A game with the devil

Lets say that one night you were about to go to the kitchen and you walk past your living room where a chess table is set up, you look into the living room on your way into the kitchen, and on the way back into your room, you look again into the living room and you see that one pawn has been moved forward by the white. You are alone home so you are pretty freaked out at first, but then you go into the living room and sit in front of the table and play the black one, you then hear a voice inside your head claiming it to be Satan himself, and he has come to you to give you a chance of one wish if you win him. You can not see him, you can merely see the pieces move. He claims he is going to play as a player with the skill level of 100 elo points below your current elo rating. However, if you lose, he will have your soul for all eternity.

Do you play him or not?  This isnt a trick question, its just to see how much confidence you guys have in your skill.

As long as the time controls are standard/classical. How could you gamble something like that on a blitz game!

Ok but... the question isn't set up as well as it could be.  Satan would probably lie and not play at 1400 for example.

Also it's a risk reward situation.  The optimum outcome with minimum effort is simply to not play.

But essentially "would I risk everything if it had to beat a 1400 player" hmm.  On a whim, no.  It doesn't seem reasonable.  i.e. what do I win if I win the game?  You have to sweeten the deal.

How confident am I that I'd beat a 1400 player?  I would expect to score in the 90th percentile over a large number of games.  Hope that answers your question

@OP: Why should I believe Satan? His credibility doesn't have a good track record.

Also, what would be the risk or reward of declining? Simply forfeiting the opportunity for his proposed "wish"?

Thats right whirlwind, Satan is just very bored that night. And i said this isnt a trick question so just assume he isnt lying this time.

@OP: I would never believe him. 

Ooooh, I get a wish.  I missed that part.

Well stories like the monkey's paw (especially since it's satan) make me a bit worried.  e.g. I'll wish for immortality and so I die... because after you die once you can't die again! [insert satan's troll face]

Ok ok, but the question is, would you risk everything to gain anything if all you had to do was beat a 1400 player.  My answer is no, because I'm fairly content.

Hmm, but that's an interesting question... how low of a rating until I'd agree?  I'm not sure.  Maybe I'm too cautious because this doesn't seem like a good deal regardless.  To "risk everything" as it were seems too irresponsible no matter the odds.

Since my current rating is <1100, I would decline without concern or question. If my rating were >2200, then I MIGHT consider it.

Sounds like just another night to me...although usually the voice in my head turns out to be this guy:

At any rate, I'm pretty sure Satan already has my soul (so I don't know why he's throwing some skittles into the bargain).

I changed it a bit, i think its a bit more realistic if he played with 100 elo points below your elo rating, i think thats a bit more feasible.

Also the wish has to be in accordance with physical laws, and it cannot directly affect other people, only yourself, like if you wish for a world peace, you would pretty much be mind controlling every leader in the world to do as you bid and therefore taking away their free will. Also, the wish can´t raise peoples eyebrows, like if you wish for everyone in the world to suddenly become rich, or "end world hunger", then you would crash the world economy and it just wouldnt make any sense if you think about it.

100 points aint much my friend.  Maybe this picture is more along the lines of the answer you're looking for... rating difference with expected score percent of Higher rated player and Lower rated player.

And do we have to sign that stupid contract thing?  That's so passe.

anyone that agrees to such a thing is little naive. it's effing satan!!!!!!!!!!! for christ sake. obviously he's going to double cross you!!!!!!! 

on the topic of "voices in people's heads" claiming to be satan? yeah...don't believe it. it's tech. clifton has it right. 

(skittles are delicous aren't they clifton? bwahhahhhahaaaaaaaaaaaaahha ahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhahha) 

that chart there, that probably is based off standard tournament games played in real life under normal tournament conditions right? just curious.

It's simply based on this:

Where EA is the expected score (e.g. 0.31 would be 31%)
And RB - RA is simply the rating difference between the two players.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system#Mathematical_details

right. these sorts of things. where in an ideal world where x, y and z are always true (or assumed to have no value), then this equation will be accurate.

probably is fairly accurate when predicting the results of standard tournament games played in real life under normalized tournament conditions though.

"Hey, I'm not His son!  I'm Him!" (heehee!)