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On recent chesscom statement again PART 2

VladimirKramnik
| 10

Now lets talk about the research done by the world best anticheating team approved by misterious professor of top University 

 Our team has done the math and 

various simulations of streaks for a player like Hikaru who has played more than 50,000 games. We have found that not only is a 45 game winning streak possible, it is in fact likely given the number of games played. We have confirmed these results with external statisticians, including a professor of statistics at a top-10 university

Being just some ignorant person without a clue about statistics and mathematics, this detailed report raised questions, after consulting with matematicians, I would like to ask you

1 Where from is this number, 50 000 games? Is it counting ALL time controls and opposition level? If yes, obviously wrong using it, measuring probabilities of 3 min games versus a certain level of average rating players. If not, there are much less games to consider in your calculation. 

2. Did you include making those calculations how many streaks like that occured during the period of time "your" fifty thousand games played? I suppose this would change completely the probabilities, am I wrong? From your sophisticated report we conclude that you are talking about the probability of 1 such streak out of all games played on the platform. Please let us know since according to your statement there is a major obvious mistake here.

3 I appreciate the efforts of your mathematicians but to start with that streak 45,5 46 wasnt 40plus victory streak,but there were some other, like 55 out of 55, for example. Buy proper calculators, yours is old and broken, I suspect. On top it is not about nesseserally winning streaks but, for example, huge overperformance in dosens of consecutive games what matters here, but since you skip mentioning such parameter, I assume you didnt check this.

4 I am sure your people have checked the probabilities of having several such performances in a short perioud of time measuring from the total amount of games played during THAT TIME FRAME because it is the correct method of measuring probability, but just forgot to mention this in your report.

 Please, correct this, since definetely most important from tones of your numbers, generously provided in the research

    With deepest respect

                                             Vladimir

Hi everyone,

I have decided to create a blog here instead of publishing everything in my profile. Lots of interesting statistics coming and much more.

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