Does True Randomness Actually Exist? ( ^&*#^%$&#% )

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Avatar of Optimissed
Eater-Of-Souls wrote:
KingAxelson wrote:

lichess? Get lost, you're not welcome here. 

As to the 'law of a larger cranium' I will side with the person who has the larger 'heart' any day.

yes, i think it went something like that.

Larger heart is not synonymous with generosity to undesirables.

Avatar of Optimissed

Sorry, but that doesn't wash, when you have spent several posts claiming (without providing a single genuine example) that you have some superior way of judging the probability of events than probability theory.

I am sure you believe this, so how can there be any harm in stating what at least one example of this might be?>>

It exists, Elroch. Those who  believe it cannot logically exist and who therefore ignore it are those who cannot benefit from it. To put it very simply, it is a feeling in your mind.

I know you have lost all patience with me. I suppose you don't like the combination of accuracy, honesty, scepticism and high intelligence. tongue.png

But I used to be able to see through solid objects. I'm not even joking. I probably could do it still. I can make people better by thinking. A long while ago I was shown a series of paranormal abilities, one after the other. Each one I repressed one after the other. That was instinctive. The final one was to see the truth.

That's why a lot of people find fault with me and ignore me.

Avatar of Elroch
Optimissed wrote:

I used to be able to see through solid objects. I'm not even joking. I probably could do it still. I can make people better by thinking. A long while ago I was shown a series of paranormal abilities, one after the other. Each one I repressed one after the other. That was instinctive. The final one was to see the truth.

That's why a lot of people find fault with me and ignore me.

I am available to scientifically test your, abilities.

Avatar of Elroch
Thee_Ghostess_Lola wrote:

they say the thing about doing a bernoulli trial is (taking like, say, 1BB trials) ?....that it will most likely show a *common sense* convergence to 50%. the counter is that the hard count itself will probably diverge away from 500MM each - as the count goes on.

iows, if we finish witha whopping 2MM diff btwn heads and tails ?

As I have explained, a disciplined Bayesian approach means your beliefs get revised in an appropriate way with empirical data. Here you think of there being 2 hypotheses: empirical data that is consistent with a hypothesis of p=1/2, and empirical data that would be extraordinarily unlikely with that assumption.

With Bernoulli trials, if you call heads 1 and tails -1, the standard deviation of the sum of N results is precisely sqrt(N). (This sum is twice the excess number of heads. Eg if you throw 3 heads and 1 tail, the sum of the values is 1 + 1 + 1 - 1 = 2, and the excess number of heads is 1, because you expected 2 heads and 2 tails).

Thus the standard deviation for a billion trials is about 31623 (square root of a billion). If you find there is an excess of 2000000 heads from 50%, this corresponds to (2000000/ 2) / 31623 = over 31 standard deviations. This has such a low probability that it is for practical purposes completely impossible to distinguish from zero (by comparison calculations on computers typically only deal with differences as big as 2**(-1024), which is a number with 308 zeros after the decimal point.

It is reasonable to say you simply do not get such wild divergences if p=1/2.

Avatar of MustangMate-inactive

And the Math proves it ! So there - take that !!

Avatar of Thee_Ghostess_Lola

really....turns literal and completely misses the point. lol ! 

Avatar of Sillver1

lol mustang, life arising from matter is a good example for something math cannot predict. It not even worthy of discussion : )

as for ID, it cannot be ’rejected’ logically. only with subjectivity and personal beliefs,  but I’m out now, and my phone acting... maybe some other time : )

Avatar of MustangMate-inactive

Lola ? I hope you didn't take my sarcasm as "totally missing the point" after everything I've written. surprise.png You should know better ! Elroch is an open book - totally predictable. Nothing random there  votechess.png 

Avatar of Elroch
Thee_Ghostess_Lola wrote:

really....turns literal and completely misses the point. lol ! 

Yes, my mistake was to deal with reality, whereas you are happier with something else.

Avatar of Optimissed

You are happier with that which is reality to you and which is backed up by current scientific standards. If you are a scientist then there's no shame in that. You have a living to make, which takes precedence. But the truth is that there are some others here who know a little more about reality in the context we're speaking about. All you have are arguments from authority. Other people have personal experience. Now I wonder which is the more convincing? I've made quite a study of the paranormal and so have others. To deny it is fine .... it's an attitude thing. You assume you are correct and possibly you will never try to find out if you ARE correct.

Avatar of MustangMate-inactive

https://noetic.org/

Have you seen this site @Optimissed ?

Avatar of Optimissed

Elroch, please let me tell you something about me. I was what is termed a "special" child. My memory goes back to six months old. Sometimes I even think I can remember being Christened, just about. I was a childhood prodigy ..... educational psychologist made special trips to look at me. I was also extremely messed up but that's another story. My IQ is between 160 and 170. Probably nearer 170 and higher on a good day. I had a photographic memory.

So I tended to think whatever I said was right. I was used to people being so much less intellectually able than me that it was like living in a very unrealistic environment. I was a logical positivist.

When I was 18 I met a beautiful, fantastic 17 year old girl. She could cook well, loved going for walks, made her own clothes, intellectually brilliant and a natural athelete. Always won Victrix Lodorum at her school and never trained. She felt sorry for the others who trained like mad and still got beaten in the high jump, long jump and 100 metres sprint. We're still friends. We used to have enormous arguments. She was into the idea of magic. I thought it was stupid. Eventually she asked me just to open my mind to it. To deliberately accept that it was possible I had been wrong. In a few days I realised I'd been wrong.

I wonder, Elroch, if you can actually understand what I'm saying. Incidentally I know we aren't allowed to say things like this but it's extremely relevant. I am a life-long tsiehta.

Avatar of Optimissed

Incidentally, I know that you are very, very bright. It's just that what is reality to you isn't reality to some others. To a large extent, we inhabit a world that we create, mentally. We attract others to it and it reinforces.

Avatar of Optimissed

Thanks MustangMate. It's always good to know that there are alternatives and that people are made aware of them. Not for me but I always thought one day I should get in touch with people who are doing this kind of thing. But your site looks a bit hierarchically structured. It used the word "curated". happy.png And I'm too far, geographically, from its foundation.

Avatar of king2queensside

A few interesting posts and many red herrings above and now my 2c…

 

True randomness does exists.

True randomness via a binary system does not exist.

The Universe is not random.

Chess is not random, although some of my moves are apparently.

Deviation in statistics is a given, anthing that comes out exact is not truely random,

 

And finally, some seem to conflate randomness with coincidence and use this as a semi-proof of some other type of structure or being, as in, I know I am not random, I am supposed to be here and therefore…. A poor argument of reduction which does not stand up.

Avatar of MustangMate-inactive

The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations, describe observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and precisely that it is expected to work. - John Von Neumann

Avatar of MustangMate-inactive

In the minds eye, a fractal is a way of seeing into infinity. The Mandelbrot Set is the most complex object in mathematics. An eternity would not be enough time to see it all.

Avatar of MustangMate-inactive

The first published picture of the Mandelbrot set, by Robert W. Brooks and Peter Matelski in 1978

Avatar of Sillver1

“True randomness does exists.

True randomness via a binary system does not exist.

The Universe is not random.

Chess is not random, although some of my moves are apparently.”

———

how did you reach your opinion that true randomness exit? in other words.. where do you see true randomness? The reason I’m asking is to learn your meaning of ”true randomness”

Avatar of Thee_Ghostess_Lola
Elroch wrote:
Thee_Ghostess_Lola wrote:

really....turns literal and completely misses the point. lol ! 

Yes, my mistake was to deal with reality, whereas you are happier with something else.

ur just feel let down that true parity doesnt get reached so u hafta make up SD's to find comfort. must be a hard thingy to accept, huh ?....how ur math theory doesnt follow reality ? lol !