Ok, but I mean... mathematicians are sort of famous for coming up with solutions 100+ years early, before people even knew there was a problem to be solved at all.
I know very little about both the theory behind statistics and economics... but doing this little program made me think they're connected.
Imagine you have a certain amount of gold. Its value depends on the market you enter, and commodities fluctuate day to day like a person's rating shadows their true skill.
In other words there were practical problems related to this since the dawn of civilization. So I'm surprised a mathematician didn't come up with something similar to Elo 1000 years ago
Well, yes, economists make extensive use of statistics, which is just about applicable in any form of academic research involving sample data. Both discIplines, while distinct, employ mathematical methods to represent theories and analyse problems.
I'll warrant that the conceptual notions revolving around Elo were of interest before Mr Arpad Elo. But the intricacies, the underlying mathematical aspect of it likely was not, and the mathematical aspect contributed a significant lot more (else, on which ground would the ratings be justified).
I'm not here to discuss math history, but might I add that 1000 years ago, mathematicians were concerned to a greater degree with pure math and the application of some of their problems, rather than mathematics employed for zero sum games like chess. They probably had to invest more time into ploughing the fields or hacking at the grass than develop a framework for the primitive zero sum games.
That goes said with John Conway's statement that all games are inherently mathematical. Such a statement on its own, of course, will not seem very much, but there are quite a significant array of implications, e.g. in combinatorics, game theory, logic, etc. Sadly Conway passed away just very recently on April 11 due to COVID 19. We all know of the incredible contributions he made to math. A natural problem solver, known universally to computer programmers as the creator of the Game of Life, and yes, I can't enumerate the massive impact he made on finite groups, knot theory, algebraic number theory and what not.
So if I tried to understand economics (which I'm ignorant about) via chess ratings (ok, I'm already lol at myself) then inflation is due to routinely overestimating the value of commodities.
By the time you find the correct value, it's too late, everything in the system has become "more" expensive (without altering the relative value between them). In other words the price of a car may be 10000x more than the price of a loaf of bread no matter what. But instead of 1 cent vs 100 dollars it becomes 1 dollar vs 10000 dollars.