ChiefBroccoli wrote:
Borislav Ivanov
Who's trolling now? Hahaha
Speculations on the Candidates' wild card
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!RemindMe 4 months 
Boy... the formatting in the original post really got screwed up. I typed up the post in a Word document with normal line breaks, margins and everything. Then I copy/pasted it onto chess.com... and this is what I got.
Where is the Candidates tournament held?
Sep 11, 2017
0
#8
They just announced Berlin. So now I'm saying Aronian if he doesn't qualify through the World Cup.
They can't give it to any German player, so he makes the most sense:
They can't give it to any German player, so he makes the most sense:
ChrisWainscott wrote:
They just announced Berlin. So now I'm saying Aronian if he doesn't qualify through the World Cup.
They can't give it to any German player, so he makes the most sense:
They can't give it to any German player, so he makes the most sense:
If I understood correctly on the chessbrah stream, Yasser and Eric said it may be Kramnik - Berlin...
kingofshedinjas wrote:
Kramnik just fell from 2800
He still has a significant advantage over #4 (not including Carlsen) in the average 2017 ratings though. If either Caruana or So qualifies via the World Cup (which is not unlikely considering they are the highest seeds left), Kramnik qualifies via rating.
I'm sticking to my position that Aronian is highly unlikely to be the wild card this time around because he was already given the opportunity the last time around. If anyone out of So, Kramnik and MVL (and Mamedyarov, although I'm assuming he qualifies via Grand Prix) doesn't qualify, they have a strong enough claim to the wild card to beat out Aronian. The one scenario where it might be Aronian, in my opinion, is if all three do qualify, and the choice comes down to either Aronian or someone like Anand, Grischuk, Naka, etc.
macer75 wrote:
He still has a significant advantage over #4 (not including Carlsen) in the average 2017 ratings though. If either Caruana or So qualifies via the World Cup (which is not unlikely considering they are the highest seeds left), Kramnik qualifies via rating.
Ok... looks like I have to edit that. Caruana's (relative) weakness in rapid has finally cost him in a major way.
I just want to congratulate macer on a great debate point and a well written post. I think that your speculations are very logical, well done you just made the forum's a better place. I think your correct in speculations though with all the upsets in the world cup So may not make it to the final so I would bet that the player who misses out on rating will qualify because this year it's very tight so any other choice would seem wrong.
JamesAgadir wrote:
I just want to congratulate macer on a great debate point and a well written post. I think that your speculations are very logical, well done you just made the forum's a better place. I think your correct in speculations though with all the upsets in the world cup So may not make it to the final so I would bet that the player who misses out on rating will qualify because this year it's very tight so any other choice would seem wrong.
Whyn thank you for your high praise! I must say, though, that given most of my other activity on the forums, I had to chuckle at your comment about me making the forums a better place. Not that I think you were suggesting abything else, but people who are familiar with my more... light-hearted work would either completely disagree with that designation, or (in the case of many of my fellow light-hearted posters) find it very ironic, in a good way. But anyway, I digress. All of that has no bearing on the topic of this particular thread.
BobbyTalparov wrote:
There is one player you left out of the wildcard list that I think has an outside chance at getting it (purely for political reasons): Hou Yifan. I realize she is nowhere close to the others in terms of rating, but I would not be surprised if the organizers and FIDE try to include her to encourage more female players.
According to this Race to the Candidates' spreadsheet
the organizer's nominee must have recorded a rating of 2725 or higher on at least one 2017 rating list. So that would disqualify Hou.
ChrisWainscott wrote:
Who's the organizer? They award it, not FIDE.
Oh, right... thank you for pointing that out. It doesn't really change my predictions, considering that in the past the identity of the organizer does not seem to have had a marked effect on the wild card chosen. But yes, it is important to note that I was mistaken in saying FIDE chooses the wild card.
ChiefBroccoli wrote:
Borislav Ivanov
the real OG 
hiding out in prison for 15 years lol
macer75 a écrit :
JamesAgadir wrote:
I just want to congratulate macer on a great debate point and a well written post. I think that your speculations are very logical, well done you just made the forum's a better place. I think your correct in speculations though with all the upsets in the world cup So may not make it to the final so I would bet that the player who misses out on rating will qualify because this year it's very tight so any other choice would seem wrong.
Whyn thank you for your high praise! I must say, though, that given most of my other activity on the forums, I had to chuckle at your comment about me making the forums a better place. Not that I think you were suggesting abything else, but people who are familiar with my more... light-hearted work would either completely disagree with that designation, or (in the case of many of my fellow light-hearted posters) find it very ironic, in a good way. But anyway, I digress. All of that has no bearing on the topic of this particular thread.
I meant that this post made the forum a better place. I 'm not talking about any other post. This serious post is better than any of your ''light hearted ones''
JamesAgadir wrote:
macer75 a écrit :
JamesAgadir wrote:
I just want to congratulate macer on a great debate point and a well written post. I think that your speculations are very logical, well done you just made the forum's a better place. I think your correct in speculations though with all the upsets in the world cup So may not make it to the final so I would bet that the player who misses out on rating will qualify because this year it's very tight so any other choice would seem wrong.
Whyn thank you for your high praise! I must say, though, that given most of my other activity on the forums, I had to chuckle at your comment about me making the forums a better place. Not that I think you were suggesting abything else, but people who are familiar with my more... light-hearted work would either completely disagree with that designation, or (in the case of many of my fellow light-hearted posters) find it very ironic, in a good way. But anyway, I digress. All of that has no bearing on the topic of this particular thread.
I meant that this post made the forum a better place. I 'm not talking about any other post. This serious post is better than any of your ''light hearted ones''
Well, I certainly disagree, but I'm glad that you enjoyed this one.
Sep 11, 2017
0
#19
The Candidates Tournament will take place in Berlin as FIDE stated today. Does this mean a German Player will get the wild card?
In my most serious thread in quite a while, I’d like to post some speculations on who will be the wild card for the Candidates' Tournament. To start off, there are two players who are highly unlikely to be the wild card, because they are all but certain to qualify via other means:
Fabiano Caruana
He currently leads the race for the two rating spots, and the only other real contenders are Kramnik and So (unless two of these three qualify via the World Cup). It is highly unlikely that both of the latter will surpass Caruana, particularly with So currently in the 2780s.
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
He currently occupies the top spot in the Grand Prix standings. To surpass him, Radjabov or Ding Liren must score about 100 points in Palma, and MVL must score about 130. To knock him out of the qualifying spots, two of the aforementioned three must surpass him, and the chances of that happening are not high, to say the least.
Now, with those two accounted for, I’d like to begin with a note on a player who, in my opinion, is the most deserving of the wild card (should he fail to qualify), but who almost certainly will not receive it.
Levon Aronian
He has the distinct disadvantage of having been the wild card the last time around. Even if he has been in the eyes of many (perhaps most) the best player in 2017, giving the wild card to the same player for two cycles in a row would probably be a bit much. I expect FIDE to avoid the potential controversy by giving it to someone else who is almost as deserving – because as spectacular as he has been, Aronian hasn’t been winning absolutely everything.
So if Aronian isn’t going to be the wild card, who will it be? My thoughts:
Wesley So
If he doesn’t qualify via other means, he will be the wild card. So’s performances in late 2016 and early 2017 were simply too good to ignore. If one were to do a poll today on who they would like to see challenge Carlsen for the title, So would be either #1 or #2 behind Aronian. In short, his absence in the Candidates would be extremely conspicuous, and FIDE would not let such a thing happen.
Vladimir Kramnik
If he fails to qualify via other means, he will probably be the wild card. For Kramnik to not qualify, So will have to qualify by rating. Assuming that Aronian is out of the question, the wild card would be between Kramnik and MVL. Last time around, Kramnik was the highest-rated player who did not qualify, but was not given the wild card. Since then he has consistently been among the top few players in the world (he is the only player other than Carlsen who has not dipped below 2800 on an official rating list since Jan. 2016), so to deny him the wild card again would seem a bit cruel, even if MVL has been arguably more impressive lately. Everything considered, I would give Kramnik a slight edge over the Frenchman if the wild card competition were to come down to these two.
MVL
If So and Kramnik both qualify, then he will be the wild card. If, once again, Aronian is out of the picture, then unless MVL sleeps with Kirsan’s wife, who else is there to compete with him?
Anand, Nakamura and others
There is one dream scenario for players who have not been particularly impressive in 2017, wherein all of the obvious choices for the wild card manage to qualify:
Aronian via World Cup
One of Caruana, Kramnik and So via World Cup (meaning that the other two will qualify via rating)
Mamedyarov and MVL via Grand Prix
Or, come to think of it, if MVL qualifies via Grand Prix, it could also work out to have two of Ca, Ka and So qualify via the World Cup. The remaining one will qualify by rating, and the second rating spot would go to Aronian, who sits right behind the top 3 and MVL. In any case, the important thing is that all of the best players of 2017 qualify – in which case the competition for the wild card would be blown wide open. Among the remaining players, Grischuk has not lost a game in 2017, and played well in the Grand Prix; however, he has not participated in top-level supertournaments like Anand and Nakamura, so would that put him at a disadvantage? Would FIDE value the prestige that another former World Champion would bring to the tournament, or would they be more inclined to choose a younger player? I’m afraid that I can’t say.
Anyway, the above is my analysis on who will be the wild card, depending on which players qualify – or, rather, which players don’t qualify – via other means. Once the other 7 spots are finalized, I will give a definitive answer (one name) on who I think the wild card will be. In the meantime, what are other peoples’ thoughts on this topic?