His chances of beating Carlsen in a match are precisely zero- no more, or less than that.
agreed
Then I suppose you guys would agree to give me 20 to 1 odds against nakamura having a positive score against Carlsen when we only consider their next 12 classical games.
How much is the bet? How slow do you consider classical games to be?
With Nakamura I think people often are too quick to point out his scores against Svidler et al as a sign that he is overrated. It reminds a bit of how Carlsen was seen as "weak against top players" because he had bad results against some of them when he was 15-16 years old and far from a top player himself, and it took some years to catch up to his current even scores against Anand and Kramnik.
Nakamura's career score against Svidler looks bad and is often pointed out, but it is less often repeated that Nakamura has 2-0 against Svidler the last years. Nakamura has 5-3 against Kramnik, 3-0 against Anand and 3-0 against Caruana, and only one of the best players in the world could have results like that against such players. Then he does have bad results against for example Carlsen, while the 4-7 against Aronian isn't all that bad. Aronian has after all always been ranked ahead of Nakamura, and took his first win against him when the latter was #28.
Whoever will reach a title match in the future is difficult to say anything about. Leko never reached top three on the rating list, while Gelfand only was there on a list or two more than 20 years ago. There's no reason to see it as impossible for #3 on the January 2014 list to reach a title match some time on the future. At least he will certainly win a game against Carlsen sooner or later, both draws against him in Sinquefield Cup looked rather promising.
His results against the current top 11 players (in elo order):
Classical games: Magnus Carlsen beat Hikaru Nakamura 7 to 0, with 15 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Magnus Carlsen beat Hikaru Nakamura 12 to 5, with 20 draws.
Classical games: Levon Aronian beat Hikaru Nakamura 7 to 4, with 7 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Levon Aronian beat Hikaru Nakamura 9 to 6, with 12 draws.
Classical games: Hikaru Nakamura beat Vladimir Kramnik 5 to 3, with 7 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Hikaru Nakamura beat Vladimir Kramnik 9 to 6, with 12 draws.
Classical games: Hikaru Nakamura tied Veselin Topalov 1 to 1, with 4 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Hikaru Nakamura beat Veselin Topalov 3 to 2, with 4 draws.
Classical games: Alexander Grischuk beat Hikaru Nakamura 3 to 2, with 5 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Alexander Grischuk tied Hikaru Nakamura 5 to 5, with 7 draws.
Classical games: Hikaru Nakamura beat Fabiano Caruana 3 to 0, with 8 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Hikaru Nakamura beat Fabiano Caruana 6 to 1, with 8 draws.
Only rapid/exhibition games: Hikaru Nakamura beat Fabiano Caruana 3 to 1.
Classical games: Boris Gelfand beat Hikaru Nakamura 6 to 2, with 5 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Boris Gelfand beat Hikaru Nakamura 10 to 4, with 10 draws.
Classical games: Hikaru Nakamura beat Viswanathan Anand 3 to 0, with 8 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Hikaru Nakamura beat Viswanathan Anand 4 to 0, with 11 draws.
Classical games: Peter Svidler beat Hikaru Nakamura 6 to 2, with 3 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Peter Svidler beat Hikaru Nakamura 8 to 2, with 7 draws.
Classical games: Shakhriyar Mamedyarov beat Hikaru Nakamura 4 to 3, with 2 draws.
Including rapid/exhibition games: Hikaru Nakamura beat Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 8 to 5, with 2 draws.
Nakamura reached top ten for the first time in 2011, while the three years younger Carlsen was top five already in 2008. In January 2010 Carlsen was #1 and Nakamura #28, so Nakamura has improved a lot in a short time.
His chances of beating Carlsen in a match are precisely zero- no more, or less than that.
agreed
Then I suppose you guys would agree to give me 20 to 1 odds against nakamura having a positive score against Carlsen when we only consider their next 12 classical games.
How much is the bet? How slow do you consider classical games to be?
Well the bet would be 20 to 1. So since I saw one of the guys was from Greece I was thinking that after the american ends up with a plus score I could show up in his neighborhood in greece and buy one round of Ouzo for him and he would be obligated to then buy me the next 20 rounds. (I would probably be there with my wife to help me with those rounds)
And of course if the American does not end up with a plus score and I find him in my neighborhood well I would buy him a budweiser. After all as far as i know that is america's only king and it is from St Louis which is now America's chess City.
Since you are from Portugal I am tthinking I would drink wine when I visit to collect from you. But if you have other ideas let me know. But before you think you can bet and I will never show up, keep in mind I do love to travel.
Nakamura is the best at what he does best - calculating long strings of forced combinations quickly. But he is a one-trick pony. And he is not nearly well rounded enough to take Magnus.
Talents like Alekhine/Fischer/Kasparov/Carlsen only come along once in a generation. And taking their crowns takes far more than a Nakamura can deliver.
orangeishblue wrote:
At 26, not a chance. He is no longer an improving player.
To be honest, Hikaru has shown marked improvement over the last 18 months. But I still don't think he will reach the top. My moneys on Caruana.
JohnClairlively wrote:
pfren wrote:
His chances of beating Carlsen in a match are precisely zero- no more, or less than that.
What you mean to say is that this is your guess.
Because you couldn't possibly hope to understand either man's chess well enough to have an educated opinion on the matter.
Wow.
I take it you didn't bother to look at his rating before your posted that. Because pfren is rated like double most of us. And a titled player as well.
Yup #3 in world. Only he got what it takes
| 1 | Carlsen, Magnus | g | NOR | 2872 | 10 | 1990 |
| 2 | Aronian, Levon | g | ARM | 2803 | 9 | 1982 |
| 3 | Kramnik, Vladimir | g | RUS | 2793 | 0 | 1975 |
| 4 | Nakamura, Hikaru | g | USA | 2786 | 0 | 1987 |
Then why isn't it listed on www.fide.com?
Then why isn't it listed on www.fide.com?
Because FIDE updates their rating lists once a month, and 2700chess.com keeps track of ratings daily.
Yup #3 in world. Only he got what it takes
1 Carlsen, Magnus g NOR 2872 10 1990 2 Aronian, Levon g ARM 2803 9 1982 3 Kramnik, Vladimir g RUS 2793 0 1975 4 Nakamura, Hikaru g USA 2786 0 1987
Those aren't current. These are:
3 1 Nakamura 2789.1 +3.1 7 26 (09.12.1987) 4 1 Kramnik 2786.7 −6.3 8 38 (25.06.1975)Geez... looks like the New York Stock Exchange
I guess not everyone follows the top GM's that closely haha. 2700chess.com has the latest games as well as the current raitngs of everyone over 2700. I don't like Anish Giri's game particularly at the moment, he seems like something of a punching bag for the other top players. However given his age he still has a lot of time to improve so I'm not gonna say he wont become world champion. It's just a matter of how quickly and if he will improve.
Magnus Carlsen will be World Champ for a long time!
Fixing_A_Hole wrote:
Jion_Wansu wrote:
Then why isn't it listed on www.fide.com?
Because FIDE updates their rating lists once a month, and 2700chess.com keeps track of ratings daily.
.
Now that the topic is mentioned, why DOESN'T FIDE update daily? What, are they busy doing something else?
Fixing_A_Hole wrote:
Jion_Wansu wrote:
Then why isn't it listed on www.fide.com?
Because FIDE updates their rating lists once a month, and 2700chess.com keeps track of ratings daily.
.
Now that the topic is mentioned, why DOESN'T FIDE update daily? What, are they busy doing something else?
Yes, collecting money.
His chances of beating Carlsen in a match are precisely zero- no more, or less than that.
agreed
Then I suppose you guys would agree to give me 20 to 1 odds against nakamura having a positive score against Carlsen when we only consider their next 12 classical games.