Chess will never be solved, here's why

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DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

You shouldn't keep talking to yourself, btickler. Especially not on posts addressed to others, because newcomers, who don't know you, won't know it's just what you do when you're talking to yourself. It's understood that you have difficulties and challenges to overcome.

I will say in your favor that it is gratifying that you finally learned how to quote posts without mucking up everything to the point of unreadability the way you used to.  It proves you can actually learn something even now.

tygxc

@7921

"winning lines are irrelevant"
++ This indeed is an important observation.
All legal chess positions fall into 3 classes: draws, white wins, black wins.
For all positions with 7 men or less the 7-men endgame table base tells us which class those positions belongs to.
We also know that the initial position is a draw.
So weakly solving chess involves hopping from the drawn initial position to other drawn positions and finally to a 7-men endgame table base draw.
So of all legal positions only the drawn positions are relevant to weakly solving chess.
The white wins are pitfalls black must avoid, and the black wins are pitfalls white must avoid.
Obvious pitfalls for white i.e. black wins are:
1 g4? 1 e4 e5 2 Ba6? 1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nc6 3 Nxe5?, 3 Nd4? 3 Ng5? 3 Nh4?, 3 Ba6?
Also some logically inferior moves like
1 a4, 1 Na3, 1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nc6 3 Ng1 are not relevant either.
To weakly solve Chess only one black response that draws is needed.
Probably 1 e4 e5 and 1 e4 c5 draw as well,
but we only need one to weakly solve Chess, so the other is not relevant.
Probably 1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nc6 and 1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nf6 draw as well,
but we only need one to weakly solve Chess, so the other is not relevant.
Probably 1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nc6 3 Bb5 Nf6 and 1 e4 e5 2 Nf3 Nc6 3 Bb5 a6 draw as well,
but we only need only one to weakly solve Chess, so the other is not relevant.
This makes it plausible that only Sqrt (10^37 * 10 / 10,000) = 10^17 positions are relevant to weakly solving Chess.

tygxc

@8165

"you arent just calculating 1 black response"
++ I use the already calculated ICCF WC draws as seeded lines.
I take the black moves as they were and explore white alternatives.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I don't think you should go on and on about mental infirmities in others. Talking of patterns, it can only draw attention to yourself, even if some don't see the pattern right away. And objecting, like you did then, to a harmless colloquialism for "a bit mad" can only reveal undue sensitivity in you to that subject. Keep quiet about it like a good chap and keep on trying because overall, you're winning. I am on your side, you know, but you do need the occasional prod in the right direction.

You're right, maybe I should be more grateful.  How about I take out a local ad that drums up some business for your family?

"Chapman:  the therapy you need if you are a bit doolalli."

Shouldn't cost much.  You might want a better photo, though.  Just saying.  

Elroch
MEGACHE3SE wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@8047

"you have to find that tree first"
++ Yes: for black play the top 1 Stockfish move after 17 s calculation on a 10^9 nodes/s cloud engine, for white explore the top w (e.g. w = 4) Stockfish moves.

Let us take an example with this ICCF game as seeded line.
1 e4. Grandmaster E with cloud engine e will work on this.
Grandmaster D with cloud engine d will work on 1 d4.
Grandmaster C with cloud engine c will work on other first moves that do not transpose, notably 1 c4 and 1 Nf3.
Grandmaster E and cloud engine e will never have to look at any position with a white pawn on e2, shrinking the search space.
1...e5. Grandmaster E selects this. It is probably that 1...c5 draws as well and 1...e6 and/or 1...c6 might draw as well, but a weak solution only calls for one strategy to achieve the game-theoretic value of the draw.
From now on no positions with a black pawn on e7 are relevant. This shrinks the search space.

[snip]

that doesnt work lmao.  you prove absolutely nothing, literally by the second move you have a  false assumption

Indeed! It is hilarious.

Elroch
Optimissed wrote:
Elroch wrote:
MEGACHE3SE wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@8047

"you have to find that tree first"
++ Yes: for black play the top 1 Stockfish move after 17 s calculation on a 10^9 nodes/s cloud engine, for white explore the top w (e.g. w = 4) Stockfish moves.

Let us take an example with this ICCF game as seeded line.
1 e4. Grandmaster E with cloud engine e will work on this.
Grandmaster D with cloud engine d will work on 1 d4.
Grandmaster C with cloud engine c will work on other first moves that do not transpose, notably 1 c4 and 1 Nf3.
Grandmaster E and cloud engine e will never have to look at any position with a white pawn on e2, shrinking the search space.
1...e5. Grandmaster E selects this. It is probably that 1...c5 draws as well and 1...e6 and/or 1...c6 might draw as well, but a weak solution only calls for one strategy to achieve the game-theoretic value of the draw.
From now on no positions with a black pawn on e7 are relevant. This shrinks the search space.

[snip]

that doesnt work lmao.  you prove absolutely nothing, literally by the second move you have a  false assumption

Indeed! It is hilarious.


In order to try to provide some sort of solution within a tight time and cost frame, it's necessary to do something like this. It isn't a false assumption by the second move, since it's acceptable to assume, with about 100% chance of being right, that black cannot win by force. However, it obviously isn't to the taste of those who, probably wrongly, believe that a deductive solution should be possible. I think there are problems regarding what people expect of deduction. In a system like this, which although it's technically closed, is not perfect information, we really can't depend on deduction, because there are too many unknowns. Indeed, I think that tygxc is somewhat along the right lines. I can't see it though, in a cost frame of $3 million and a time frame of five years. What he is proposing is scientifically based, rather than purely deductively based.

Chess is a game of perfect information.

As always, the wise thing would be learn what the term means before arguing.

Elroch
Optimissed wrote:
Elroch wrote:
MEGACHE3SE wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@8047

"you have to find that tree first"
++ Yes: for black play the top 1 Stockfish move after 17 s calculation on a 10^9 nodes/s cloud engine, for white explore the top w (e.g. w = 4) Stockfish moves.

Let us take an example with this ICCF game as seeded line.
1 e4. Grandmaster E with cloud engine e will work on this.
Grandmaster D with cloud engine d will work on 1 d4.
Grandmaster C with cloud engine c will work on other first moves that do not transpose, notably 1 c4 and 1 Nf3.
Grandmaster E and cloud engine e will never have to look at any position with a white pawn on e2, shrinking the search space.
1...e5. Grandmaster E selects this. It is probably that 1...c5 draws as well and 1...e6 and/or 1...c6 might draw as well, but a weak solution only calls for one strategy to achieve the game-theoretic value of the draw.
From now on no positions with a black pawn on e7 are relevant. This shrinks the search space.

[snip]

that doesnt work lmao.  you prove absolutely nothing, literally by the second move you have a  false assumption

Indeed! It is hilarious.


In order to try to provide some sort of solution within a tight time and cost frame, it's necessary to do something like this. It isn't a false assumption by the second move, since it's acceptable to assume, with about 100% chance of being right, that black cannot win by force. However, it obviously isn't to the taste of those who, probably wrongly, believe that a deductive solution should be possible. I think there are problems regarding what people expect of deduction. In a system like this, which although it's technically closed, is not perfect information, we really can't depend on deduction, because there are too many unknowns. Indeed, I think that tygxc is somewhat along the right lines. I can't see it though, in a cost frame of $3 million and a time frame of five years. What he is proposing is scientifically based, rather than purely deductively based.

No, it is not acceptable to include reasonable guesses as part of a proof. This is not a difficult point.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

You aren't aware that there's always been a glitch, which they haven't bothered to repair? If you delete the wrong part of what you're quoting, you're then unable to write in the box. I hadn't understood the pattern because it's quite complex.

Missed this one before.  Ummm, yes I am aware.  I've been posting here for a decade and I quote and then edit every reply I make to remove excess nested comments (with very few exceptions).  It's certainly annoying, but not particularly complex.

They used some form of TinyMCE-like free source code to create the editor, and it has not received much love over the years.  The analysis editor added on is by the far the most work.

mpaetz
MEGACHE3SE wrote:

 

mpaetz did u see the part where i said that there is/was some definition confusion?  also, you are making a mistake on a difference that optimissed and I pointed out.  that is the difference between a scientific proof and a math proof. 

whether the sun is egg is a scientific question.  the complexity of solving chess is a math question. 

also physics at that level is so freaking complex that optimissed cant be faulted for not knowing exactly what it was about (what he said was also somewhat rhetorical).

     To quote American humorist Foghorn Leghorn; "That's a joke son. I say that's a joke." Not meant to be taken seriously. Only pointing out how ridiculous some comments here have been.

mpaetz
tygxc wrote:

@8103

"Sveshnikov's plan: the conclusion has been reached before the investigation begins"
++ The aim of weakly solving Chess is not to ascertain that Chess is a draw, we already know that, but rather to establish how.

     Exactly. You already have the conclusion and make sure you don't investigate enough possibilities to risk finding out it may be incorrect.

mpaetz
tygxc wrote:

@8104

"so we will arbitrarily start from a few selected positions with 20% of the pieces eliminated"

++ No, not arbitrarily, but thoughtfully. That is why Sveshnikov first asked for good assistants and then for modern computers. That is why the grandmasters are as essential as the computers.
I presented a complete rationale starting from an ICCF WC draw as the seeded line.

     One man's "thoughtful" is another man's "arbitrary". Your arbitrary selection of likeminded "experts" to cull the lines to be examined by  admittedly imperfect machines cannot produce something that many people will consider a believable solution.

mpaetz
Optimissed wrote:


I wouldn't mind betting that chess is a draw with someone who thinks it may not be. Or betting that 1. e4 e5 2. Ba6 loses for white with someone who thinks it may not. neither would have a chance of winning so I could make a lot of l=money on an accumulator betting their dollar (or a £) against my million, a thousand times. Not that I have a million. I could borrow it against the certainty I would win.

     As you have often expressed the opinion here that unassailable proof on these points is either impossible to obtain or lies countless years in the future you would face financial ruin.

     I do agree with you on both points but you won't be able to produce any proof that will convince doubters to pay up.

Intellectual_26

Someone show an advantage for Black, here;

https://www.365chess.com/opening.php?m=10&n=347&ms=e4.e5.Nf3.Nc6.Bb5.Nf6.d4.Nxe4.O-O&ns=3.5.5.6.5.273.1722.18420.347

Intellectual_26

Howdy ha!

Intellectual_26

A multiple of 100 is reached by Me, yet again!

Elroch
Optimissed wrote:
mpaetz wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@8103

"Sveshnikov's plan: the conclusion has been reached before the investigation begins"
++ The aim of weakly solving Chess is not to ascertain that Chess is a draw, we already know that, but rather to establish how.

     Exactly. You already have the conclusion and make sure you don't investigate enough possibilities to risk finding out it may be incorrect.


I wouldn't mind betting that chess is a draw with someone who thinks it may not be. Or betting that 1. e4 e5 2. Ba6 loses for white with someone who thinks it may not. Neither would have a chance of winning, so I could make a lot of money on an accumulator, betting their dollar (or a £) against my million, a thousand times. Not that I have a million. I could borrow it against the certainty I would win.

I'll take your bet that 1. e4 e5 2. Ba6 loses for white at odds of 10^24 to 1.  How much do you want to stake?

MEGACHE3SE
tygxc wrote:

@8165

"you arent just calculating 1 black response"
++ I use the already calculated ICCF WC draws as seeded lines.
I take the black moves as they were and explore white alternatives.

thats making an assumption that black's moves are perfect/good.  also, you need to calculate moves by black in response to white moves that differ from the seed.  

MEGACHE3SE

"Probably 1 e4 e5 and 1 e4 c5 draw as well,
but we only need one to weakly solve Chess, so the other is not relevant."

actually no, both are relevant, because you dont know which one draws, wins, or loses. you choose one, and if that one fails, you have to check the other.  but you cant gaurentee that the first one you choose works

MEGACHE3SE

tygxc you are also still assuming a draw.  

MEGACHE3SE

my GUESS is a draw.  it hasnt yet been proven, though.