Hicetnunc, I don’t have an informed opinion about Borislav Ivanov being a cheater. I leave that to the officials who have all the facts.
It looks like you have difficulties accepting statistical methods as a reliable way to detect cheating.
I see an unknown tennis player ranked 144th in the world just defeated the number 1 rank. Does that mean he cheated? I don’t think that rare performance alone is enough to prove cheating.
But this analogy is rather misleading. Nobody contests the fact that isolated upsets are sometimes possible - see for example :
http://www.pogonina.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2496&Itemid=
However, that's not what Regan is measuring : he is measuring the similarity between a player's moves and engine moves by looking at every single move over many games.
So, it's more like the #10000 tennis player in the world, winning two tournaments in a row and suddenly running and serving twice faster than he has ever done.
All discussions about actual cheating instances on chess.com are to be held in the special dedicated forum. This discussion is about an article published in an internationally respected chess magazine about statistical methods used in pursuit of cheating. Very distinct topics. And very appropriate here. And we are fortunate to be able to discuss this topic with the author directly, right in this forum.