So adding Nakamura's bars together - Nakamura only has around a one in three chance of still being in it after his game against Gukesh if that's correct. That goes contrary to at least my intuitive feeling on it, like I would have thought Nakamura would probably be still in it after his final match, now I'm a lot less confident.
I don't understand why you use "intuitive feeling" when you could use simple logic instead.
Nakamura needs to win the game. Winning on demand, when your opponent only needs a draw, that's a tall order. And if he doesn't win, he's out.
Even if he does win, there may be a playoff to play against the winner of Fabi - Nepo.
Inb4thelock