JSCC Weekend Prediction Recap

The Junior Speed Chess Championship (JSCC) is one of my favorite events of the year. We get to watch 16 of the top juniors compete in the same exciting knockout format as the Speed Chess Championship. I have been running stats on speed chess championships for a few years, and for this year's JSCC I am in charge of making the match predictions. I'm very proud to announce that ChessGoals is a sponsor of the stats sections this year. Currently, we are running a promotion for 25% off with coupon code JSCC in the shop.

Let's recap how the matches have turned out this weekend.

Sarin - Tang

Andrew Tang is an incredible player and I have played him over-the-board many times in Minnesota. I base my predictions on input data and try not to let my own biases alter them. I was definitely rooting for Andrew, but my algorithms said he would be the underdog in all three segments. 

The combination of Nihal's impressive bullet and blitz ratings made him at a 7 point favorite with a 75% chance to win.

One trait both players exhibited in the match was to play out long games and use their time to the fullest. This resulted in a very short match length of 24 games. Sarin did end up winning by 8 points, which was only one point off the SmarterChess prediction.

Erigaisi - Gukesh

When I began to research these players I didn't have much experience watching them play online.

The combination of chess.com ratings and FIDE ratings gave Erigaisi a projected 12 point margin of victory with an 87% chance to win the match.

Again with a few less games than projected we saw a very similar result in terms of margin of victory. Erigaisi won by 10 points, and with 3 more games he may have extended the lead even further. So far so good through two matches.

Sevian - Tabatabaei

Sam Sevian is a beast. He competed in last year's JSCC and notched a victory. He's consistently a top player in chess.com events, and has impressive chess.com and FIDE ratings.

Amin is a very strong player in his own right, and an unknown in this format. I think the prediction in hindsight should have bumped Amin up closer than a 10 game spread. GM Robert Hess warned me!

Amin was able to keep the match close through the two blitz portions, only being down 2 points. The 3+1 portion was where the predictions failed. I projected Sam would be +4 in that segment, and the final spread was off by those same 4 points. Overall though the prediction was correct and it was a comfortable margin in the end.

Summary

The matches have overall been closer than projected. Stay tuned for more fun this week, and please check out the ChessGoals shop and the current 25% off sale.

How have your predictions fared so far?