IS IT SAFE TO GO TO TOURNAMENTS YET...3?

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lfPatriotGames
Marie-AnneLiz wrote:
lfPatriotGames a écrit :

Yes. Either you believe the sources that report this. Or you dont. Take your pick. 

 In fact, the disease has killed people in all age groups, including children who have developed a rare toxic shock syndrome, according to reports in recent days from New York and elsewhere in the United States and other countries.

Separately, a new study of children with Covid-19 admitted to pediatric intensive care units in the United States and Canada concludes that while the overall severity of symptoms in the children was “far less than that documented in adults… Covid-19 can result in a significant disease burden in children.” According to the research, published in JAMA Pediatrics, 40 of the 48 children, ranging in age from four to 16, had underlying medical conditions. Two of them died, and three remain on ventilators.

Meanwhile, more data is revealing how other age groups are affected. People ages 20 to 44 account for 20% of Covid-19 hospitalizations and 12% of ICU admissions, according to Paul G. Auwaerter, MD, at Johns Hopkins Medicine.

 lately more people under age 40 developing severe breathing problems and blood clots related to Covid-19.

“We are really shocked to see younger age groups have similar complications” as older people, Salata tells me, adding, “We’ve seen it in some younger people who had no risk factors.”

One does not have to die from Covid-19 to be severely affected. Some people who recovered from Covid-19 have been “unable to shake sickness and fatigue” weeks later. It’s too soon to know whether the disease might leave some people with enduring debilitations.

Exactly. We've known this for quite a while now. People with existing health problems are more at risk. I would think that would be common knowledge by now. 

DiogenesDue
Thee_Ghostess_Lola wrote:

but if any one of them were suddenly swapped out for a failed mutation like Covid-19, we'd all be dying

dont get this line. ur saying that C19 is a failed mutation ? seems pretty successful as its killing only a small % of its infectees. tho est @ very roughly R0=4. that is unless a successful mutation is one that kills. not u/s.

ok. take measles. they say it carries a ballpark R0=18. so highly successful ?...as it spreads wildly w/out killing off too many ? 

A virus is just an evolution of a living creature like any other.  The virus' "purpose" is not to kill the most people.  It's purpose is to "be fruitful and multiply".  To do this, it has to co-exist with humans and other animals it can infect, and infect them all as hosts without killing them, because it needs the most hosts possible, so yes, Covid-19 is a failed virus mutation.

If baby was born with Hulk-like strength and cat-like agility, but it killed its whole family when it was just playing around and starved to death without milk wink.png...that would also be a failed mutation.  The fact that is was a more powerful/deadly version of a human being would be beside the point.  It would never reproduce and propagate the mutation.

Chicken pox would be a good example of a virus that co-exists without killing its own hosts, unless it turns into shingles decades later down the road, and even then it's not really deadly, just debilitating.  That's why "chicken pox parties" for kids are a thing, arguably good or bad, and Covid-19 parties should not be a thing, because they are just 100% bad.  But people that rely on their "common sense" and disregard anything but firsthand experience...which is like the cheetah cub that gets a faceful of porcupine quills even though they see their mother and all their siblings shying away...they may survive, but they are not contributing to their species' successful evolution wink.png.  Now, when that same cheetah cub goes to a chess forum and tries to tell everyone to stick their faces in the quills and learn for themselves...those cheetah cubs become a public nuisance.

DiogenesDue

I doubt anyone on this thread can find a single quote anywhere on these forums where anybody claimed that people with existing health problems are not more at risk from the virus.  So that's a monumental straw man, worthy of going up in flames at Burning Man.

Thee_Ghostess_Lola

ok. i think i gettit....im u/s'ing u as saying that C19 is a failed virus mutation cuz its killing a small % of those it infects. ok. makes sense.

tho idt it can comprehend that mosta the ppl its killing are pre-conditioned w/a weekend immune system, right ? so would that still classify it as a failure in life ? (like summa the guys here on this island...lol !)

Thee_Ghostess_Lola

This just came out...

***

(CNN) Just weeks before schools must open across Florida, the numbers of new cases and hospitalizations due to Covid-19 have surged.

On 07.16.20, the state had a total of 23,170 children ages U-18 who had tested positive since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the Florida Department of Health. By 07.24, that number jumped to 31,150. That's a 34% increase in new cases among children in eight days.

And more children in Florida are requiring hospitalization. As of 07.16, 246 children had been hospitalized with coronavirus. By 07.24, that number had jumped to 303. That's a 23% increase in child Covid-19 hospitalizations in eight days.

On 07.18, Kimora Lynum died from Covid-19 complications, according to state health department records. The 9-year-old girl's family said Kimmie had no known pre-existing conditions.

The surges in child Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations come amid rampant debate over whether children should return to classrooms this fall, or if they should continue remote learning.

They also directly contradict US Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos' claims that children are "stoppers of the disease" who "don't get it and transmit it themselves."

And White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx has repeatedly said scientists are still studying how quickly children under the age of 10 can spread the virus, as many of them have stayed home and away from their peers during peak months of this pandemic.

But its not just the numbers of new cases and hospitalizations that are rising in Florida. The test positivity rate among children has gone up, too -- from 13.4% to 14.4% between 07.16 and 07.24, according to the state health department. The test positivity rate for children was particularly high in Martin County (25.3%) and Miami-Dade County (19.6%).

But the state has ordered schools to physically open next month. In some districts, that means sending children to school in as soon as two weeks.

***

not really sure why ppl think children are so immune. they're no more-less human than the resta us. can s/o explain ?

lfPatriotGames

I dont think too many people believe children are immune. I think it has more to do with them being less likely to get as sick and less likely to spread the disease. Also, at some point people will realize the lockdown does more harm than good. This is probably an example of that. Some people will say that the harm of keeping kids out of school is greater than the harm of putting them in school. 

But that's why we have 50 states. If something works in one state another can copy it. Depending on what the people of that state want. 

 

AlCzervik

yes, the re-openings have worked great...

RonaldJosephCote

    I would think that in 6 months, it should atart to be safe to go back to tournaments. With 3 vaccines leading the charge, and a couple more in the pipeline. tongue.png

lfPatriotGames
RonaldJosephCote wrote:

    I would think that in 6 months, it should atart to be safe to go back to tournaments. With 3 vaccines leading the charge, and a couple more in the pipeline.

Welcome back. 

I think it depends on the state. They say some will not be vaccinated until 2022. Plus it's going to depend on how effective vaccines are against the upcoming mutations and variants. Some states will probably have tournaments right away, while others might wait for another 8 to 12 months. Maybe more. 

Thee_Ghostess_Lola

sooo happy this thread is back up and running again..yee !! TY Ronald !!

chesschainmaster
RonaldJosephCote wrote:

    I would think that in 6 months, it should atart to be safe to go back to tournaments. With 3 vaccines leading the charge, and a couple more in the pipeline.

Welcome back Ron. You are more than welcome to play some chess games here. You came back to play chess right?

Richard_Ashcroft
RonaldJosephCote wrote:

    I would think that in 6 months, it should atart to be safe to go back to tournaments. With 3 vaccines leading the charge, and a couple more in the pipeline.

How do you come to the 6 month conclusion? 

At the rate people are being vaccinated now, we will be in 2022 when we have herd immunity. Having three vaccines means little if they can't be administered. 

Tourganizer

2021 everythings starting slowly slowly 😊

lfPatriotGames
Richard_Ashcroft wrote:
RonaldJosephCote wrote:

    I would think that in 6 months, it should atart to be safe to go back to tournaments. With 3 vaccines leading the charge, and a couple more in the pipeline.

How do you come to the 6 month conclusion? 

At the rate people are being vaccinated now, we will be in 2022 when we have herd immunity. Having three vaccines means little if they can't be administered. 

It all depends on how fast people are vaccinated and/or infected. Even though vaccines are not supposed to be available for kids until late 21, early 22 I still think herd immunity will happen sooner than that. My daughter tested positive yesterday (she claims "everyone" at school has it). And since she has been in lots of close contact with everyone else in the family, it's highly likely we have all been exposed. Probably a lot. So far she is the only one who has been tested and nobody has any symptoms. I'm guessing it's probably the newer strain that's easier to contract. 

It will be interesting to see how effective the vaccine is on the new strain. 

RonaldJosephCote

    Lola use to keep count of the deaths...... perhaps someone can do the same with the vaccinated. My local news last week said, about 43 million people nationwide has received the 1st dose. I know that's just a drop in the bucket, but its 43 million more people than 2 months ago. happy.png

lfPatriotGames
RonaldJosephCote wrote:

    Lola use to keep count of the deaths...... perhaps someone can do the same with the vaccinated. My local news last week said, about 43 million people nationwide has received the 1st dose. I know that's just a drop in the bucket, but its 43 million more people than 2 months ago.

Now it's over half the population. That's probably not quite herd immunity level, but close. And who knows, with mutations and variants coming and going (probably forever) maybe herd immunity isn't possible. 

What I'm curious about is the odds of everyone getting the covid, vaccinated or not. Here about 80% of covid cases are among the non vaccinated. Which means 20% are getting it even if they have the vaccine. Hospitalizations and deaths among vaccinated is very low, but it still happens.

So I'm wondering if some math geek has figured out how long is it likely to be before someone who stays vaccinated gets covid. Assuming either a 80 or 90 percent effectiveness of the vaccine, wouldn't it mean eventually everyone will get covid? I'm thinking of rolling a dice. The odds of not rolling a one are about the same as not getting covid if you are vaccinated. But you can't not roll a one every time. Eventually it will happen. Is this a reasonable analogy or can a person never get covid if they are vaccinated with a 80 or 90 percent effectiveness?

Marie-AnneLiz

After 7 months it's only 55% effective (Pfizer) right now,so you are better to get a third shot if you are very old or very vulnerable....and it's 90% of the non vaccinated in the hospitals.

Vaccine are just one of the tool and they do not last very long because some of the new variants like Delta are "smarter:.

If you got fully vaccinated in january get a third shot if you are in the group that is very vulnerable the experts say.

lfPatriotGames
Marie-AnneLiz wrote:

After 7 months it's only 55% effective (Pfizer) right now,so you are better to get a third shot if you are very old or very vulnerable....and it's 90% of the non vaccinated in the hospitals.

Vaccine are just one of the tool and they do not last very long because some of the new variants like Delta are "smarter:.

If you got fully vaccinated in january get a third shot if you are in the group that is very vulnerable the experts say.

Yes I've heard the effectiveness goes down starting in a few months. I've also heard in some places about 90% of those who get it are unvaccinated, but in some other places it's about 80%. 

So I was wondering how long it will be before everyone gets it, even if they are vaccinated. Lets say the vaccine is 90% effective, and stays 90% effective. That's still close to not getting a specific number when rolling a dice. There is about a 85% chance you will not roll any particular number. But you can't not roll it every time. Eventually you will roll that number that has a 15% chance. It seems to me, year over year, the odds of getting the covid become greater and greater even if someone has the vaccine. I was just wondering, mathwise, what timeframe that would be. 

Marie-AnneLiz

Hoard immunity is 80-85% we will get there here pretty soon....and we will have the The COVID-19 vaccination passport soon to go inside any where....and social distancing and mask...

And the 15% of non vaccinated will all have covid -19 anyway wink.png but not me!

Of course if another very contagious and deadly variant come it will not be fun.

lfPatriotGames
Marie-AnneLiz wrote:

Hoard immunity is 80-85% we will get there here pretty soon....and we will have the The COVID-19 vaccination passport soon to go inside any where....and social distancing and mask...

And the 15% of non vaccinated will all have covid -19 anyway but not me!

Of course if another very contagious and deadly variant come it will not be fun.

I was just reading an article where in the UK they tested 700,000 people and 9 out of 10 have covid antibodies. I don't think anyone can say for certain they won't get the covid. I don't know if I've had it, but I feel very confident I will someday. What I was wondering, mathematically, is if somewhere between 10 to 20 percent of people who get it are vaccinated how long will it be (I'm assuming quite a few years) before everyone gets it. Or, to put another way, what are the odd mathematically that if someone gets a 90% effective vaccine every single year, never misses it, what are the odds in, say, 10 years that they will at some point get the covid.