Possible good news for my chess in disguise...

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KeSetoKaiba

This forum is mostly for my current chess.com friends, but I didn't think it was worthy of a blog post, so here is the forum thread...

I'm losing quite a good amount more rating on chess.com...but wait for it...

this might be a good thing in disguise, so let me explain. grin.png

I've noticed (and mentioned several times elsewhere) that how you feel ability-wise when you lose is important because sometimes we'll just play worse or tilt, but there is a specific type of loss which foreshadows improvement. If you feel okay in ability, but your recent games seem like you are playing well and (more or less) crushing your opponents BUT LOSING (usually by missing a tactic, or something small which collapses your position), then I've noticed this type of rating drop happens often just a month or two before a huge rating surge where you gain back the lost rating plus much more!

I've lost 50 points of chess.com rapid earlier this week and just lost about 30 more today (despite my chess feeling all right and my OTB doing better than ever). Oh sure, the rating drops aren't ever too fun to endure, but metaphorically mark your calendars everyone, because in roughly 2 months from now my chess.com rapid rating might be much higher again! happy.png

I'm creating this forum thread to "call it" in advance as well as to inform others of this rating pattern if they hadn't noticed it before. The observed pattern is that if your rating has stabilized around a certain rating for a while (not necessarily plateau, but could be) followed by a lot of losses which resemble tilt, but isn't (in rapid, this probably means dropping 50-100 points within a few sessions), then it might be an indicator that if you stay mentally strong through it (and don't legitimately tilt), then in roughly two months, the rating will have gained back AND gone up to the next threshold. 

We'll see what happens! happy.png

AcidicSnow

hopefully you're right!

chaotikitat

I haven’t ever tilted more than a few points in rapid lol

ninjaswat

*when I'm also in the middle of that*

KeSetoKaiba
James_771 wrote:

hopefully you're right!

Yup - it isn't a 100% thing (few things are), but this foreshadowing pattern comes up a lot I've noticed; this has happened several times to me before. 

In fact, here is one great example I've experienced: 

check out both blogs of mine if your an avid reader, or just compare the publish dates:

https://www.chess.com/blog/KeSetoKaiba/dropped-more-chess-rating 

https://www.chess.com/blog/KeSetoKaiba/today-is-the-day-2000-rapid 

The first one was posted Oct. 19, 2021 and the second one was posted Nov. 25, 2021. I had observed this pattern in my losses leading up to Oct. 19, 2021 and notice that almost exactly one month later, the rating had returned and increased to a new high for me (at the time). 

There is more to this than just wishful thinking and time elapsing; this appears to be a natural indicator of this rating increase likely to come happy.png

 

PerpetualPatzer123

This is happening to me too! Thanks a lot, KesetoKaiba!

KeSetoKaiba
little_guinea_pig wrote:

What do you mean by a bunch of losses which resemble tilt but isn't? I thought a bunch of losses was tilt?

I think that what you call the "certain type" of loss might just be running up against a bunch of underrated players or players having a good day.

Good luck getting your rating back

Thanks happy.png

What I mean is that you lose a ton just game after game. An untrained eye seeing your stats might interpret that as tilt, but you know that wasn't the case and it was simply just losing. Yeah maybe it was just running into players better as part of natural variance, but when you lose as many games as this (hence resembling tilt), it is less likely variance. 

If you were "worse" all around, then it might just be a large rating drop, but I suspect it is what I noted which may result in a large future increase because my chess is otherwise feeling solid

(rated otb has been super good for me lately, my chess.com puzzles seem good and went up some more today and I feel good with my chess overall other than the rating numbers drop)

Chessking4640

I agree my blitz is tilted rn and my otb going up quite a bit rn grin.png

KeSetoKaiba
little_guinea_pig wrote:

Well what's the difference between just losing and tilt lol

Tilt is caused by emotions (usually anger at losing, but sometimes other feelings like overconfidence can make you lose), whereas "normal" rating drops like this one aren't emotion-oriented.

Romans_5_8_and_8_5
KeSetoKaiba wrote:

This forum is mostly for my current chess.com friends, but I didn't think it was worthy of a blog post, so here is the forum thread...

I'm losing quite a good amount more rating on chess.com...but wait for it...

this might be a good thing in disguise, so let me explain.

I've noticed (and mentioned several times elsewhere) that how you feel ability-wise when you lose is important because sometimes we'll just play worse or tilt, but there is a specific type of loss which foreshadows improvement. If you feel okay in ability, but your recent games seem like you are playing well and (more or less) crushing your opponents BUT LOSING (usually by missing a tactic, or something small which collapses your position), then I've noticed this type of rating drop happens often just a month or two before a huge rating surge where you gain back the lost rating plus much more!

I've lost 50 points of chess.com rapid earlier this week and just lost about 30 more today (despite my chess feeling all right and my OTB doing better than ever). Oh sure, the rating drops aren't ever too fun to endure, but metaphorically mark your calendars everyone, because in roughly 2 months from now my chess.com rapid rating might be much higher again!

I'm creating this forum thread to "call it" in advance as well as to inform others of this rating pattern if they hadn't noticed it before. The observed pattern is that if your rating has stabilized around a certain rating for a while (not necessarily plateau, but could be) followed by a lot of losses which resemble tilt, but isn't (in rapid, this probably means dropping 50-100 points within a few sessions), then it might be an indicator that if you stay mentally strong through it (and don't legitimately tilt), then in roughly two months, the rating will have gained back AND gone up to the next threshold. 

We'll see what happens!

Anything to make yourself feel better resign.png

Dragolm

Well yeah that happens unfortunately mine is not this i had exams and was on a hiatus for quite some time and now i keep blundering plummeting around 150 points 😭

2021blitzgrind

Well I feel I lose most games by making some really stupid mistake instead of multiple small inaccuracies; my last few blitz games in particular were lost while I was quite decisively winning o_O. Am I just a bad player or am I unfocused most of the time? (My tactics is like 2600, which apparently is decent according to lgp, but I definitely am not that level in real games)

sndeww

Noticed that pattern with me as well, but it’s harder in blitz since +/- 70 is called a “normal fluctuation”.

KeSetoKaiba
2021blitzgrind wrote:

Well I feel I lose most games by making some really stupid mistake instead of multiple small inaccuracies; my last few blitz games in particular were lost while I was quite decisively winning o_O. Am I just a bad player or am I unfocused most of the time? (My tactics is like 2600, which apparently is decent according to lgp, but I definitely am not that level in real games)

You aren't a bad player; this is really common for people across all ratings. 

Game ratings are not equal to chess.com puzzle ratings because:

- chess.com puzzles are inflated several hundred points compared to game ratings

- playing a good chess game is much more than just tactics as it also requires positional knowledge (planning), endgame technique, opening theory and a lot more things too grin.png

Missing one or two things to lose when decisively winning, might be due to lack of focus, but it is more likely other things like the ones mentioned above. Pretty much everything is easy to see in retrospect, so missing it in the game and then facepalming afterwards happens even to titled players grin.png

KeSetoKaiba
B1ZMARK wrote:

Noticed that pattern with me as well, but it’s harder in blitz since +/- 70 is called a “normal fluctuation”.

True. It is just that for blitz it would either be a larger rating drop per session(s) to be considered "significant" enough for this clue, or it would require greater emotional insight into monitoring your emotions to sense this pattern before it is more easily visible. 

Blitz/bullet also has the factor of adrenaline as well whereas it is typically lesser in scale for rapid wink.png

LeeEuler

I believe in you! I have found that IM Bartholomew's advice has really benefited me-- play a set number of games a day regardless of win or loss. Really helps me prevent tilt and bad habits from forming when I just mindlessly press "play again"

MisterWindUpBird

I have noticed the exact same trends. And the losses at that point are usually just what you outlined... At some point You kind of know there's a win opportunity there, but you muff it, and go on to lose. The analysis shows you were right, but messed it up. And they come in a series. In the past I usually have studied up on that position, and a little while later make a big leap upwards. I think it means you've effectively learned how to get yourself into that strong position, but need to gain some familiarity with where to proceed from there. As I'm currently losing, I hope that big gain, little loss, big gain pattern repeats shortly. I've found it even happens like that with puzzles.

chanelno5x

I think there is a lot of truth to that.  Great observation!  Looking forward to seeing your rating growth in 2 months happy.png

Dragolm
2021blitzgrind wrote:

Well I feel I lose most games by making some really stupid mistake instead of multiple small inaccuracies; my last few blitz games in particular were lost while I was quite decisively winning o_O. Am I just a bad player or am I unfocused most of the time? (My tactics is like 2600, which apparently is decent according to lgp, but I definitely am not that level in real games)

Yea and the worst part is you notice how much of a blunder it was and how good of a move there was right after the move

MisterWindUpBird

Strange when players over 2000 call themselves 'bad.'