Speculations on the Candidates' wild card

It would certainly be quite difficult for MVL to qualify via the Grand Prix. He would need to finish in at least clear second in a field of 18 players, which isn't a walk in the park for anyone in the world. But yes, I agree that he would be the obvious wild card pick if he fails to qualify.

MVL would only have been picked if the sponsors were French, this far the Candidates wild card always went to a countryman of the main sponsor, and it would be quite surprising if a Russian company paid all that money to pick a player just to pick MVL...

Alright guys, I'm going to make a BOLD prediction now. The field for the 2018 Candidates Tournament will be:

Sergey Karjakin

Levon Aronian

Ding Liren

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Alexander Grischuk

Fabiano Caruana

Wesley So

Vladimir Kramnik

Remember, you heard it here first!

I've only heard of half those names. Sometimes I'm not sure if I even play this game.

Basically, the money for the Candidate is Russian, so it will be a Russian player. Thus either Kramnik, Grishuk or Svidler, and probably the best rated who is still not qualified.

I agree.

Well... as of late it looks like Kramnik is really confident about getting that wild card spot...

Did he mess something up again?

No, he actually did quite well today. He managed to not lose against a 2400.

 @macer75 kramnik drew today. MVL and Aronian deserve a candidates spot more than anyone else right now, especially considering they are actually creative, fun players, as opposed to Caruana or So

Aronian has a spot from the World Cup so he doesn't need the wild card.  Agree that MVL is deserving but he might get in through the Grand Prix

"Agree that MVL is deserving"

Yes, he is probably the player that is most deserving of the wild card after winning Sinquefield Cup and missing out with such a narrow margin in the semi against Aronian in the World Cup. But the wild card doesn't have much to with with who is most deserving. The last time the Russians picked the wild card, for the 2014 Candidates, it stood between Grischuk and Svidler. Then #13 Svidler got it even though Grischuk was #5 at the time, so it's debatable if even the most deserving Russian got it.

Grischuk did much better in the qualification (5th in the Grand Prix series where Svidler was 18th), but he needed to win the last GP tournament to qualify. The tournament finished the day before the Russian Superfinal started, so Grischuk didn't play the latter. Svidler, on the other hand, suddenly withdrew from the last GP tournament, after which he could prepare better for and play the Russian Superfinal, which he won (after tiebreak against Nepomniachtchi, with Vitiugov in third). Then he got the wild card, while Grischuk missed out.

The most sensible thing would be to give wild card to Kramnik, one last time

Do we have a list of wild cards since this system started, anyone?

Wikipedia has the list, but you have to search by each WC cycle.  I'm not sure if Kramnik is actually going to retire anytime soon

ding, aronian, and karjakin are in

Kramnik has lost 2 points in his first 2 games in the European Club Cup. Safe to say a candidates rating spot is going to be incredibly tricky.

I feel the Wild Card idea should exist for one reason. That is to ensure that a deserving player doesn't miss out on the tournament if he failed to qualify through the normal routes.

So giving the wild card to someone who is totally out of left field, makes little sense. I feel once the list of qualifiers is known, the next few highest elo players should have their names put in a hat and one pulled out and he gets to be the wildcard.