Candidates Predictions Update Rd 2
I'm going to try to keep a log of how well my predictions do from December. Round 2 I predicted half of the games once again, but the overall standings are becoming closer to my standings prediction. I was way off in Hikaru through 2 rounds, predicting 1.5/2 instead of 0.5/2. Overall though I did predict Hikaru to score 50%, below most people's expectations.
| Round 2 | |||
| White | Black | Result | Prediction |
| Svidler | Topalov | Draw | Svidler Wins |
| Aronian | Anand | Draw | Draw |
| Caruana | Giri | Draw | Draw |
| Karjakin | Nakamura | Karjakin Wins | Draw |
Standings through 2 rounds are fairly close to predictions:
| Standings Through Round 2 | |||
| Actual | Predicted | ||
| 1.5 | Anand | 1.5 | Anand |
| 1.5 | Karjakin | 1.5 | Karjakin |
| 1 | Aronian | 1.5 | Nakamura |
| 1 | Giri | 1 | Aronian |
| 1 | Svidler | 1 | Giri |
| 1 | Caruana | 1 | Svidler |
| 0.5 | Nakamura | 0.5 | Caruana |
| 0.5 | Topalov | 0 | Topalov |
Round 3 predictions include 4 draws. Based on my statistics if one game is likely to be decisive it'll be Topalov beating Aronian. The other 3 games should be very quiet.
| Round 3 | |||
| White | Black | Result | Prediction |
| Nakamura | Svidler | Draw | |
| Giri | Karjakin | Draw | |
| Anand | Caruana | Draw | |
| Topalov | Aronian | Draw | |
Post your predictions below!
