Who will win the FIDE Candidates 2024?

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Avatar of MauiMorgan

Inb4thelock

Avatar of magipi
Uhohspaghettio1 wrote:

So adding Nakamura's bars together - Nakamura only has around a one in three chance of still being in it after his game against Gukesh if that's correct. That goes contrary to at least my intuitive feeling on it, like I would have thought Nakamura would probably be still in it after his final match, now I'm a lot less confident.

I don't understand why you use "intuitive feeling" when you could use simple logic instead.

Nakamura needs to win the game. Winning on demand, when your opponent only needs a draw, that's a tall order. And if he doesn't win, he's out.

Even if he does win, there may be a playoff to play against the winner of Fabi - Nepo.

Avatar of KevinOSh

Gukesh is now in the lead and is the favourite to win this tournament.

https://www.chess.com/news/view/2024-fide-candidates-tournament-round-13

A draw against Hikaru in today's final round could be enough but it will depend on the result of the Caruana vs Nepo game.

Avatar of Expecions

NOOO those are NOT as accurate as the webiste https://stachesstics.com because this website simulates MILLIONS of variations to find who is the actual favourite including ratings performance in the tournament so far and a roughly +0.2 White advantage!

Avatar of Ath_arv1276

Gukesh is the top contender in my opinion.

Avatar of TwoMove

Some kind of play-off looks favorite, with a play-off between the joint winners of the tournament.

Avatar of DPPlayingChess
DPPlayingChess wrote:

No matter who wins! I will support Gukesh D. I like other Indian players too but mostly Gukesh.

And... I think that D. Gukesh will win!

Avatar of kjz30
TwoMove hat geschrieben:

Some kind of play-off looks favorite, with a play-off between the joint winners of the tournament.

is that you, Chat GPT?

Avatar of Alfiesb08

Fabi

Avatar of Amari2OI4

I was originally rooting for Praggnanandhaa, but using today's information, I predict that Gukesh or Ian will be first and second. Hikaru & the others will be third, Praggnanandhaa is fourth and Alireza wilk be last.

Of course the people who are tying will get a spot for themselves, but that's my overall prediction.

Avatar of Jokey

Nepo always owns the candidates... I'm rooting for him.. His loss against Ding Was heartbreaking... I hope he makes a comeback this year.

Avatar of Ivandel188

Nepo

Avatar of Mayank_3000

Ghukesh is leading guys

Avatar of Wind
grasshopper_mouse wrote:

I wrote a program to estimate the chances of each outcome after round 14.

Wow, this is very interesting!

Avatar of Wind
grasshopper_mouse wrote:

New odds if Fabiano wins and Gukesh wins.

Exactly what happened. Cool prediction, I'm imagining it'll concretize but super looking forward to watching how it unfolds today. happy.png

Avatar of Wind
Expecions wrote:

NOOO those are NOT as accurate as the webiste https://stachesstics.com because this website simulates MILLIONS of variations to find who is the actual favourite including ratings performance in the tournament so far and a roughly +0.2 White advantage!

That's actually very nice.

Avatar of lfPatriotGames
Wind wrote:

The FIDE Candidates Chess Tournaments 2024 are halfway through, with GM Ian Nepomniachtchi leading the Open event with 4.5 pts, and GM Tan Zhongyi leading the Women's event with 5 pts, both players so far unbeaten.

It has been a thrilling competition all along, with exhilarating games pretty much every round in both tournaments. At this point, it's almost safe to say that the GOAT's prediction has flopped.

With that being said, there are still lots of games to be decided, and ultimate chess to be played. In the next 10 days, all will be revealed.

So maybe we could toss in some names just for the fun of it?

  1. Who are you rooting for?
  2. Who do you think will win?

Looking forward to your replies and some fun convo!

Maybe at that point his prediction flopped, but his prediction was for the whole event, not half way through. Of his top 3 choices to win, all 3 are near the top. Of the 4 left, Gukesh is the only one he got wrong.

Avatar of Wind
lfPatriotGames wrote:

Maybe at that point his prediction flopped, but his prediction was for the whole event, not half way through. Of his top 3 choices to win, all 3 are near the top. Of the 4 left, Gukesh is the only one he got wrong.

Absoluvely! The man knows his stuff. happy.png

Avatar of Sack_o_Potatoes

ngl i think hikaru might win because he's gonna go hyper aggressive against gukesh today, so i think hikaru might win, but most likely gukesh will win

Avatar of Ziryab
Ath_arv1276 wrote:

Gukesh is the top contender in my opinion.

Going into the final day, Gukesh is the top contender by any objective analysis. Unless he loses today, the worst he can do is a tie for first.