GothamChess And Danya Predict Who Will Win The Champions Chess Tour 2023

The highly-anticipated 2023 Champions Chess Tour Finals begin in just three days on December 9. GMs Magnus Carlsen, Hikaru Nakamura, Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, Fabiano Caruana, Wesley So, Alireza Firouzja, and Denis Lazavik are all in Toronto, Canada hoping to become the champion.

But what are each of their odds of claiming the title? Chess statistician Tai Pruce-Zimmerman crunched the numbers to find out, and there were some surprises. GM Daniel Naroditsky and IM Levy Rozman offered their own take on it all.

• Magnus Carlsen (50%)
• Fabiano Caruana (18%)
• Hikaru Nakamura (9%)
• Wesley So (7%)
• Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (7%)
• Alireza Firouzja (5%)
• Nodirbek Abdusattorov (3%)
• Denis Lazavik (0%)
• Conclusion

Magnus Carlsen – 50%

Unsurprisingly, Carlsen gets the highest odds of any one player in the field, but could they be even higher?

Danya's Take: "It almost doesn't matter who else is playing in the tournament, what Magnus' recent results were. If he's in a tournament, he is just the heavy favorite by definition. This is the respect he has earned over his years of dominance."

Levy's Take: "I almost feel 50 percent is slightly under... When Magnus participates, he wins."

Key Stats

• Carlsen won the most events of the 2023 CCT, three, and was a finalist more than any other player at four times.
• Carlsen had an 11-3 match record against the other seven finalists.

Fabiano Caruana – 18%

The biggest shock in the numbers is seeing Caruana well ahead of Nakamura, and both Naroditsky and Rozman were surprised by it as well.

Danya's Take: "We've been tracking the narrative where Fabi has been improving exponentially in rapid time controls... with that said, I still think Fabiano has a lot to prove in the rapid time control."

Levy's Take: "I have a personal disagreement with the statistics, but I also didn't crunch the numbers."

Key Stats

• Caruana was one of just two finalists who played in all six CCT events.
• Caruana won 64% of his CCT matches in 2023 but only 27% against the other finalists.

Hikaru Nakamura – 9%

Both Naroditsky and Rozman found this 9% number to be quite low, and maybe you do as well. It is true that rapid is not blitz or bullet, but a reputational analysis would give Nakamura a better chance than anyone besides Carlsen. And our analyst team said as much.

Levy's Take: "When I think Hikaru I think probably something like 20%... He and Magnus go down to the wire every single time that they play. Why is he only 9%? This is the biggest mystery to me."

Danya's Take: "If anything I would just flip the two, I would put Hikaru at 18 percent and Fabiano at nine percent."

Key Stats

• Nakamura is the oldest player in the field. He turns 36 on the first day of Finals, December 9.
• Although he and Magnus share the top two blitz rating spots (at both FIDE and Chess.com), Nakamura only ranks sixth among finalists in FIDE rapid rating as of December 1.

Wesley So – 7%

Can the 2022 Global Chess Championship tell us how So might play in these Finals? So won that event by beating Nakamura to get there, but Carlsen was not present.

Levy's Take: "He matches up really well against players, he's generally very, very well prepared... but it is still a mystery to me how he's going to perform live over the board against some of the best players in the world."

Danya's Take: "The Wesley that won the CGC finals last year and the Wesley that played in the U.S. Championship, for example, are two completely different people. I just don't see Wesley suddenly reemerging in this tournament."

Key Stats

• So was one of four finalists who only played in the top division of the CCT.
• So only won 20% of his matches against the other seven finalists during the CCT, despite winning 42% of decisive games in those matches—the largest difference of any of the eight finalists.

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave – 7%

Vachier-Lagrave earned his spot by beating Carlsen heads-up in two matches at the AI Cup. Have his chances run out?

Danya's Take: "He has the capability to win this tournament, there's no question about it. But something tells me he hasn't had enough classical practice, hasn't had enough [over-the-board] practice, so I'm a little pessimistic about MVL's chances."

Levy's Take: "We'll see how MVL does. France has two players to root for in this event but I don't fancy their chances against guys like Hikaru, Fabiano, or Magnus."

Key Stats

• Vachier-Lagrave won more 2023 CCT games against Carlsen (four) than the rest of the finalists combined (three).
• As of December 1, Vachier-Lagrave has the second-highest FIDE rapid rating of any finalist (2767), behind only Carlsen (2818).

Alireza Firouzja – 5%

Like So, Firouzja is a former world number two whose 2023 was not as good as it could have been. Is a one-in-20 chance fair, then?

Danya's Take: "We have to factor in that he hasn't played chess nearly as regularly as everybody else in the field. He's struggled in classical and he's kind of lacked that spark in his play."

Levy's Take: "I think Alireza is the biggest wildcard in the field. [His odds] could be five percent, it could be negative five percent, it could be 25 percent."

Key Stats

• Firouzja is the only player who faced every other finalist at some point in the 2023 Tour.
• Firouzja is the only finalist who lost more CCT matches than he won during the regular season, but none of those losses came against a fellow finalist.

Nodirbek Abdusattorov – 3%

Abdusattorov straight-up won one of the legs of the CCT, the ChessKid Cup, but our experts were in line with his rather low percentage.

Levy's Take: "He clearly has ice-cold water in his veins; he's going to be a fantastic competitor when the pressure is at its highest. But does he have the skillset necessary to adapt to every other player?"

Danya's Take: "While 3% is a little bit harsh, I think given some of the other competitors like Hikaru and Magnus, I actually think it's a pretty fair prediction."

Key Stats

• Abdusattorov eliminated Caruana in two of this year's CCT events (ChessKid Cup and Julius Baer Generation Cup).
• Against the other finalists, Abdusattorov won 64% of his matches during the CCT, the highest percentage of anyone besides Carlsen (79%).

Denis Lazavik – 0%

The clear underdog, but are his chances literally zero percent?

Levy's Take: "This is the most disrespectful statistic I have ever seen in my life! I almost wish the stats team added decimals. Is it 0.4% and they just rounded down?"

Danya's Take: "It's harsh, but if Lazavik manages to win this tournament, this will be talked about for years to come."

Key Stats

• Lazavik is the only player to not make the final of any event and yet qualify for the 2023 CCT Tour Finals (by tour points).
• At 17, Lazavik is the youngest player in the field.

Conclusion

After watching the video and seeing the stats, what is your prediction for the CCT Finals? Let us know in the comments!