That could be, but the rest of life still gives you credit if you get lucky and guess correctly. A stock pick, a decision to buy that questionable house, taking 4th street to get to the store instead of Maple. (later finding out a fatality happened on Maple), the errant tee shot that hits an OB marker and bounces back into play. Pretty much all of life, and chess too, you get credit for being lucky.
Very true, demonstrating that life is very different from a math test.
Being tired is not random error. It's a lack of focus and skill on your part.
Being tired is not random (it's a predictable consequence) but its effect is random.
Calling it lack of focus is nonsense.