Candidates 2022: Who Will Win?
As the 2022 Candidates draws nearer, it's time for me to put on my prediction cap and try to predict a winner. I failed miserably last time, predicting Ian Nepomniachtchi for a clear winner. He was crushed by a Mr. Magnus Carlsen, who (as you probably know) is the World Champion of Chess. Let's hope that I can make a better prediction this time!
The Format
- Eight players compete in a double round-robin tournament (14 rounds)
- Time control: 120 minutes for the first 40 moves, 50 minutes for the next 20 moves, then 15 minutes for the rest of the game with a 30-second increment per move starting on move one.
- Draws by mutual agreement are not allowed before Black's 40th move
- Players earn 1 point for a win, 0.5 points for a draw, and 0 points for a loss
- The player with the most points at the end of the 14 rounds becomes the champion
- The winner earns the right to face Carlsen in the 2023 FIDE World Chess Championship.
Tiebreaks
If there is a tie for first place, tiebreaks consist of up to three stages:
Stage 1
- If two players are tied, a 15+10 two-game match is played between them, with a drawing of lots determining the colors for the first game.
- If three to six players are tied, a single round-robin tournament with a 15+10 time control is played among the tied players
- If seven or eight players are tied, a single round-robin tournament with a 10+5 time control is played among the tied players.
Stage 2
If a tie for first place persists after stage one, stage two commences:
- If two players are tied, a 3+2 two-game match breaks the tie, with a drawing of lots deciding the starting colors.
- If more than two players are tied, a single round-robin tournament with a 3+2 time control is played.
Stage 3
If a tie for first place persists after stage two, stage three commences:
- A knockout tournament decides the winner.
- If there are more than two players the bracket is determined by a drawing of lots.
- Each match of the knockout tournament consists of a single 3+2 game, with colors determined by a drawing of lots.
- If any game of the knockout ends in a draw, players keep alternating colors and playing 3+2 games until a decisive game determines the winner.
The format has changed since last time:
The players will have 20 more minutes to make their first 40 moves. This is obviously a minor difference, but hey, maybe it'll matter. A bigger difference is rapid and blitz tiebreaks for a tie. This will make a difference!
The complete rules may be found here.
Prizes
The 2022 Candidates Tournament has a minimum prize fund of €500,000, distributed as follows:
- 1st: €48,000
- 2nd: €36,000
- 3rd: €24,000
The prize money is divided equally among players with an equal score after 14 rounds. Players also receive €3,500 for every half-point they score.
Do you realize what this means? This is an exceptional time for chess. People are getting paid almost $4000 to draw a chess game! In 1960, Petrosian earned $2000 to win the WCC. This is just incredible. The event is sponsored by Mr. Mark Scheinberg, who made billions of a poker website. So the 2022 Candidates will be sponsored by a chess website and by the owner of a poker website!
Location
The Candidates will be held in Madrid, in the Palacio de Santoña. It is literally a palace. It was built in 1730.
Players
As you can see, we have a powerful field. Two of these players were world championship contenders, and all are over 2700. Let's review the players, and then I can make my predictions.
#1. Ding Liren
Ding Liren is a superstar. He's been in the world top 5 since February 2019, has the 12th highest rating in history, and is simply a pro. In 2009, while Ding still was not a GM, he won the Chinese Chess Championship at 16. That's near the level of Fischer's performances in the USA. In the last Candidates, Ding came fifth with a break-even score. However: this will be Ding's first event on foreign soil since the 2021 Candidates, so he may be out of practice. We'll see. Ding's qualification was unusual, as Karjakin would have played, but was banned by FIDE for pro-Russian statements.
If He Wins?
Last year, Magnus made the dramatic statement that Liren was one of the two people who could challenge him. If Liren wins, Magnus will have to play him or look like a coward.
#2. Alireza Firoujza
Firouzja is literally unbelievable. He rose to the top of the rankings last fall/winter, crushing the competition at the Grand Swiss with 8/11, and then won the European Team Championship with 8/9. In my eyes, Firo is a strong future candidate for the Greatest Ever title. He's even the youngest to cross 2800. However, will he be this strong in the Candidates?
If He Wins?
If Firouzja wins, we'll have a match. Carlsen said that he wanted to play a younger player, specifically Firo. So he's the one winner who guarantees a match.
#3. Fabiano Caruana
Fabiano won the 2018 event, and held Magnus off 12 games straight in the World Championship, crumbling in the rapid. He qualified by coming second in the Grand Swiss, beating Firouzja and showing that the older players still have chances. This will be his fourth consecutive Candidates.
If He Wins?
As Nathaniel Green put it, "Caruana was, with Ding, the other player Carlsen said in 2021 would pose the biggest challenge to his world championship crown. It's not difficult to figure out why, as Caruana nearly pulled it off once already, drawing every game in 2018 and coming so close to winning the sixth game. At that time, Carlsen admitted Caruana had an equal right to the claim of the best player in the world at slower time controls. It's hard to imagine Carlsen getting no motivation from the idea of beating Caruana in the classical stage of the match. "
#4. Ian Nepomniachtchi
The Russian with the long name has a record with Magnus. He won the Candidates last year to face him and lose epically. Unfortunately, I don't think he has it to win again, despite being a strong player. He's still amazing, but somewhat flaky. At standard time controls, he has positive scores against GM Vladimir Kramnik (+5 -4 =4), GM Viswanathan Anand (+3 -2 =5), and even had a winning record against Carlsen (+4 -1 =6, with two wins coming during their youth careers) before their 2021 match. Nepomniachtchi also has positive records against GM Anatoly Karpov (+2 -0 =0 in 2013) and GM Garry Kasparov (+2 -0 =3 from 2017-21) in rapid/blitz, the only formats he has played them in.
If He Wins?
In the unlikely circumstance that he wins, I don't think Magnus will play him. What else is there to prove? He beat him 4-0, not counting draws.
#5. Richard Rapport
He's the dark horse of the event. He's a younger player, and perhaps underestimated. I'd never have picked him to be playing this one two years ago. In the last few months, he's played with great skill to bring himself in.
If He Wins?
It's not obvious what Magnus would do. He doesn't want to beat people repeatedly, and Rapport is a younger player. I'd say it's a 3/4 chance Magnus would play Rapport.
#6. Hikaru Nakamura
Hikaru isn't who I'd have predicted to be in. But it makes sense when you think of it. Playing all this blitz/bullet has made him very sharp and alert. He played the 2016 Candidates, and I thought he'd never play another. But he proved me wrong, and I'm glad. He was also the second-highest rated in the world, so we'll see.
If He Wins?
We'll see a match. Magnus and Hikaru are rivals, and it would be a battle.
#7. Jan-Krystof Duda
He won the World Cup, catapulting himself into the tournament. He's one of the younger Super-GMs, and is fairly consistent. He got FM at 10, and GM at 15. We'll see how he does. He's the only one who got here by winning the World Cup and beating Magnus Carlsen himself! He's an exciting young star.
If He Wins?
My sense is that Magnus would want to revenge himself on Duda from the World Cup, so he'd most likely play.
#8. Teimour Radjabov
Radjabov is an unknown factor. He was invited by FIDE to play the 2022 Candidates after qualifying for the previous edition of the event and refusing to participate due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
If He Wins?
Magnus probably won't play him. He's not very young or exciting as a chess player,
Now that I've gone over the players, it's prediction time.
Prediction Time!
#8. Teimour Radjabov 1%
Sorry, I don't think he has a chance. The reason he'll be interesting is that he could cause some upsets, but I don't think he'll win it all.
#7. Ian Nepomniachtchi (4%)
I don't think he has it in him to win twice in a row. Yet he'll still be a very interesting factor. He will definitely provide some interesting upsetsl
#6. Jan-Krystof Duda (7%)
He could possibly win, but I don't expect it. He will definitely be something to watch in future Candidates Tournaments.
#5. Richard Rapport (9%)
He's definitely the dark horse player. If I would bet on one outside player, it's Rapport. He's just very interesting and dynamic.
#4. Ding Liren (16%)
This prediction is highly vulnerable to being wrong. I'm not sure about him, so I don't want to say too much. But he definitely has it in him to win.
#3. Hikaru Nakamura (16%)
Will he win or will he lose? He's shown himself to be a very strong player, online and OTB. I wouldn't bet against him.
#2. Fabiano Caruana (23%)
Fabiano's a beast! He's certainly not perfect, but he is my second place prediction. Let's go Fabiano for the American win!
#1. Alireza Firouzja (24%)
And my top prediction for the winner of the 2022 Candidates Tournament:
Yup, this young man is a pro! He's got it in him to win it all!
My Prediction Graph
Thanks for reading this, and I intend to continue blogging in the future!
Luke.
