Ding vs Nepo: Everything You Need to Know
Introduction
The next World Championship match is happening this year from April 7th to May 1st. The contenders are Ian Nepomniatchi (2nd in the world, 2795 rating) and Ding Liren (3rd in the world, 2788 rating). The match will take place in Astana, Kazakhstan, and will consist of fourteen games. If you're out of the loop, here's all the information you need to know about the upcoming World Championship.
Format
As I said earlier, there will be fourteen classical games played to decide the winner. The time control is two hours for the first forty moves, then one hour for the next twenty moves, and then fifteen minutes plus thirty seconds increment for the rest of the game. If the match ends in a draw, rapid and blitz games will be played to decide the winner.
📸 Ding and Nepo duking it out in the Candidates (Lennart Ootes/FIDE)
You can catch the match on Chess.com and Twitch. The commentators are Viswanathan Anand, Daniil Dubov, and Irina Krush, as FIDE announced in this article. Post-game recaps/analyses will be posted on YouTube by content creators such as GothamChess and Agadmator.
Opinions
Of course, the chess world is buzzing about the match, and coincidentally chess is more popular than it has ever been before. Here is what people think about the match:
Kasparov: It's Not A World Championship Match
Former World Champion Garry Kasparov doesn't think this match is World Championship worthy because it doesn't involve the current World #1, Magnus Carlsen.
I can hardly call this a World Championship match. To me, the World Championship should include the strongest player on the planet and this match doesn't. [...] It's a pity Magnus is not here. Naturally, the match between Nepo and Ding is a great show anyway, but it is not a World Championship match.
— Garry Kasparov
If you want to see the full interview, you can check out this YouTube video. Kasparov always has good takes, and that has stayed true here. However, let's keep going.
Magnus: Ding is Better at Chess
Magnus appeared on the Lex Fridman podcast, and when asked for his opinion on the 2023 World Chess Championship, he mentioned that he thought Ding was a stronger chess player overall. Here's the exact quote:
Generally, I would consider that Ding has a slightly better overall strength. [...] Ding has an excellent understanding of dynamics and imbalances in chess. [...] To be fair, I only think Ding has a slight edge, the difference is not big at all.
— Magnus Carlsen
Here's the podcast highlight, in which Magnus talks more about the strengths and weaknesses of each player. You could also consider listening to the rest of the podcast, where Magnus talks about all sorts of things such as Chess960, drunk chess, and poker.
📸 Rating comparison of Ding and Nepo over the years. As you can see, Nepo was better until Ding overtook him in 2013.
Chess Community: Nepo 55-45 Ding
Chess.com recently ran a poll in which over 3000 chess players weighed in. The result? Most people are leaning towards Nepo, however, it is still close at 55%. This shows there is an upside to having a World Championship match without Magnus. When Magnus was playing, he was the favorite in every match. This time, however, it's very hard to predict the winner as both players are very evenly matched.
Most sports betting websites also lean towards Nepo as the slight favorite. You should make sure to put your life savings into Ding Liren winning the WC, and your investment will definitely double! (just kidding, don't get addicted to gambling)
📸 Yes, I made this awful-looking infographic, but it works.
Who Will Win?
Personally, I think that Ding will win and become World Champion. Here are a few of the reasons why:
#1 - Nepo Losing Finals
First, Nepo lost to Carlsen in the 2021 World Championship. Then, he lost the World Rapid Championship finals to Nodirbek Abusattadrov. Then, he lost the Fischer Random World Championship to Hikaru Nakamura. All this shows me that Nepo can't handle the stress of an important final match, which in turn tells me he's not up for something as psychologically draining as a World Championship.
#2 - Ding's Consistency
Ding is generally a solid and consistent player. Despite a shaky start to the Candidates tournament, he found his footing and bounced back to take second place. Meanwhile, Nepo has good days and bad days, and his results really vary from amazing to awful.
📸 Ding is known to be a generally consistent player.
#3 - The Scenes!
This is not a reason based on fact, but I think Ding winning the World Championship would be poetic. Football fans know the story of Euro 1992, when Denmark only qualified for the competition after Yugoslavia was disqualified. Denmark ended up winning the whole tournament in one of the greatest sports underdog stories of all time.
Similarly, Ding only made it to the Candidates because Karjakin was disqualified. When he got there, he ended up losing his first game against Nepo. He got 3.5/8 in the first eight rounds, but then unleashed some last-minute heroics to finish ahead of Hikaru and Caruana.
In the final key game, he played an amazing game, somehow squeezing a win out of a dead drawn position against Hikaru. Despite what some people say, Ding definitely deserves his spot in the World Championship match.
The Larger Debate
It seems only fair to include the opinions of other players as well to balance it out. Here's what some members of the chess community think:
Team Nepo
@fabelhaft: "I will root for Nepo. He won the Candidates (twice) while Ding neither won them nor qualified for them this time. First Karjakin had to get himself banned, then it was quickly arranged so Ding played 25+ games in a month to be able to be his replacement, then Nakamura blundered in a drawish endgame in the final round, and then Carlsen declined to play. Feels like Nepo deserves it a bit more this time after his crushing win in the Candidates." (Writer's Note: Debatable. I'd think Ding deserves it more. The only reason he didn't qualify for the Candidates is that FIDE switched up its laws. Nepo has already had his shot at the WC and missed.)
Note that Nepo did beat Ding in the Candidates tournament. Here's the game below:
@DreamscapeHorizons: "My opinion about Nepo is that he's #2 in the world no matter what the ratings say. If a player can win the top tournament in the world back-to-back, he's proven he's better than everyone but The Magster. Ding still has a lot to prove other than rating. He needs to win a lot of big tournaments. I think winning the Candidates is equivalent to winning 4 or 5 other big events." (Writer's Note: No counterargument, this is a really good point)
📸 The above picture bolsters Team Nepo's argument as Nepo has done better Head to Head. Note that the ratings are outdated.
Team Ding
@Fayez58: "If Ding wins, it would be much better for chess than if Nepo wins. If Ding wins, it would lead to a massive chess boom. China has a population of 1.402 billion. Now, if we have a Chinese champion, obviously that would attract a lot of attention in China. Look what a great impact Vishy had on India. Maybe Ding will have the same effect. That would be just awesome!" (Writer's Note: Good point, I have to agree)
@IronSteam1: "I'd say, on paper, Nepo is a slight favorite to win. He has World Championship match experience (as others have pointed out), which counts for a lot. Plus, he has a slightly better head-to-head score against Ding, over the board. However, Ding is a 2800 player after all. And he holds the record for the second-longest winning streak at the elite level - 100 games, undefeated.
I can't tell which way the match will go, I think either player is capable of winning it. Nepo does have a tendency to collapse (as we saw in his World Championship match against Carlsen). Ding did the opposite in the Candidates - he started off shaky, but ended strong. For that reason, I'm thinking that Ding will pull off the win. I could be wrong, but he seems to have more of an ability to mentally "reset" after playing poorly, which might be the key difference between the players, in the upcoming match." (Writer's Note: Makes sense. I'm even more torn up after reading other people's thoughts!)
Conclusion
Despite many people thinking that this year's WCC will be uninteresting, the winner will still be crowned World Chess Champion and go down in chess history, so the stakes are definitely high. Even though I think Ding is better, this could definitely go either way! I, for one, will look forward to seeing these two players duke it out on the chessboard.
So, until the London System is outlawed from chess, thanks for reading the Daily Rat!
