Inb4thelock
Who will win the FIDE Candidates 2024?
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Uhohspaghettio1 wrote:
So adding Nakamura's bars together - Nakamura only has around a one in three chance of still being in it after his game against Gukesh if that's correct. That goes contrary to at least my intuitive feeling on it, like I would have thought Nakamura would probably be still in it after his final match, now I'm a lot less confident.
I don't understand why you use "intuitive feeling" when you could use simple logic instead.
Nakamura needs to win the game. Winning on demand, when your opponent only needs a draw, that's a tall order. And if he doesn't win, he's out.
Even if he does win, there may be a playoff to play against the winner of Fabi - Nepo.
Apr 21, 2024
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#124
Gukesh is now in the lead and is the favourite to win this tournament.
https://www.chess.com/news/view/2024-fide-candidates-tournament-round-13
A draw against Hikaru in today's final round could be enough but it will depend on the result of the Caruana vs Nepo game.
NOOO those are NOT as accurate as the webiste https://stachesstics.com because this website simulates MILLIONS of variations to find who is the actual favourite including ratings performance in the tournament so far and a roughly +0.2 White advantage!
Gukesh is the top contender in my opinion.
Apr 21, 2024
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#127
Some kind of play-off looks favorite, with a play-off between the joint winners of the tournament.
Apr 21, 2024
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#128
DPPlayingChess wrote:
No matter who wins! I will support Gukesh D. I like other Indian players too but mostly Gukesh.
And... I think that D. Gukesh will win!
Apr 21, 2024
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#129
TwoMove hat geschrieben:
Some kind of play-off looks favorite, with a play-off between the joint winners of the tournament.
is that you, Chat GPT?
Fabi
Hello. India in male and China in female are the new champion 🏆.
I was originally rooting for Praggnanandhaa, but using today's information, I predict that Gukesh or Ian will be first and second. Hikaru & the others will be third, Praggnanandhaa is fourth and Alireza wilk be last.
Of course the people who are tying will get a spot for themselves, but that's my overall prediction.
Apr 21, 2024
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#133
Nepo always owns the candidates... I'm rooting for him.. His loss against Ding Was heartbreaking... I hope he makes a comeback this year.
Nepo
Ghukesh is leading guys
Apr 21, 2024
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#136
grasshopper_mouse wrote:
I wrote a program to estimate the chances of each outcome after round 14.
Wow, this is very interesting!
Apr 21, 2024
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#137
grasshopper_mouse wrote:
New odds if Fabiano wins and Gukesh wins.
Exactly what happened. Cool prediction, I'm imagining it'll concretize but super looking forward to watching how it unfolds today. 
Apr 21, 2024
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#138
Expecions wrote:
NOOO those are NOT as accurate as the webiste https://stachesstics.com because this website simulates MILLIONS of variations to find who is the actual favourite including ratings performance in the tournament so far and a roughly +0.2 White advantage!
That's actually very nice.
Wind wrote:
The FIDE Candidates Chess Tournaments 2024 are halfway through, with GM Ian Nepomniachtchi leading the Open event with 4.5 pts, and GM Tan Zhongyi leading the Women's event with 5 pts, both players so far unbeaten.
It has been a thrilling competition all along, with exhilarating games pretty much every round in both tournaments. At this point, it's almost safe to say that the GOAT's prediction has flopped.
With that being said, there are still lots of games to be decided, and ultimate chess to be played. In the next 10 days, all will be revealed.
So maybe we could toss in some names just for the fun of it?
- Who are you rooting for?
- Who do you think will win?
Looking forward to your replies and some fun convo!
Maybe at that point his prediction flopped, but his prediction was for the whole event, not half way through. Of his top 3 choices to win, all 3 are near the top. Of the 4 left, Gukesh is the only one he got wrong.
New odds if Fabiano wins and Gukesh wins.
That's very interesting, thanks for posting that and to whoever created it.
Do you know if that is taking colours into consideration? That would be very important at this level and could change things completely. I guess it must be with those odds, there's only 30 points separating their live rating.
So adding Nakamura's bars together - Nakamura only has around a one in three chance of still being in it after his game against Gukesh if that's correct. That goes contrary to at least my intuitive feeling on it, like I would have thought Nakamura would probably be still in it after his final match, now I'm a lot less confident.
When you think about it Gukesh is perhaps a bit underrated due to to being so young and having rapidly increasing skill, likely his rating hasn't quite caught up with his true performance as he continually develops.
However there's probably something to be said for Nakamura's experience and his being on a positive streak, that would likely counterbalance Gukesh being underrated.
One in three - so there I was feeling like it was almost a sure thing, but trying to objectively think that it was more like 60% or so (that he would still be in it, not that he would win), hits hard if his chances are really only 33%.