Round eight of the Cairns Cup 2025 has set up a dramatic final round. After putting up her fourth consecutive win, against GM-elect Bibisara Assaubayeva, IM Carissa Yip leads the event. She'll face her compatriot and friend, IM Alice Lee, in a bittersweet last round where only one, but not both, can win the tournament and achieve the grandmaster norm.
The tournament concludes with round nine, which is on Thursday, June 19, starting at 1 p.m. ET / 19:00 CEST / 10:30 p.m. IST.
It's a two-horse race going into the final day. Only Yip or Lee can win the event. In addition, 6/9 is the score needed for a grandmaster norm, and only one of them can achieve it.
Cairns Cup Standings After Round 8
Image: Courtesy of the Saint Louis Chess Club.
All three leaders found themselves to be in trouble in the early middlegames. Humpy lost, Lee managed to draw, and Yip even won.
Rex Sinquefield visited the playing hall. Photo: Lennart Ootes/Saint Louis Chess Club.
Assaubayeva 0-1 Yip
Yip said that she wasn't exactly fighting for the win in this game, but of course it doesn't hurt. She said, "I think a draw would be a very good result against a higher-rated player with the black pieces, and I got into a bit of trouble after the opening, I felt." It's her fourth win in a row, after losing two early games in the first four rounds.
Yip was, indeed, in big trouble out of the opening, but Assaubayeva missed several chances to push c4. After the meek 20.Bb2?, Yip found the only equalizing plan of 20...Ng8! for ...Bh6 and suddenly forced a clearly better endgame. From there, with the bishop pair she outplayed her opponent.
Explaining the slow start, Yip said that she was feeling a bit sick at the beginning of the tournament but that she's now feeling better, adding, "I certainly got very lucky in almost all of my wins!"
She plays Lee for the tournament victory and also, perhaps more importantly, the grandmaster norm. It's an awkward position to be in for two friends, and she sweetly said, "If I don't get the norm, I'll be very happy for her."
If I don't get the norm, I'll be very happy for her.
—Carissa Yip
Yip in the studio with Seirawan. Photo: Lennart Ootes/Saint Louis Chess Club.
Lee ½-½ Harika
Lee played an enterprising opening idea, lifting her rook to e3 for a potential attack. But the engine isn't impressed with it, and indeed Harika's moves highlighted that no such attack really exists. She went on to outplay her opponent, and she had two clear chances.
The first one—and Lee noticed it during the game, too late—was that after the capture 20.Bxe4 Black had the decisive in-between move 20...g5!. This would have won an exchange and, most likely, the game. Harika took about a minute and made the automatic capture 20...Rxe4?, heading into the endgame.
Lee said, "I'm not sure if I had any bigger chances, but eventually it got into this endgame where she was kind of pressing and I had to find some moves to hold." Lee did a stellar job of defending for the most part, but there was one moment right at move 41, when Harika gained another 30 minutes, that a study-like win appeared out of nowhere. It's no surprise that a human didn't find the brilliant 41...Kh6!!, and the game ended in a draw.
"I really did hope to win this game, but also it's not really a must-win," said Lee, who did in a sense get away with one. She also said that attaining the grandmaster norm is more important than winning the tournament. For both, she'll have to win on demand with the black pieces against Yip.
Yip made a cameo in Lee's interview. Photo: Lennart Ootes/Saint Louis Chess Club.
Kashlinskaya 0-1 Dzagnidze
Our Game of the Day featured a sharp battle in the Sicilian Najdorf, though in a sideline. Truth be told, Dzagnidze was in big trouble out of the opening with the black pieces, though she had a chance to find the brilliant 16...Rc5!!, a temporary exchange sacrifice, to turn the game around.
Unsurprisingly, it wasn't a move she considered, as it walks into both 17.Bxc5 and 17.Nb7, but in both cases Black would end up with two minor pieces for a rook. Instead, she played the more sane 16...Be7?, but this move was objectively losing.
But she buckled down and defended the tough position. After 25.Rf5? g6, she said, "I managed to put pieces all together." GM Rafael Leitao analyzes the full game below.
Dzagnidze, who said this is usually one of her favorite tournaments, expressed that this event has been a struggle this year: "I didn't expect that this tournament goes so very hard for me." She added, "Until now, I am not satisfied with my play at all." Despite the harsh emotions, a win is a win!
Dzagnidze defended and then won from a worse position. Photo: Lennart Ootes/Saint Louis Chess Club.
Humpy 0-1 Batsiashvili
Batsiashvili won for the first time in the event, and what timing. She's effectively knocked Humpy out of the race to win the tournament. The Indian GM went all-out for the win and it backfired. As Batsiashvili explained, "She wanted to beat me, of course, because I was in last place. Chess is difficult!"
Chess is difficult!
—Nino Batsiashvili
The win comes better late than never! Photo: Lennart Ootes/Saint Louis Chess Club.
In a Queen's Gambit Declined, Humpy went for the aggressive 10.g4!?, which was fine, but 11.g5?! was too much, even if it was consistent. White over-extended her kingside and it backfired badly in the endgame, when Black started the counterattack with 26...f6!, ripping open the kingside. It's a great example of punishing dubious play on the flank, with an attack on the uncastled king.
Tan ½-½ Muzychuk
Tan, who won the Cairns Cup last year, has lost two games and made draws in every other game. It hasn't been a great tournament for the defending champion and number-one seed, and she explained (with Lee's mother translating from Chinese), "I missed some opportunities, but overall I made more mistakes this year than last year."
Tan, with the white pieces, went for a (dubious) pawn grab on b7—and even grabbed a second pawn on a7 after that. Black had full compensation and, with computer-like precision, could have even played for the advantage. Missing some subtle chances, however, Muzychuk ruptured the kingside and achieved a draw by perpetual check.
GM Yasser Seirawan asked if playing the FIDE Women's World Championship 2025 wore her down. "No," she said, "I don't think the main reason was because of the world championship. The main reason here I think is because all the players are fairly evenly matched, so if you miss one opportunity or so then the ranking [or evaluation] changes dramatically and it becomes very difficult to win."
Tan won't manage to defend the title this year. Photo: Lennart Ootes/Saint Louis Chess Club.
How will she finish the tournament? She said, "Tomorrow's opponent [Dzagnidze] has been a challenging opponent for me in the past, so I'm going to try to hold the game and it's not going to be easy."
The marquee matchup, of course, will be the clash of Americans, Yip vs. Lee. Don't miss it!
Image: Courtesy of the Saint Louis Chess Club.
How to review?
You can review the round's broadcast on the Saint Louis Chess Club YouTube or Twitch channels. The games can also be reviewed from our dedicated 2025 Cairns Cup events page.
The 2025 Cairns Cup, taking place from June 10-20 in St. Louis, is one of the strongest women's tournaments in the world. The event is a 10-player round-robin with a classical time control of 90 minutes for 40 moves followed by 30 minutes for the rest of the game plus a 30-second increment starting on move one. The event features a $250,000 prize fund.
