a previous infection.

Projections about how COVID-19 will play out are speculative, but the end game will most likely involve a mix of everything that checked past pandemics: Continued social-control measures to buy time, new antiviral medications to ease symptoms, and a vaccine.

The exact formula—how long control measures such as social distancing must stay in place, for instance—depends in large part on how strictly people obey restrictions and how effectively governments respond. For example, containment measures that worked for COVID-19 in places such as Hong Kong and South Korea came far too late in Europe and the U.S.

The question of how the pandemic plays out is at least 50 percent social and political.

It will take a vaccine to stop transmission. Compared with flu viruses, coronaviruses don’t have as many ways to interact with host cells. If that interaction goes away, [the virus] can’t replicate anymore.

The combination of vaccination and natural immunity will protect many of us. The coronavirus, like most viruses, will live on—but not as a planetary plague. 

I agree with almost everything you said, except transmission. From what I understand vaccines can help slow down spread, but they are not designed to stop transmission. People who are fully vaccinated can, and do, get the covid and spread it to others. The vaccine is designed to minimize the risk of getting sick or dying, not to stop transmission. I don't think it does anything to prevent someone from getting covid, it just helps prevent severe reactions to it. 

It seems to me at the rate mutations are arriving and the rate vaccines are becoming less effective it's only a matter of time before a strain crops up where vaccines wont help much. Your last sentence is probably the reality we are in. 

   Good to see you also P.G....hope you're well. No major disaster with my recent move.

Where i live 80% are fully vaccinated and when/if 95% are it's will almost stop it.

The problem are the variants;the delta is really worst...and the protection against it is a lot lower....

The vaccine is great because the it lower a lot the virus load! so that is why you are generally a lot less symptomatic.

   I heard there's a new variant coming out of South Africa Marie....https://theconversation.com/theres-no-need-to-panic-about-the-new-c-1-2-variant-found-in-south-africa-according-to-a-virologist-167105                                   

Emerging data suggest lower effectiveness against confirmed infection and symptomatic disease caused by the Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants compared with the ancestral strain and the Alpha variant.

 Ongoing monitoring of vaccine effectiveness against variants is needed.

A growing body of evidence indicates that people fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) are less likely than unvaccinated persons to acquire SARS-CoV-2 or to transmit it to others. However, the risk for SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection in fully vaccinated people cannot be completely eliminated as long as there is continued community transmission of the virus.

Public health recommendations for people fully vaccinated with authorized COVID-19 vaccines must consider evidence of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19, as well as vaccine impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

So if 90% of the peoples are fully vaccinated  we have a very low risk of acquiring or transmitting SARS-CoV-2.

I think 90% is realistic in a few months but additional prevention measures are a must like the passport here and a mask inside where there is a lot of peoples and we still have the social distancing.

Quebecers will now have to show proof of vaccination against COVID-19 in order to gain access to certain non-essential services, including bars, restaurants and some sports.

Starting Wednesday, merchants will be required to ask anyone coming into their establishment to not only show proof of vaccination, but also a matching piece of photo ID.

Certain groups will be exempted from the rule, including those who participated in the Medicago vaccine trial and those "with contraindications to vaccination against COVID-19."

Anyone who cannot be vaccinated against the virus will have to get a note from their doctor and bring it to a vaccination centre to then be able to register for their passport.

For now, there is no plan to deploy vaccine passport inspectors, but anyone who does not comply with the health measure will be fined.