you should also keep in mind that this tournament is very very important for him ...... If he wins the tournament, he will finish 2nd in Grand Prix and qualifies for the next candidates ...........
No, he is mathematically eliminated from qualifying by finishing 1st or 2nd in the Grand Prix. He may still qualify by rating, though, although his recent gyrations might put that in jeopardy. Kramnik winning the World Cup means the "high rating" entrants will be one notch lower.
The rating spots were decided based on old rating lists, so Aronian and Kramnik got those long ago, or maybe that should be Aronian and Karjakin after Kramnik won the World Cup. Caruana is not mathematically eliminated from second place in the Grand Prix series though. He just needs to be sole first here, and if he beats Gelfand with white today he will probably be shared first with three rounds to go.
thanks