Official World Championship Thread - #CarlsenKarjakin

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Avatar of MSC157

Hello everybody!

Welcome to the: 
Official Prediction Thread of the 2016 World Chess Championship.
Here, you can discuss the games throughout the match and of course make some predictions (ideally according to the rules Tongue Out).

It'll be easy. I've chosen 10 parameters on which you can make predictions. Each segment is awarded differently.

The World Championship Match consist of 12 games. If there's no winner, additional 4 games of rapid are played. If no winner, then 2/4/6/8/10 blitz games are played. If no winner again, Armageddon takes place and decide the match.

Deadline for predictions: Thursday, November 10th, 15:00 GMT

Prize: 1€ (PayPal)
Fine print 

So, have fun playing and observing it! Smile



Here are a couple of links for you:

Avatar of MSC157

Choose your picks for the following sections.
Copy the comment and fill your choices in the brackets (the easiest way to do it):

  1. Winner of WCC
    (25 pts) - [Carlsen/Karjakin]
  2. Number of games played in WCC
    (15 pts) - [0-27]
  3. Number of all wins in WCC
    (15 pts) - [0-27]
  4. First win - round
    (12 pts) - [0-27]
  5. First win - player
    (12 pts) - [Carlsen/Karjakin/none]
  6. Tie-break?
    (10 pts) - [Yes/No]
  7. Average number of moves per game
    (5 pts) - [0-100]
  8. Most used opening move
    (4 pts) - [1.e4, 1.d4, 1.c4, 1.Nf3, ...]
  9. Points difference at the end
    (2 pts) - [0-7]
  10. BONUS: Result of Game 7
    (1 point) - [Carlsen wins/Karjakin wins/Draw]
----------------------------

----------------------------

Clarifications:

  1. /
  2. The 27 represents the number of all possible games. It's unlikely they'll play all games though. For the record, 16 games were played in 2012, the most in this format until now. Look post #5 for additional info.
  3. /
  4. Number of the round in which the first game is gonna be decisive for either side. Mark '0' if you believe they're gonna draw everything.
  5. Name of the player that will win the first game.
  6. Mark if tie-break will be needed or not.
  7. I'll award 5 pts for the ±1 range, 3 pts for ±2 and 1 point for ±3. 1 decimal allowed.
  8. /
  9. /
  10. Important: I'll award +1 if you correctly guess the winner and +0.5 if you correctly guess the game was drawn. However, if you get the prediction wrong, the following penalties apply: If you predicted a draw and the game was won by either player, you lose half a points (-0.5). If you predicted a winner and the game was drawn, you get 0 points. If you predicted the wrong winner, you get +0.25. This is implemented to discourage draws. 
Avatar of MSC157

PREDICTIONS LIVE

Stream on chess24

Avatar of Pulpofeira

1. Kaspa... I mean, this Carlsen kid.

2. 13.

3. 5.

4. 4.

5. Carlsen.

6. No.

7. 45.

8. 1. e4.

9. 2.

10. Draw.

Avatar of MSC157

Pulpo... you just got me thinking. Actually, the total number of games can only be:

  • 7-12 (standard), 
  • 15 (3 games of rapid), 
  • 16 (4 rapid), 
  • 18 (1st blitz portion of 2 games), 
  • 20 (2nd blitz portion), 
  • 22 (3rd), 
  • 24 (4th), 
  • 26 (5th) or 
  • 27 (Armageddon).
Avatar of Pulpofeira

Ah, yes! 2. 10 then.

Avatar of Drawgood
Really? We have your permission to discuss that topic here? Thanks MSC157. I want Carlsen to win and beat Karjakin. I think he will.
Avatar of matthew_b_rook
MSC157 wrote:

Choose your picks for the following sections.
Quote the comment and fill your choices in the brackets (the easiest way to do it):

Winner of WCC: Carlsen 
Number of games played in WCC: 11
Number of all wins in WCC : 4
First win - round: 3
First win - player: Carlsen
Tie-break?: No
Average number of moves per game: 41
Most used opening move: e4
Points difference at the end: 2
BONUS: Result of Game 7: 1/2-1/2

 

Avatar of ThomasJEvans
  1. Carlsen
  2. 11
  3. 4
  4. 3
  5. Carlsen
  6. No
  7. 45
  8. d4
  9. 2
  10. Carlsen win

Can we presume the average moves will be a mean score of all games, or will it be median or truncated mean (i.e. most and least are removed, average the rest).

Avatar of millersmastermind

Carlsen wins it all an ha 2 loses, 8 draws, and 5 wins. He then wins it all.

Avatar of StephenCorelli
matthew_b_rook wrote:
MSC157 wrote:

Choose your picks for the following sections.
Quote the comment and fill your choices in the brackets (the easiest way to do it):

Winner of WCC: Carlsen 
Number of games played in WCC: 11
Number of all wins in WCC : 4
First win - round: 2
First win - player: Karjakin
Tie-break?: No
Average number of moves per game: 41
Most used opening move: e4
Points difference at the end: 3
BONUS: Result of Game 7: 1/2-1/2

 

Carlson for sure

Avatar of DoctorStrange

You copied my thread.,..

Avatar of solskytz
MSC157 wrote:

Choose your picks for the following sections.
Quote the comment and fill your choices in the brackets (the easiest way to do it):

Winner of WCC CARLSEN
(25 pts) - [Carlsen/Karjakin] Number of games played in WCC  11
(15 pts) - [0-27] Number of all wins in WCC 3
(15 pts) - [0-27] First win - round 6
(12 pts) - [0-27] First win - player Carlsen
(12 pts) - [Carlsen/Karjakin/none] Tie-break? None
(10 pts) - [Yes/No] Average number of moves per game Who cares
(5 pts) - [0-100] Most used opening move Same as above
(4 pts) - [1.e4, 1.d4, 1.c4, 1.Nf3, ...] Points difference at the end 3. Carlsen wins game six, game eight and game eleven to clinch the crown with 7-4
(2 pts) - [0-7] BONUS: Result of Game 7 Draw
(1 point) - [Carlsen wins/Karjakin wins/Draw]

 

Avatar of BronsteinPawn

Hi guys, Im trouble doing my math, does two plus two equal 4?cry.png

Avatar of Pulpofeira

It helps taking some notes time to time.

Avatar of Pulpofeira

Your day must have been very boring then.

Avatar of ijgeoffrey
MSC157 wrote:

Choose your picks for the following sections.
Quote the comment and fill your choices in the brackets (the easiest way to do it):

Winner of WCC
(25 pts) - [Carlsen/Karjakin] Carlsen Number of games played in WCC
(15 pts) - [0-27] 12 Number of all wins in WCC
(15 pts) - [0-27] 8 First win - round
(12 pts) - [0-27] 1 First win - player
(12 pts) - [Carlsen/Karjakin/none] Carlsen Tie-break?
(10 pts) - [Yes/No] No Average number of moves per game
(5 pts) - [0-100] 60 Most used opening move
(4 pts) - [1.e4, 1.d4, 1.c4, 1.Nf3, ...] 1. e4 Points difference at the end
(2 pts) - [0-7] 2 BONUS: Result of Game 7
(1 point) - [Carlsen wins/Karjakin wins/Draw] Draw

 

Avatar of pdela

why is this the official thread instead of the thread I'm gonna create?

Avatar of Martin0
MSC157 wrote:

Choose your picks for the following sections.
Quote the comment and fill your choices in the brackets (the easiest way to do it):

Winner of WCC Carlsen
Number of games played in WCC 10
Number of all wins in WCC 4
First win - round 3
First win - player Carlsen
Tie-break? No
Average number of moves per game 45
Most used opening move 1.d4
Points difference at the end 3
BONUS: Result of Game 7 Carlsen win

 

Avatar of JShubham1907

Winner of WCC Carlsen

Number of games played in WCC 10

Number of all wins in WCC 3

First win - round 2

First win - player Carlsen

Tie-break? No

Average number of moves per game 36

Most used opening move 1.d4

Points difference at the end 3

BONUS: Result of Game 7 Carlsen win