Chess will never be solved, here's why

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haiaku
MARattigan wrote:

A weak solution of this position, for example would have to look something like the accompanying moves.

The game theoretical value is a draw, so the Syzygy tablebase would not do for White's strategy according to van den Herik's definition,  because it would produce a win if Black played anything but KxN and the definition insists on a draw.

I'm not saying that the moves I posted don't constitute a weak solution. I would say, however, that the moves Syzygy gives would also constitute a weak solution, to the man in the street and also to people working in the game theory arena.

It may depend on definitions used implicitly. The game theoretic value of that game is a draw. A weak solution provides the game-theoretic value of the initial position and a strategy that guarantees at least that value (actually "at least" is even redundant, because the game-theoretic value is the minimum outcome that can be achieved with optimal play). So anything White plays after any first Black's move is indeed an optimal White's strategy for a weak solution, because Black cannot win. But since Syzygy tablebases are a strong solution, the game-theoretic value of all the legal positions from start to finish and a strategy to achieve that value are known, so If Black does not capture, the position becomes a win for White and an optimal White's strategy for a strong solution must achieve victory. Nontheless, since White cannot lose, her strategy for a strong solution is also good for a weak solution. So yes, there are implicit nuances in Allis and van den Herik's definitions that for practical purposes it maybe better to explicit.

I add that if an optimal strategy for White is known, indeed it is also known what is the best opposition Black can offer. In fact, the optimal strategy for White must work for all Black moves, so we know that the best opposition she can offer is the capture, in that position; therefore, we can determine an ideal game, where both sides do their best to achieve the draw (the game value of the starting position).

Elroch

I think your last sentence is correct, @MARattigan! wink.png 

For 1. a4 you need to deal with one response for black that you can prove forces a draw. That's all. (Assuming 1. a4 is not in white's strategy and chess is a draw).

White's strategy is one move for each possible position that he could see.  Black's strategy is similar. 

So White's strategy deals with 1 initial position and 39 positions after black's first move (see reasoning in previous post).  This makes no assumptions about black's play.

Likewise, Black's strategy deals with all 20 positions after white's first move but far fewer than the total number after his second (because he only needs deal with positions reached by strategy moves by him). And so on.

The fact that both players reduce the positions like this means that a position that can only be reached by both players playing at least one non-strategy move can be ignored, since neither strategy requires it. For example if 1. d4 d5 are strategy moves, the position 1. e4 e5 can be ignored.

 

playerafar

Another idea for 'weak solution'.
Instead of arbitrarily having only four candidate moves at each turn -
go by numerical evaluation parameters instead.
Opinion:  plus or minus 6 is Crushing.  In Stockfish.
Issue:  Has the computer been allowed to run long enough ?
I've seen Stockfish change its mind after a time. 
From plus to minus.  And a lot too.
But I've seen that time exceed 30 seconds !  
Uh oh ! ...  getting back into trouble again !  happy.png

There's the idea of supercomputers running in parallel.
So if you've got over 100 supercomputers in the room - they can each consider a move of a single position.
I can't recall seeing a position in my games that would have had 100 move options.
Middlegames are often in the fifties and endgames in the thirties.
But some of the move options are Ridiculous.
Running in parallel - the computers can tag-team each other as positions transpose into each other.

playerafar

Continuing with my idea (instead of being baited by whoever) -
instead of going by candidate number of moves (ridiculous when you consider how many candidates there might be - and how comparable they might be too)
- go by computer evaluation number instead.
Would it work?  I'm not saying it would or would not work.
I'm suggesting its worth some discussion.
I recall from the days when I played postal chess (several decades ago) -
I'd make written lists of all the legal moves available for my move.
Then - I'd make three columns:  They were 
Candidates (sometimes ten or more) - intermediate -
and - too obviously losing or inferior.

Then I'd start calculating and comparing the candidates -
but sometimes there was a snag - and it turned out that some or all of them were pseudo-candidates ...
at that point - the real candidates had to be found and compared from the intermediate list along with 'survivors' from the first list.
At no time did any move ever emerge from the 'ridiculous' list.  happy.png

Point:  computers would be very good at such lists.
Issue - the computer may on occasion be able to isolate one move - for example the opponent plays QxQ.  Now is there a big percentage of the time where you can justify any other move but the only Recapture ??
The computer would know when you could or couldn't.
Anytime an opponent takes a piece of your's - a big percentage of the time you're taking back.
Point:  its pruned down to just one move in many instances.

And:  Would it be rare that the computer would have 20 comparable candidate moves?  
1) a4 should stay in.   But e4 e5 Ba6??   In weak solving I'd say its reasonable to knock that out.  Much much More Reasonable than only having four candidate moves ...  which is numb and arbitrary.

appanparige

Photo

playerafar

Regarding @tygxc and his 'bravery' ...
He is pushing a kind of 'devil's advocacy' and that in turn is a service rather than a minus.
It results in @MARattigan and @Elroch and @haiaku and @btickler all systematically refuting and exposing and debunking his arguments - which in turn illustrates the issues of the forum subject.  
So @tygxc deserves some 'credit' there.
He asserts himself - stumbles - but they're right there !  happy.png

Elroch
playerafar wrote:

Continuing with my idea (instead of being baited by whoever) -
instead of going by candidate number of moves (ridiculous when you consider how many candidates there might be - and how comparable they might be too)
- go by computer evaluation number instead.
Would it work?  I'm not saying it would or would not work.
I'm suggesting its worth some discussion.
I recall from the days when I played postal chess (several decades ago) -
I'd make written lists of all the legal moves available for my move.
Then - I'd make three columns:  They were 
Candidates (sometimes ten or more) - intermediate -
and - too obviously losing or inferior.

Then I'd start calculating and comparing the candidates -
but sometimes there was a snag - and it turned out that some or all of them were pseudo-candidates ...
at that point - the real candidates had to be found and compared from the intermediate list along with 'survivors' from the first list.
At no time did any move ever emerge from the 'ridiculous' list.  

Point:  computers would be very good at such lists.
Issue - the computer may on occasion be able to isolate one move - for example the opponent plays QxQ.  Now is there a big percentage of the time where you can justify any other move but the only Recapture ??
The computer would know when you could or couldn't.
Anytime an opponent takes a piece of your's - a big percentage of the time you're taking back.
Point:  its pruned down to just one move in many instances.

And:  Would it be rare that the computer would have 20 comparable candidate moves?  
1) a4 should stay in.   But e4 e5 Ba6??   In weak solving I'd say its reasonable to knock that out.  Much much More Reasonable than only having four candidate moves ...  which is numb and arbitrary.

No-one can generate a general rule and know it is reliable. Passive-looking sacrifices can be best moves. That the position after 1.e4 e5 2. Ba6 Nxa6 is probably enough to win there is not knowledge, just (very likely good) judgement.

 

haiaku
Elroch wrote:

The fact that both players reduce the positions like this means that a position that can only be reached by both players playing at least one non-strategy move can be ignored, since neither strategy requires it. For example if 1. d4 d5 are strategy moves, the position 1. e4 e5 can be ignored.

I agree that identifying a strategy with the proof tree it provides and considering two separate strategies (one for each player), the union of the two strategies will not contain moves that are not part of either strategy. About the solution for checkers, though, what may leave some doubts to me is that, 1) as for chess, an optimal strategy and a game-theoretic value for checkers was not known, so in finding that optimal strategy, the evaluation function might not be able to discover the best lines immediatly; 2) more important to me is that "the vast majority [of openings] can be eliminated due to transpositions and alpha-beta cutoffs."[1] If the leaf nodes are tth or tbh, then ok, they have the true value of the nodes and they can apply alpha-beta to cut off llines; but if that means that they just did not check because the evaluation function at some depth said those positions are almost certanly a loss or a win (like e.g. a -6 or +6 in chess, using the pawn value as a measure of the advantage) while other openings almost certainly would lead to a draw, then indeed some approximations would have been made. Reading the better known paper, the authors say that the alpha-beta search (nominal depths 17-23 plies) used in Chinook was not designed to solve checkers, and it occasionally determined a proven win or loss; If Chinook did not find a proven result, then a second program with a different search algorithm (a Df-pn search) was invoked. At the end of page 3 [2], they say that "the rest [of the openings] can be proven to be irrelevant by an Alpha-Beta search". So it seems that the Alpha-Beta search was enough to hit a TT or the endgame with a win or a loss, otherwise it would have invoked the other algorithm and they would say "by a Df-pn search", instead.

@MARattigan, in the other paper you referenced, they say that "some opening results are bounded (≤ Draw). We only needed the bound to prove the root value. At the time of this writing, ongoing computations are working on turning these bounds into proven results (Loss or Draw)". That's the explanation imo for what we can find in the conclusion of that paper ("machines will be used to solve additional openings").

[1] https://icga.org/icga/journal/contents/Schaeffer07-01-08.pdf

[2] https://researchgate.net/publication/231216842_Checkers_Is_Solved

MARattigan
Elroch wrote:

I think your last sentence is correct, @MARattigan!  

...

Now I see what you're saying.

Your previous posts didn't mention "one response for black that you can prove forces a draw", only "one move", so I somehow picked up that after 1.a4 it would be sufficient to look at 1...a5 and say, "OK dealt with that".

playerafar
Elroch wrote:
playerafar wrote:

Continuing with my idea (instead of being baited by whoever) -
instead of going by candidate number of moves (ridiculous when you consider how many candidates there might be - and how comparable they might be too)
- go by computer evaluation number instead.
Would it work?  I'm not saying it would or would not work.
I'm suggesting its worth some discussion.
I recall from the days when I played postal chess (several decades ago) -
I'd make written lists of all the legal moves available for my move.
Then - I'd make three columns:  They were 
Candidates (sometimes ten or more) - intermediate -
and - too obviously losing or inferior.

Then I'd start calculating and comparing the candidates -
but sometimes there was a snag - and it turned out that some or all of them were pseudo-candidates ...
at that point - the real candidates had to be found and compared from the intermediate list along with 'survivors' from the first list.
At no time did any move ever emerge from the 'ridiculous' list.  

Point:  computers would be very good at such lists.
Issue - the computer may on occasion be able to isolate one move - for example the opponent plays QxQ.  Now is there a big percentage of the time where you can justify any other move but the only Recapture ??
The computer would know when you could or couldn't.
Anytime an opponent takes a piece of your's - a big percentage of the time you're taking back.
Point:  its pruned down to just one move in many instances.

And:  Would it be rare that the computer would have 20 comparable candidate moves?  
1) a4 should stay in.   But e4 e5 Ba6??   In weak solving I'd say its reasonable to knock that out.  Much much More Reasonable than only having four candidate moves ...  which is numb and arbitrary.

No-one can generate a general rule and know it is reliable. Passive-looking sacrifices can be best moves. That the position after 1.e4 e5 2. Ba6 Nxa6 is probably enough to win there is not knowledge, just (very likely good) judgement.

 

Yes - and bxa6 is probably winning too.  Although computers might rate Nxa6 much higher.
Point:  'Weak solving' as opposed to 'solving'.

MARattigan

Doesn't look drawing at any rate - but you never know.

playerafar

@MARattigan 
I tried the button and White is lost.

But regarding as to when we can dismiss a move for 'weak solving' purposes' ...  there's some 'big problems'  happy.png
Say one move was +2 and another -2 at the same point in the game with the same player to move.
The minus 2 can't be discarded - because it is not 'losing' ....
Lol !    happy.pngevil.pnggrin.pngblitz.pnggold.pngdiamond.png

playerafar

And - running that analysis button - which is Stockfish I believe (I don't know what version) 
then bxa6 isn't rated that far below Nxa6. 
(after giving it 30 seconds or so)
An advantage of over four points for black. 
But less than a point between the two takings of the bishop.

Next point:  Is a difference in evaluation of 4 points more than enough to dismiss a move (or to dismiss a candidate move for the opponent?)  ?
Could be.
Especially if the 'spread' is close to zero?
Say +2 versus -2.
But if one move was +12 and the other was +8 ... should the +8 be dismissed?  I'm thinking no.
Some would say "At +8 its 'over' anyway - no need to 'solve' further - so no worries about the +12 instead"
Which brings on another idea - anytime the evaluation for a move hits a certain plus number - then look for 'final time' on that move.
Same where all choices are too negative.  Its considered lost.
I would say even +6  (or minus 6) is Crushing. 
If that's the best move available.
But then there's a Nasty hitch ...  somebody has +6 available but plays a plus 3 instead.  Could we 'dismiss' the plus 3 ?  How?  It doesn't lose.

MARattigan

@playerafar

Try the analysis button here.

White to play and draw

 

playerafar


Hi Martin !
I answered your post but my reply refused to post !
I'll try this one now - and if that works - edit it maybe.

@MARattigan - the analysis button in your diagram indicated that white is Lost.

But now - there's a big 'problem' with 'dismissing moves'.
Say at any point in a game - with the same player to move - (computer vs computer) the top choice is +2 and the next one down is -2 ...
then can the minus 2 and below be 'dismissed' ?
It starts to look like No.  Because minus 2 isn't necessarily Losing !  
happy.pnggrin.pngevil.pngblitz.pnggold.pngdiamond.png

MARattigan

@playerafar

Point is it indicated wrong.

playerafar
MARattigan wrote:

@playerafar

Point is it indicated wrong.

You mean white can draw ??  happy.png
I guess I better look at your diagram some more.

playerafar
MARattigan wrote:

@playerafar

Point is it indicated wrong.

I think I get it - White's King just runs down to a1 and 'hangs out' there.
Doesn't shave.  Shirtless.  And ...
Great one Martin !
Several points arise from that.  
One could be that Nxa6 could be Much better than bxa6 in the Ba6 thing ?

playerafar
MARattigan wrote:

@playerafar

Well, I can't see any way he can win.

I tried some moves. 
Black can try to cut off b2 but then white just steps over and wins that pawn.
But it looks like there's a really Nasty Flaw in the engine there.
Because when I click on lines that have the White King shuttling between a1 and b2 - the engine Refuses to assign 0.00  !!
I wonder if chess.com is aware of the Bug ....
Am I certain that white draws this ?
Not 100%.
I don't see how black stops white from bouncing a1 to b2.

MARattigan

Main point is SF's numbers prove nothing.