why isn’t blitz elo distribution aligned with rapid?

Rating is a reflection of past performance within pools of players. There's no reason to believe the distributions should be similar across pools.

Also different skill sets. The faster the time control, the more important speed, tactics, and pattern recognition become. The slower the time control, the more important calculation and strong positional skills become. That’s why Hikaru is rated at the top in blitz and bullet FIDE, but #20 in classical, while it’s nearly reversed for Fabi.

@goldenbeer - the other day when Fabi beat Firouzja both got out of the opening relatively equal. Fabi had more time because of great prep, but he played the middle game extremely precisely and laid some nice traps. To say that Fabi won because of a great memory and prep misses a lot.

Consider this: wouldn't great prep and memory be just as good, or maybe even better in fast chess? Seriously, think about it. If you can prep to move 20 and are way ahead on the clock, it should be an easy win.

No, the fact of the matter is that long time formats are for calculation not prep. Fabi is very precise when given time to think and he doesn't make a lot of mistakes. That's why he's so good in classical as compared to rapid or blitz.

@cooloutAC - also, Fabi made a very nice sacrifice on move 43 (I think) that gave him an advantage. You can't tell me that was prep, it was the process of deep calculation and making sure that it was sound.

I think that people who are good at blitz are just better at spotting tactics quickly and know patterns better. It's true that Hikaru hates prep and plays best by the seat of his pants, but his tactics don't work when his opponent can calculate lines for 10 minutes a move.

An error isn't forgetting a line, it's an error. It can be caused by many things. I really doubt when a player is sitting there for 10 minutes they are trying to remember a line if they are past move 15. They are calculating variations.

Pattern recognition is simply looking at a position and recognizing immediately what to do based on previous experience. For instance, people are able to solve puzzles quickly because of familiarity with what to do even if the position isn't exactly the same. Beginners say "well if I go here, then he goes there and I go here and then it's mate". It's the brain equivalent of muscle-memory, like riding a bicycle. It's absolutely not the same thing as prep. Prep is memorizing the best response to what your opponent plays in the opening and being able to play it immediately. Calculation happens in an unknown position with many possible moves where you have to play out what happens. A visual presentation of this is the final game in the Queen's Gambit where Beth is playing out variations on the ceiling to find the best move. Of course this isn't LITERALLY accurate to real life, but this is essentially what advanced players do when they calculate.

goldenbeer, I've read various places that fabi is considered one of the very best calculators. its not all engine prep because as soon as the opening is done he'd get very bad results.