2024 Candidates

Round 1:

All games were drawn, but there was plenty of fighting chess.

FIDE Candidates 2024 Round 1: The Candidates Opens With An Abundance of Fighting Spirit - Chess.com

I can only report the facts.

... well...

... actually, I could make up all sorts of dumb crap, but people already think I'm going senile.

🎶 I am one of them, and so are you 🎶

All games looking drawish at the moment

All 4 games decisive today. I'm sure they won't mantain a 50% win rate, I predict by tournaments end it will be about 25%.

@7
In the 56 games of the 2022 Candidates' there were 33 draws, 14 white wins, and 9 black wins.

I felt sorry for Abasov in his Round 2 game against Caruana. 34...Bxb3 made sense strategically: trade off pieces, then each side's weak pawns on the queenside will drop off, and we're left with a symmetrical 2v2 structure on the kingside which will probably end in a draw.

But trading the bishop left the f1 square unguarded, Fabi's other rook swung across, and suddenly it's Game Over because of the invasion down the f-file.

A 2600 GM forgot to ask himself, "Okay, let's think about 34...Bxb3. It trades off pieces, which I want, but what are all the other things that move does?"

We've all been there

41% wins seems high for a tournament at this level. I haven't checked an average for this event over a longer period, maybe it's normal.

I feel that percentage was high due to Nepo breaking away. And as only being first in the Candidates matters (the second place mattered after all, but only due to Magnus not defending his title), people played more risky in order to catch him. Because of that, we had more decisive games than usually.

I'd like to see Nepo win again. He's won it back to back proving he's not a one hit wonder. A three threepeat would be amazing. He lost that match not because Ding is better, far from it, he lost a fuggin speed game. One. Ding never even won the candidates once. Not one time. Ridiculous. Nepo has proven he deserves to be wc if Magnus ain't gonna play.

I'm a Nepo fan, too.

To be fair, I don't like that it happened like that either. On the other hand, Nepo had basically had it under wraps but then lost that completely winning classical game that was a rollercoaster (I think he could have been up by 2 at that point had he won), so even though it is harsh, Ding was less unstable when all was said and done.

I feel that both were at least somewhat nervous before that match because they certainly viewed it as an incredible opportunity because Magnus is not playing, and that impacted the match.

Also, most of their prep would have been for Magnus, not for the opponent they actually faced.

Apart from this massive blunder, I think Abasov played really well in both games. Certainly better than I expected. His game against Hikaru will be interesting psychologically. Both could be in meltdown mode or bounce back. Good shedule for Hikaru to play the potentially worst player with black after that loss. A win with black could put him right back into "I got this" mode.Once again I'm looking forward to all games, Abasov - Hikaru is almost do or die for Hikaru already.

Alireza Firouzja - Fabiano Caruana

Fabi looked very solid so far, basically always playing in "either I win or worst case we draw" mode. Alireza has played pretty fierce but is under a lot of pressure after the loss. I expect some attempts at fireworks with white. I think this is a good spot for Fabi as he'll be very well prepared and fight of the likely overcommiting attack. I would be very impressed if Alireza would show the maturity to go for a stable game but I think Fabi will calmly defend and draw with winning chances.

Gukesh - Nepo

Gukesh has looked like a beast so far. I think Nepo will play it intelligently and try to aim for a safe-ish draw given the momentum. Rooting for Gukesh here but I think we'll see a cold blooded and masterfully prepared black drawing.

Vidit Santosh Gujrathi - Praggnanandhaa R

Vidit has played strong and calm, and had the best first two days coming out 1.5 after two black games. I didn't expect Pragg to lose in the clash of the youngsters and I'm very interested to see how he'll handle this psychologically. I really liked his style on both games and I think he'll come out swinging again.

That makes sense as well. In any case, Magnus impacted that match in a massive way, however we may look at it.

@16

"Also, most of their prep would have been for Magnus, not for the opponent they actually faced."
++ No. Magnus made it clear he would not defend his title. Moreover they first prepare for the Candidates' and only after winning it they start their months of preperation for the title match.

@11

"I feel that percentage was high due to Nepo breaking away."
++ The same may happen now. The 4 leaders can coast and take draws. The 4 trailers must win twice to catch up with the leaders, so will need to take risks that will lead to more losses.

Open:

Abasov 1/2 - Hikaru 1/2 Gueens Gambit: Exchange Slav. Just a boring draw.

Gukesh 1/2 - Nepo 1/2 Gueens Gambit: Catalan. Another boring draw.

Alireza 1/2 - Caruana 1/2 Scicilian: Rossolimo. Provocative play from Caruana - Interesting game.

Vidit 0 - Prag 1 Spanish: Ruy Lopez huge sideline. Very aggressive and nuance from Prag - Great game.