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Candidates Predictions Update Rd 2

smarterchess
Mar 12, 2016, 8:38 AM 8

I'm going to try to keep a log of how well my predictions do from December.  Round 2 I predicted half of the games once again, but the overall standings are becoming closer to my standings prediction.  I was way off in Hikaru through 2 rounds, predicting 1.5/2 instead of 0.5/2.  Overall though I did predict Hikaru to score 50%, below most people's expectations.

 

Round 2
White Black Result Prediction
Svidler Topalov Draw Svidler Wins
Aronian Anand Draw Draw
Caruana Giri Draw Draw
Karjakin Nakamura Karjakin Wins Draw

 

Standings through 2 rounds are fairly close to predictions:

Standings Through Round 2
Actual Predicted
1.5 Anand 1.5 Anand
1.5 Karjakin 1.5 Karjakin
1 Aronian 1.5 Nakamura
1 Giri 1 Aronian
1 Svidler 1 Giri
1 Caruana 1 Svidler
0.5 Nakamura 0.5 Caruana
0.5 Topalov 0 Topalov

 

Round 3 predictions include 4 draws.  Based on my statistics if one game is likely to be decisive it'll be Topalov beating Aronian.  The other 3 games should be very quiet.

Round 3
White Black Result Prediction
Nakamura Svidler   Draw
Giri Karjakin   Draw
Anand Caruana   Draw
Topalov Aronian   Draw

Post your predictions below!

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