Who The Stats Say Will Be The Next World Championship Challenger

As eight of the world's very best grandmasters—GMs Fabiano Caruana, Hikaru Nakamura, Alireza Firouzja, Ian Nepomniachtchi, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, Gukesh Dommaraju, Vidit Gujrathi, and Nijat Abasov—descend on Toronto, Canada for the 2024 Candidates Tournament, only one can emerge with the rights to face GM Ding Liren in the 2024 FIDE World Championship.

But who will it be? That's the question we're looking at today. Below, you can see the odds that each of these stars takes one step closer to the glory of becoming a world champion, and read on to find out why. Many thanks to Tai Pruce-Zimmerman (@chessnumbers) for running the numbers!

In addition to the stats, four grandmasters have graciously offered their thoughts on the favorites, underdogs, and everyone in between: commentators extraordinaire GM David Howell and GM Robert Hess, 12th women's world champion GM Alexandra Kosteniuk, and Chess.com resident GM Rafael Leitao. Our thanks to all of these brilliant players!

Note: Stats are based on players' official March 2024 ratings.

• • Fabiano Caruana (36%)
  • Hikaru Nakamura (25%)
  • Alireza Firouzja (11%)
  • Ian Nepomniachtchi (10%)
  • Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu (8%)
  • Gukesh Dommaraju (7%)
  • Vidit Gujrathi (4%)
  • Nijat Abasov (<1%)
  • Conclusion

Caruana – 36.1%

Caruana is the only player in the world, besides GM Magnus Carlsen, who enters the Candidates Tournament maintaining a 2800 rating. He also has by far the most Candidates Tournament experience in the field, with 2024 being his fifth straight. It all adds up to some very high expectations for the three-time U.S. champion.

Do GMs Agree?

Most of our grandmasters agreed with the stats that Caruana is the single favorite in the tournament. 

• Hess: "I believe Fabi should be the favorite, as his elite preparation and calculation are proven ingredients for success. Yet, in a field this competitive... would he really win this event a bit more than every third time?"
• Howell: "He's been here and he's done it before. Fabi was one of the form players of 2023... He looks calm, consistent, and focused."
• Kosteniuk: "Although I don't like giving predictions in general... Caruana has been showing very consistent results in the last year and clearly is the main contender to win this tournament."
• Leitao: "He was the best chess player in the world in 2023 and continues to be in great form. He is my pick for winner of the tournament."

Although I don't like giving predictions in general... Caruana has been showing very consistent results in the last year and clearly is the main contender to win this tournament.

—GM Alexandra Kosteniuk

Caruana Key Facts & Stats

• Highest performance rating in 2023, ahead of Nakamura and Carlsen
• Has played 96 classical games against the other candidates combined, the most in the field.

Nakamura – 24.7%

By rating, Nakamura is easily one of the top two players in the Candidates, on a margin of almost 30 points over Firouzja. Nakamura has been in the world's top five every month for a year and, after Caruana, has the tournament's best chance at advancing to the World Championship.

Do GMs Agree?

• Hess: "This feels about right, as Hikaru has been on a rampage, winning tournaments in all time controls... Hikaru also has a history of dominance against less experienced players, which should keep his chances high."
• Howell: "A few years ago I would have said that it's hard to know what to expect from Nakamura. Especially in a big event like the Candidates with such high stakes. In recent times, however, he just constantly looks like he's in the zone. He rarely ever loses (solidity has been a common trait among those who have won the last few Candidates Tournaments)... and he's turned winning into a habit."
• Kosteniuk: "I'm always impressed by Hikaru's ability to combine top level chess with streaming and recording recaps including during the Candidates. But I'm still quite skeptical about such a high probability."
• Leitao: "Becoming world champion is not his priority, unlike the other participants in the tournament."

Nakamura just constantly looks like he's in the zone... and he's turned winning into a habit.

—GM David Howell

Nakamura Key Facts & Stats

• Enters Candidates on 46-game unbeaten streak in classical chess
• Five-time U.S. champion and four-time Gibraltar Masters champion

Firouzja – 10.6%

The youngest of the four players who has been in a Candidates before, and one of just three participants who has ever been rated 2800, Firouzja has the third-best statistical chances to win the event. Still, he finds himself closer to the rest of the field than to the top two of Caruana and Nakamura.

Do GMs Agree?

The grandmasters were rather split on Firouzja's chances. 

• Hess: "He can beat (read: crush) anyone on the planet in any game. But his swashbuckling style can also be his kryptonite when calm is called for."
• Howell: "I am a huge fan of Alireza, and he's a joy to watch when he's in form. The past twelve months have been up and down though... 10.6% feels roughly right, though I'm surprised that his chances are rated higher than those of Ian Nepomniachtchi."
• Kosteniuk: "Firouzja is a 'dark horse' for me in this competition. But I wouldn't not put him higher than for example Pragg in this event."
• Leitao: "Firouzja learned a lot from what happened in the previous Candidates Tournament. He has more experience and apparently chess is back to being a priority... If I had to make a bet with these odds, he would be my choice for a value bet."

If I had to make a bet with these odds, Firouzja would be my choice for a value bet.

—GM Rafael Leitao

Firouzja Key Facts & Stats

• Youngest 2800-rated player in history
• One of two players in the field who has ever changed federations (Caruana)

Nepomniachtchi – 10.4%

Nepomniachtchi has won this tournament twice in a row, his first two times playing in it. Statistically speaking, however, this fact neither increases or decreases his odds of winning a third time in a row, and he is just a fraction less likely than Firouzja to take the tournament.

Do GMs Agree?

There was perhaps no greater disagreement between the grandmasters and the percentages than with Nepomniachtchi. 

• Hess: "This percentage almost feels disrespectful! Nepo has won this event twice in a row, no matter the circumstances or the odds. He brings incredible preparation and a fiery attitude. His rating has taken a tumble, but he's known that this would be his most important tournament since he lost a heartbreaker to Ding."
• Howell: "I feel he's right up there with Caruana and Nakamura as the 'Big 3' in terms of being a favorite."
• Kosteniuk: "We've seen Ian winning two last Candidates and playing two last world championship matches, narrowly missing in his last attempt. Nevertheless for some reason we tend to underestimate his chances."
• Leitao: "I think he is in the same tier as Firouzja and Nakamura."

This percentage almost feels disrespectful!

—GM Robert Hess

Nepomniachtchi Key Facts & Stats

• Two-time Russian champion, winning 10 years apart in 2010 and 2020
• Peak live rating of 2799.8, highest-ever not to crack 2800

Praggnanandhaa – 7.7%

The ranking of the three Indian players in the field has been constantly shuffling in the past few months—in fact, in the official March rankings, all three of them were rated exactly 2747—but as we enter the Candidates, it is Praggnanandhaa who finds himself at the top of the numbers hierarchy. 

Do GMs Agree?

Howell and Kosteniuk were very high on Praggnanandhaa as well, while Hess and Leitao have all three Indian players about the same—a reflection of their bunched-together ratings.

• Hess: "While Pragg is a national hero and a fan favorite that rarely loses... he's so young and doesn't have experience winning numerous classical games in a grueling event against the 2750+ crowd who have prepared for this event for months, if not years."
• Howell: "Pragg has great nerves, a very flexible opening repertoire, and is so universal. All key ingredients for a successful Candidates campaign... 7.7% feels fair. Overall victory feels like it would be too much to expect at this point in his career, but I could definitely see him in the top half."
• Kosteniuk: "He is young, ambitious, and can allow himself to play without too much pressure and thoughts about the result."
• Leitao: "Praggnanandhaa improved a lot in the last two years, but he still too young to win it."

Pragg has great nerves, a very flexible opening repertoire, and is so universal. All key ingredients for a successful Candidates campaign.

—GM David Howell

Praggnanandhaa Key Facts & Stats

• Three-time World Youth Championship winner who was an international master at age 10
• Youngest-ever World Cup semifinalist and finalist

Gukesh – 6.5%

Gukesh is only 17 years old, the youngest player in the tournament. Of the three Indian players, he is the only one who has cracked a 2750 rating so far, becoming the first Indian player in 37 years to surpass GM Viswanathan Anand, but he has lost a few points since then. And that seems to be reflected in his stats.

Do GMs Agree?

Not surprising for the youngest player, all four grandmasters were a bit worried about Gukesh's chances, but not for talent reasons.

• Hess: "Gukesh's resilience is admirable. I got the sense that he was trying too hard at the Grand Swiss, where he suffered a massive setback just when it seemed like he could do no wrong. He then stormed back in Chennai and Wijk aan Zee... That kind of variance can be useful when it's win or go home, so he does have legitimate chances."
• Howell: "It would send shockwaves around the world if a 17-year-old qualified for the world championship match! [But] he tends to play quite high-risk chess, which historically hasn't been the recipe for success in the Candidates."
• Kosteniuk: "It's always hard to predict results from youngsters, so I'm just looking forward to seeing him performing in his first Candidates."
• Leitao: "Gukesh's game has shown some signs of instability recently and this is something he needs to solve before the tournament starts." 

It's always hard to predict results from youngsters, so I'm just looking forward to seeing him performing in his first Candidates.

—GM Alexandra Kosteniuk

Gukesh Key Facts & Stats

• Youngest player ever to reach a rating of 2750+
• Third-youngest candidate in history (behind GMs Bobby Fischer and Magnus Carlsen)

Vidit – 4.0%

Vidit stumbled in March with a 3/9 finish at the Prague Masters, giving him the second-lowest rating in the field as the tournament begins. While bad performances before the Candidates historically don't mean very much, Vidit's statistical odds are not as high as they would have been with a higher rating.

Do GMs Agree?

• Hess: "Vidit has proven that he can win a major event, but the level of opposition in the Candidates is just so much higher, making him an unlikely winner. For context: at the Grand Swiss, he faced just two players above 2700 FIDE."
• Howell: "His openings have always been world-class, he's always been tactically sharp, but it feels like he has made huge strides in more technical positions... 4% feels a bit on the low side... but it would certainly be a major shock if he won the whole tournament."
• Kosteniuk: "It won't be an easy tournament for him, but when predicting lower numbers I'm always happy if I will be proven wrong."
• Leitao: "Definitely the most underrated player. From what I've seen of Vidit's game recently, he's not behind his two compatriots, with the advantage of being a more mature player.

Definitely the most underrated player... he's not behind his two compatriots, with the advantage of being a more mature player.

—GM Rafael Leitao

Vidit Key Facts & Stats

• At 29, is oldest of the four first-time participants in the field
• Made consecutive World Cup quarterfinals in 2021 and 2023

Abasov – 0.07%

Yes, out of 10,000 simulations, Abasov won the tournament a grand total of seven times. His rating is more than 110 points lower than anyone else in the field, giving him a major uphill battle.

Do GMs Agree?

You might expect the GM panel to agree with Abasov's low odds... and they do. 

• Hess: "Abasov is simply happy to be here. He truthfully has zero chance of winning this event, but will determine who in fact challenges for the world championship... All other participants must respect Abasov, but some will aim to beat him twice."
• Howell: "If anything, his chances will lie in the fact that everyone will be pushing so hard against him. His openings are often quite offbeat and creative too, so I think he will provide some entertainment no matter what."
• Kosteniuk: "For the moment Abasov's performance in the World Cup 2023 is his biggest result of his career, so let's see how he is going to play here."
• Leitao: "He won't win the Candidates, that's for sure, but he might score a good win against some of the most famous players."

Abasov truthfully has zero chance of winning this event, but will determine who in fact challenges for the world championship. 

—GM Robert Hess

Abasov Key Facts & Stats

• Was 69th seed in the World Cup before finishing in fourth place
• Has played 13 combined classical games against the other candidates, the fewest in the field

Conclusion

If you want even more expert opinions, GM Daniel Naroditsky posted his thoughts on Reddit, and even Carlsen himself was interviewed by Howell below:

It is pretty clear that the expectations on Caruana are stratospheric, but he has met such expectations before. If it doesn't happen for him, the numbers may like Nakamura next, but other grandmasters see Nepomniachtchi as bigger threat. Firouzja may be the least predictable player in the field. The Indian players total 18.5% in their chances, but it's almost impossible to say which one of them specifically might surprise.

Who do you think will win the Candidates and why? Let us know in the comments!