Can an average person ever break 2000?

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plutonia
FirebrandX wrote:
Rasparovov wrote:
FirebrandX wrote:
Rasparovov wrote:

Guys, 2000 isn't that high. The average person can reach it, it's just a question of how much time they spend. But if they spend the average time, they wont.

History suggests otherwise. 2000 is something like 97 percentile. So, yes, it is that high.

But that's because the average person doesn't try enough to reach it. 2000 doesn't take a fantastic unachivable amount of knowledge.

You just assume the 97% that have tried didn't try it all. That's total horse shit. I know people that tried for 10, 20, even 30 years, putting everything they had into it and never reached 2000. Since so very few officially rated chess players ever reach 2000 (only 3%), it stands to reason it's not this easy-to-reach checkmark that only the rare stronger player thinks it is.

You're looking from a perspective of it having seemed easy to you, therefore, it must be easy for the average person. That is a load of bullshit because it completely ignores the facts about only 3% of all rated ever getting there.

I'm getting real tired of pointing this out over and over: You cannot disregard the stats by merely claiming people didn't try hard enough. That makes for an impossible debate because it assumes the average person will become and exceptional person. It's a self-created paradox.

 

I'll tell you what, many people try but have no idea how to go about it.

Many assume you just have to play again and again and you will magically improve. Others stick to the London system and never learn anything else. Others don't really want to admit of having being positionally outplayed and say to themselves that they were fine until the move before they blundered a piece. Others try to avoid playing with stronger players, etc.

 

Let me do an example in a field where I know quite a bit: how many with a gym membership can bench press their own weight? I would say a small percentage. Yet almost anybody (16-50 years old male) could reach that, if he knew how to train. And that's the point, 90% of people in the gym have no clue on how to increase the weight on the bar. And that's because it's much more complicated than people think. Maybe you think that just going to the gym will magically make you improve, but nope. You need to know tons of things and follow strength-specific training routines. While all this info is freely available on the internet, disinformation on how to improve reigns.

So while the average guy could eventually bench press his own weight (and then more than that, of course), in practice few people can do it because the vast majority of gym goers have no clue on how to improve.

 

I take it something similar happens in chess. You can't just play. You need to know your stuff if you want to learn.

Ziryab
Kingpatzer wrote:
JG27Pyth wrote:

@Kingpatzer... 

For late mastery outlier my favorite example is I.F. Stone who was well into his sixties and suffering heart ailments when he retired from his great muck-raking journalism to go back to college and finish his B.A., -- eventually becoming an able classicist. At 80 he published: The Trial of Socrates -- a probing look at the political dimensions of Socrates's teachings and his relationship to the Athenian state. It's scholarly without being dull in either content or style -- a rare performance indeed. 

@Andy Clifton: 

Michael York -- Jenny Agutter -- Farrah Fawcett  

Run, runner! 

 

In the paradise of the future all life will be lived in a combination Vidal Sassoon salon/disco.   This is NO PLACE FOR THE OLD!

At the time I.F. Stone attended school, he almost certainly learned the basics of Latin and possibly Greek, in high school, and he was a quality researcher, writer and analyist as a jouranlist. And while he was a poor student in high school, that doesn't mean he didn't learn the material only that he was a poor student.

That's why he was able to make a living at it. All that changed for him really where the subjects of his reporting. In my mind those are fairly related fields. 

 It is however, the best example anyone's actually produced thus far, but I think a fair case can be made that well-written research is exactly what journalists are asked to do every day. 

We may ask that of journalists, but the vast majority simply rephrase the press releases they receive.

Kingpatzer

True. However, IF Stone wasn't one of those. His self-published newsletter is today highly regarded by journalists for the quality of his work. 

He was famous for digging through obscure public records and official publications to find the missing details necessary to make his case. While often considered a "muckracker" it's clear in retrospect that he was an extremely gifted investigative journalist. 

plutonia
Scottrf wrote:

In other words, 'it's not that hard, I've just not done it'.

Of course you can understand their moves and they seem unobtainable but that's quite different from getting there.

This is true. But then again, I've been studying chess for only 1 year (I did learn the rules when I was a kid though). I've improved a lot. Even taking into account the diminishing returns I think I can make some projections at least for myself.

Scottrf
plutonia wrote:
Scottrf wrote:

In other words, 'it's not that hard, I've just not done it'.

Of course you can understand their moves and they seem unobtainable but that's quite different from getting there.

This is true. But then again, I've been studying chess for only 1 year (I did learn the rules when I was a kid though). I've improved a lot. Even taking into account the diminishing returns I think I can make some projections at least for myself.

I've seen enough people make projections for themselves in this forum alone, a lot of them old topics, and can't remember any of the posters making the gains they expected.

zborg

On Average, this thread has much done a better job examining the recurrent themes of IQ, effort, and chess performace, than the hundreds of other threads devoted to the same topic.

I liked the story of the 40 year old training for dentistry.  Please note, he learned chess when he was 10 years old.  That helps a lot.  Smile

But I wouldn't describe that dentist as average.  Then again, most chess players aren't average.  So let's congratulate ourselves.

And USCF 2000 just ain't average.  Indeed, that rating level is very difficult for the hoi polloi to achieve.  Ditto for the "above average," too.

MANY, MANY, "non-average" chess players have yet to break USCF 2000, after years of trying.  Myself included.  Laughing 

Rasparovov
Bicarbonatofsoda wrote:

but the average person won't try hard enough to reach it ... so

ipso facto

case closed!

But the quesion is if the average person CAN reach 2000. "Ipso facto"

Rasparovov
Scottrf wrote:
Rasparovov wrote:

But that's because the average person doesn't try enough to reach it. 2000 doesn't take a fantastic unachivable amount of knowledge.

How do you know?

Because I'm close to breaking 2000 OTB.

zborg

After 800 posts a syllogism will decide?  What planet do you hail from, @Raspy?

You're obviously expectional.  Q.E.D.  Laughing  

Scottrf
Rasparovov wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
Rasparovov wrote:

But that's because the average person doesn't try enough to reach it. 2000 doesn't take a fantastic unachivable amount of knowledge.

How do you know?

Because I'm close to breaking 2000 OTB.


In which rating system?

ozzie_c_cobblepot

There are very few (I've met less than five) players who have treated the game so seriously that they can truly say they have achieved their full potential. I have met plenty of people who work very hard at the game though. Usually they have some things they are working on in great detail, be it openings, tactics, endgames, or whatever. My coach has names for the types of players, and I believe that each type has their own pet things they like to work on.

But. To reach your full potential, you need a trainer, you need a study plan, you likely need to be spending your available time for chess away from blitz, away from chess.com forums (haha!), and exclusively on whatever is in your particular study plan. You need to be a mature enough person that you realize that the learning process is a byproduct of both you and your teacher, and be prepared with ideas for what to study and/or how the lessons should go. And you need to be unafraid of failure.

In short, you need the personality type, which is exceedingly rare, that you treat a hobby with the utmost in seriousness.

SmyslovFan

The original question was about USCF 2000. I guess I was wrong about this thread lasting 100 more posts after post #648.

Rasparovov
Scottrf wrote:
Rasparovov wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
Rasparovov wrote:

But that's because the average person doesn't try enough to reach it. 2000 doesn't take a fantastic unachivable amount of knowledge.

How do you know?

Because I'm close to breaking 2000 OTB.


In which rating system?

LASK (Sweden) Which is pretty similar to Fide ratings since people I've met are always at pretty much the same level in both ratings.

Scottrf

Fair enough. You should stop sandbagging on here in that case Wink

Seraphimity

You guys crack me up 2000 OTB FIDE or USCF or TITLED Chess Player is going to be more then the average guy can handle.  Im not saying there are no exceptions.  The preperation and failure's in OTB play.  Beyond the time and energy we are talking a complete fundamental shift in quality of life.  

From what I understand:

1.  Average player started at around age 30 with little formal chess study as a child.

2.  is of average intellect, good.

3.  Will now compete in Rated USCF and FIDE OTB play matches.

4.  Will gain sufficient knowledge and success to cross 1999 in OTB tournement play.  

Its possible sure but the minute he begin's down this road he goes from average, to above average. 

Clearly we are not talking 2000 on this or any other web site.

Rasparovov
Bicarbonatofsoda wrote:
Rasparovov wrote:
Bicarbonatofsoda wrote:

but the average person won't try hard enough to reach it ... so

ipso facto

case closed!

But the quesion is if the average person CAN reach 2000. "Ipso facto"

will he or she try hard enough ?

Then the question is if the average person will spend enough time to reach it. The average time spent is not enough but the average person can reach 2000 with enough time.

bigpoison
FirebrandX wrote:
THETUBESTER wrote:

Now the public is clamoring for the FirebrandX / REB matchup!

Did I say I regularly beat 2200s? Nope. He just thought us patzers were talking out of our ass, and I took issue with that. ICCF is my chess focus now. That's my playground, and I've already had to prove one NM wrong on here who thought he could beat me there if I played the Petroff. He did not.

Beat you, or your beast?

jbskaggs

BTW what is a Patzer?

Also why is it bad to play blitz if you are trying to improve your rating?

Ziryab

If you read Michael de la Maza's dissertation, you may conclude that he is of average intelligence. He pleyed his first USCF tournament as an adult, and less than four years later was over 2000.

(He does seem above average in marketing, however.) 

bigpoison
ozzie_c_cobblepot wrote:

Isn't it unlikely that any one generation is smarter than any other generation?

You could, probably, argue that humanity is getting dumber with each successive generation since, I don't know, Roman times. 

Since natural selection no longer selects for humans, it's likely that the average Roman of 200 BC was more intelligent than the average American of 2000 AD.

The dumbass shit people can do nowadays and still come out unscathed would have gotten them killed years ago.

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