do u think I can become World Champion

Two months later this nonsense is still creeping along.

I just saw the 2018 World Championship game 1, and Jen and Yasser said that, 'a woman will become a contender at some point'. I quit at that point. To flood the World Championship, between top males, with feminist nonsense is obscene, and very dull at this point. A few comments were made of the nature, but Jen is known for her aggressive female approach to such things. There is no evidence that a woman will ever fight for the title, and this has never happened in history, and no woman has ever had the rating required to do so. Polgar was the closest, and she was nowhere near the top. She was maybe rank #50 in her prime some time ago. To actually be serious about becoming World Champion, you need to be rank #5 or so, and early in life. You also likely don't even want to consider it unless you're rank #1 or #2.

Put it this way: almost every single World Champion was a genius in childhood, and a very strong player by age 15, often around GM level, if not already a GM. That means, about 2500 Elo and a true strength of at least 2550. Since children grow quick, and they lack the knowledge base for a stable reading, their ratings are misleading. They are often stronger than they appear, but not all of them grow into #1 players in adulthood, however. In fact, most of them are top 10 at best. As a result, you don't 'work to the top' or ask about it -- you just find yourself there, and early. Therefore, it very likely doesn't apply to anybody over the age of 15 today.

Maybe people don't fully understand the difference between 2500 and 2800, and also 2000 and 2500, etc. Every major jump is almost impossible, and is rarely achieved merely with hard work.

The simplest way to get insight into this is to note that the World Champions and could-be World Champions are in the %tile. This means, if you have 100 people in a room, you're pretty much the only 1 in this category.

Compare this to 2000 -- a professional, or absolute top club player. Around expert level. This is around 95th %tile. This means, if you put 100 people in a room, you're in the top 5. 4 others are there with you, however.

Note that when you're 300 points behind somebody, it's very rare to gain a win. To be twice as good as somebody is a 200-point gap. To win every single game is about 800-point gap (a few draws at best).

Look at the number of people with 1500+, 2000+, 2500+, and 2800+ ratings for clarity. Difficult to judge, since there are many ways to count: online Chess, FIDE, total, etc. But see below for an idea.

1500+ = 400,000+ players (more across all platforms, etc.)
2500+ = 1,000+ active players (often even fewer) (over 2,000 Grandmasters in total; most inactive and/or below 2500 rating currently)
2800+ = 10+ players (any given cycle); it's actually only 2 right now

Most Chess players are rated between 400 and 1400, and never climb any higher for whatever reason. There are maybe 400 million Chess players in the world, making it the most popular game. It's profoundly difficult.

22 World Champions have existed, and only about 40 could have ever been World Champion, making it one of the hardest and rarest things in sport and game history. Only 18 of those were Classical Champions, as well.

You need 2800 rating to be World Champion, and this has largely been the case since 1972. Fischer was clearly around 2800 in performance, and had live rating of 2785. Since then, every World Champion has had 2800 or beyond, other than Karpov, post-Fischer, I believe.

There has been only about 19 players to reach 2800 rating in history. However, some of them were close and could have certainly won the title; others were the best in the world but pre-FIDE and/or pre-Elo. Morphy was 2600 strength at best, far beyond everybody else. Tal was 2700 strength, but was very difficult to deal with.

Today, you require a computer-like universal style, like Fischer 3.0. And you likely want to study many hours a day since childhood. You also need to use coaches and engines to a very high standard. You need the will and personality for it. And you need to carefully study your opponents for months and prep many deep openings, or have a brain like Carlsen's.

Since Carlsen is no longer World Champion, it's easier than ever to become World Champion, but this fact still only applies to a handful of top GMs today. Who knows what the future holds, of course. But we can be certain that nobody on Chess dot com is ever going to become World Champion unless he's currently (a) a child; and (b) very high rated.

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