- Well my 2 cents would go on CooloutAC.
If the idea is 'anyone can achieve 2000+ rating with sufficient time, training and effort' then frankly this is simply not true. I won't even argue that everyone could achieve 200+! In fact I would guess that >50% of people couldn't get 200+!? Chess is the sort of activity were this could well be true. - Nature (or DNA) puts a cap on what is possible with all the Nurture in the world. The life-skill trick is to mine Nature in the most min-max practical way possible, and of course have as wide an early experience as possible such that a person (or child) can determine the best direction(s) to follow (something educational systems are not necessarily good at).
This is not something I was educated to believe when young but is the 'obvious' conclusion from a long life. And as subjective as this is, I won't even argue the point. - What I would argue is that the average chess player now, is superior to the average four+ decades ago. I doubt this is the case at the very extreme of talents, i.e. the early World Champions were just as likely to be as talented as the later ones. Expressed simply we live in a far richer world from which the vast majority benefit from, something the young have little understanding of and hence the sheer number of
- youthful anti-progress movements and memes. Nurture >> Nature being one such harmful movement.
You were closer to the truth two week ago when you posted about how it is money which limit adult GM. Kids don't need to work, their parents pay for the coaches, mentors and everything else and adults don't see any reason to invest time and money with such small chance of getting investments back. And sure, money is one of motivators for people but existence of researchers should show that it is not the only motivator there is. But lets go on with your post:
- Great hypothesis, do you have any proof that chess is a game where >= 50% of people can't get higher rating than 200 on chess.com? Maybe the median rating would be a good start, afterward we need to remove mostly inactive accounts and than see if those in the lower half or even lowest quartile and see if and how they improve their game. After that we could see if they would improve with some intervention (1 hour chess coaching on weekday + homework). Otherwise, pretty sure that 90% of healthy people who have iq >= 90 and are able to play chess, can improve.
- Yeah, min-maxin life sounds fun. A bit like asian (China, South Korea and Japan from what I've heard) school and parenting system where kids spend their whole day on the important things only. If something does not generate money, why waste your time on it?! Materialistic, capitalistic realism gung ho!
- Wait, what?! Average player has become better at chess because the environment became richer (I guess you mostly mean availability and access to information and global chess community)... but it was our lovely genes which hard capped our possibility to improve at chess? Did we had a chess breading program I am unaware of? Because I doubt more nutrition in food is explanation between 1982 and 2022 so called improvement in average chess player.
- The fact the a better study environment together with better learning methodologies can improve mostly anyones skill, knowledge and ability is "anti-progress"? What the actual F'k?!
Response to 1. You are qualifying my original statement in order to argue against it, additionally the qualification used actually supports the statement! How many people have IQs > 90 etc?
Response to 2. Adults will gravitate towards things they are good at and away from things they are poor at. Consider the foolishness of doing the opposite. Children on the other hand do need to be coerced as they have no knowledge/experience or even comprehension of what societies consider valuable in terms of being a productive member of the society. Consider the foolishness of doing the opposite.
Response to 3. Not all chess players reach their full potential - indeed very few do, I was merely saying that in all likelihood it is easier to do today than yesteryear. Therefore if true one would expect in absolute terms for the average chess player to be better today than in the past. If you accept that there has been progress over the last few decades then one would must follow the other?! Consider how the reverse could happen - food getting relatively cheaper and more abundant results in thinner people?
Response to 4. You switched subjects, "youthful anti-progress MOVEMENTS", although perhaps such a coda was a bit pointless in this context. I'll not make the same mistake twice!
The best source of understanding of the Nurture v Nature debate is Steve Pinker's book "The Blank Slate". Not an easy read, definitely 2400+, however chapter one should be sufficient for most.
No comment on how your previous stance on "money maketh master" would crash with "masters are born"? Okay then.
- I don't think I qualified your statement in the first part of my argument, only in my counter hypothesis. Your argument that less than 50% of population could get over 200 point on chess.com. My argument would be that you should be able to show that from available statistics. I can find the mean, median and quartiles values for chess.com but they do exist and from what i remember 600 - 1000 is median in most time controls here. I don't even know how many players are <=200 right now. And that would mean that almost every new player from general population would be worse at both playing and learning than todays bottom players.
I add qualifiers for my previous statement just to make sure that we avoid "but what about mentally disabled or coma patients" kind of answer. I forgot that average intelligence, right after borderline cognitive disability, starts at 85 and not 90 iq. Sorry, that was my fault. But I am pretty sure that roughly 84% of population is >= 85 iq according to classical bell curve:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User
mcq
EDIT: the picture doesn't work even if it shows perfectly in my edit view, so here is wiki link:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IQ_distribution.svg - Maybe when we talk about work and even then some people prefer to do things they like instead of things they are better at. I would agree that there is an overlap between things we like and things we are good at but when talking about hobbies, which chess is for majority of people, then I would say that many prefer to do things they are objectively worse as long as it is fun. And I would hate to live in a society where we only do things which we have predisposition for. Sound like a very boring dystopia.
- But why would you assume that average players in 1980 didn't reach their biological peak and yet 50% of population can't reach higher than 200? Also, we have a problem here with definition of average player: today almost anybody who wants to play chess, can play online. In 1980 most who played were either in clubs or at best played a bit with their friends and family. I would assume that average chess player would have rating in 1980 because the less gifted players would drop out faster, since they wouldn't have anybody to play with.
- No no, I quoted movements but just removed it in my answer since it is the idea of "Nurture > Nature" which make the movement "anti-progress" and therefore must have "anti-progress" value. I just disagree that this idea is especially youthful or "anti-progress".
Reason for the first part is that I have heard many more youth movements and ideas today which focus on "we are who we are born as" in regard to once body or abilities in school. And while I like that we are aware that everybody have both upper limits and lower starting points in different domains but often the arguments are turning more and more fatalistic.
Reason for the second part is that I think more progress can be done in a society where we strive to become better even in areas where we don't have natural talent instead of just following are biological programming like meat machines. After all, Gattaca wasn't a manual for good and humane society.
Meh, good read probably but I have a feeling that I have either seen his lectures or lectures in evolbio which talked about the book. And sure, I do agree that we have both ceiling and floor on different skills and abilities set by our biology. Given how our genes express differently given different external and internal environment, epigenetics, I would be careful to talk about hard caps and focus more on soft caps and ranges instead.
mcq
Kids progress faster then adults for the same reasons the there are no GM's who didn't learn as a teen. Ever hear the saying you can't teach an old dog new tricks. It is because at that age they have a natural ability to condition their minds and develop the exercised skills necessary. Its why Christopher Yoos father once said in these forums that doing puzzle rushes and training for fast tactical vision and pattern recognition are most important at a very young age for them to be successful later in their chess careers. HIkaru has talked about how certain tactics and playstyles cannot be learned after a certain age. You have to learn these things at a young age while the mind is developing.
Habits you develop when you are young are much harder to break when you get older. That is true. That does not mean they are impossible to break, however. You are assuming that the only reason kids progress fast is because their minds are sponges. While that is certainly part of it (and the fact that they have not had years of bad habits they must break in order to improve), the massive amount of idle time they can devote to a skill is far more important.
Take learning a new language as an example. It is much easier to teach kids a new language when they are young. Does that mean that it is impossible for an adult to become fluent in a new language? Not at all - it happens all the time.
There is this nihilistic attitude that if you didn't learn something as a kid you are doomed. That is simply nonsense. Are you going to get a Nobel Prize in Physics if you just learned Calculus at 35 years old? The odds are not at all in your favor. Does that mean you cannot become good at Calculus? Not at all. It may take you longer than a 15-year-old who is studying it all day, but you can get there. The same goes with chess.
Its an unrealistic rating for most people. Its funny you say all one has to master is tactics, but at the same time you claim the traditional myth that classical will help players get better at blitz. When fast tactical vision and pattern recognition are more important in blitz versus memory and prep which is more important in classical.
The best blitz players on the planet all learned chess by playing classical chess. You can get better at blitz by playing blitz. You cannot get better at chess by playing blitz. You are simply reinforcing your bad habits by doing so. The irony being that you still think you know what it takes to improve at any time control despite not doing so at any time control. You are like the guy who just passed algebra walking up to Einstein and telling him General Relativity is wrong. Good luck with that.
@ziryab is the perfect example with only a 1700 blitz rating and 1800 rapid. Guess 2000 is not so easy after all. And this is a guy who has lived and breathed chess for 20 years. Blitz is what people aspire to play here and that is the true judge of chess strength online because it is the time control between bullet and rapid. Rapid online is a joke because there is much fewer players and the competition is much weaker since the better players prefer blitz and bullet and yet he is still only 1800.
His OTB rating is in the mid-1900s. His peak online rapid and online blitz ratings are in the mid-2000s. His peak bullet rating is over 2100.
But yes, rapid online is a "joke" because you are bad at it and get smacked around. Same with over the board chess. You know what, you should go down to Washington Park and tell those guys that OTB chess is a joke.